The rate that stops the nation… for real this time!

The proper way to atone for prior missteps is not to whine and make regretful noises, but to make sure to get it correct the next time!

So here we are on another Tuesday, gearing up to watch the rate that stops the nation. …or at least the economic zone.

Let’s have at it

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emusplatt

25bips…jes coz

Freddy

Yes 25bps. CBs are making their next big mistake with smaller rate rises. Markets are partying again and we will end up with an even higher terminal rate.

DictatorDavid

Anything other than 50bps will be a fucking mockery

Gouda

Should really be 75-100bps, but we know that’s never going to happen.

Gouda

25bps just announced, so mockery it is.

Last edited 4 months ago by Gouda
emusplatt

lowe: “of course it is different this time”
/s

emusplatt

hey …it is different this time…it’s never been worse

DictatorDavid

Do you think that every time RBA hikes 25bps and Fed hikes 75 that there is anyone feeling of anxiety or guilt in the RBA. Like the day after you sleep with something you really shouldn’t have?

Reus's Large MEMBER

Being that they have long experience with rooting the populace without lube, I am very sure that there is zero regret from them

DictatorDavid

Considering the Fed is using language about having to keep hiking hard to avoid an even “more severe recession”. It makes you wonder how fucked we might be here. Australia seems to be stuck with this economic exceptionalism and are still talking about a soft landing. Will we be so lucky this time?

Reus's Large MEMBER

Short answer is no, but they will print like mofo’s in order to try to save it.

bjw678

 is using language about having to keep hiking hard to avoid an even “more severe recession”. 

Whatever they are saying they are hiking hard to cause a recession. That is how inflation will be driven down.

Reus's Large MEMBER

If you were to destroy the financial system and the economy would you have done anything different to what they did so far?

bjw678

Sure,
crank interest rates to 20%+ 30 years ago and leave them there.

Stewie

We must destroy the village to save the village

The RBA can’t respond or follow the Fed higher – the only release valve left in the system is the AUD…. if the Fed keeps hiking, and hiking for a while, do not be surprised to see the AUD fall to the mid 40c.

bjw678

It’s a rock and a hard place though.
Higher rates and a low AUD will both fuck the place, just in different ways.

Last edited 4 months ago by bjw678
Stewie

On the other hand, a crashing AUD is far less appealing to the predatory migrant that is simply scouring the global for the best economy to affix themselves too.

Yeah offshore buyers might find our housing more attractive, but just how many nations currencies are going to be falling slower than the AUD. The US is strangling them all. The UK has similar lending term structures as Australia, hence they’re going to be in a similar position as ourselves – no real benefit to the expats living there.

Stewie

True but of the two I would prefer a lower AUD – it puts less of a crimp on inelastic consumer spending, in terms of food, rent and local services. We all still have to eat and catch trains, etc. Cost of goods may sky rocket, but they’re gunna do that anyways. But yeah, compared to the Fed they have far fewer options open to them.

bjw678

True but of the two I would prefer a lower AUD – it puts less of a crimp on inelastic consumer spending, in terms of food, rent and local services.

I think a low AUD will impact those more than you are thinking, and local “services” are likely to be the first things jettisoned in hard times given they are mostly luxuries.

bjw678

Energy prices, quite a bit of food is imported(especially the cheaper options), along with packaging for locally produced.
Any and all consumer goods given we make nothing any more, so kitchen appliances, clothes, tv’s, baby products, furniture and on and on.
New car prices will push up so used car prices will also push up higher again on further increased demand.
Even something as basic as steel is heavily imported now.

The90kwbeast

Are you kidding? We make nothing here anymore, practically. And anything we do make that is exported, locals pay export prices anyway which will be jacked up “because inflation”

Ergo EVERYTHING is impacted.

emusplatt

+umpteen to this..”locals pay export prices…”

Stewie

I’d agree that our lack of domestic manufacturing would hurt us more relatively than other countries, that will also be in the same boat as us.

bjw678

very little of that stuff is imported, 

Quite a lot of it is, especially the cheaper options. That will be the killer. If you think food is not imported you haven’t spent much time looking at labelling in the supermarket.
As always the relatively wealthy won;t have it bad, the poor will just get shafted.

bjw678

Quite a bit of meat is imported from https://scottsdalepork.com.au/blog/where-is-your-pork-coming-from

However, it may surprise you to find that the majority of ham and bacon sold in Australia – around 75% – is made from imported pork!

Fresh fruit and veg cost quite a bit more than the imported canned stuff, and given how much ostensibly fresh is frozen it wouldn’t surprise me if quite a bit is imported as well.
How much people are effected depends on income as always, as your reference to restaurants show. The people who are going to be impacted are not regularly going to restaurants.

The effects are at the margins, but the margins are what matter. People who are barely able to afford their mortgage aren’t eating a diet of predominantly fresh fruit and meat. They are eating cheaply and if the cheap stuff goes up they may no longer be able to afford that mortgage.

Last edited 4 months ago by bjw678
bjw678

I agree that the margins matter, but I think you’re overestimating the impact on things like food.

And I think you are underestimating, especially for the lower income brackets.

m trying to explain how the supermarket and green grocer food is local, not just the restaurant food.

The higher cost nice supermarket and green grocer food. The cheaper stuff is almost always imported.

Also from the maker pushing it’s australianness

Scottsdale Pork ham and Bacon doesn’t have a completely full bar chart (see below) – you’ll be unlikely to find any that does. This is because the brines and salts used in the curing and smoking processes are not produced in Australia.

How hard can it be to make brine and salts…

Also the label made in australia doesn’t actually mean very much.

CoOL (Country of Origin) Labelling – that’s the green and gold kangaroo logo you can find on products made in Australia – can be very confusing.

This only shows that the product was made in Australia, not necessarily made using Australian grown pork. The product can be made from imported pork and still use this image on it’s label.

And of course we have the argument that basic foods are already inflating heavily. MY shopping bill has increased massively in the last year. What do you think the cause is if it’s all local peachy? Wages?

Last edited 4 months ago by bjw678
bjw678

https://healthyeating.sfgate.com/eating-habits-lowincome-populations-11376.html

I also can’t help but note that the AUD has fallen significantly in the last year and grocery bills have climbed significantly in the same timeframe.

emusplatt

uh huh, and quite a bit….transport and whatnot getting it in the neck with diesel cost

The90kwbeast

Lower AUD increases fuel costs which drive machinery to harvest, transport and distribute food.

Some food is imported.

Alcohol – will go up indirectly because wages will go up, because everything else goes up. But yes not directly AUD impacted

Transport – you’re forgetting fuel and power costs respectively. We have more and more imported parts and machinery.

Utilities – are you living under a rock? Everything is privatised and we’re obviously paying export prices for everything we do produce.

In summation I’m not sure how you went from “inflation is the devil” to “a lower AUD won’t drive much inflation”

It will absolutely drive inflation just like 10 years ago the high dollar reduced inflation via cheap imports

emusplatt

and a quiet query from me…how is ezfka growing this affordable food with fertiliser prices where they are? …and prices will be rising further I fear.

How is ezfka going to maintain its machinery fleet?
imported spares are usurious now and getting worse.

New machinery is becoming out of the question.

$7/kg for seconds carrots?

570/t wheat?

Freddy

I can’t see RBA letting AUD go that low. The same way we lost manufacturing due to higher AUD, a low AUD will also kill off many companies. Inflation on imports, debt denominated in USD, etc.

I am cheering on much higher US interest rates and RBA forced to defend AUD. That is worst case scenario for Aus propadee.

Freddy

5% then back down to 2% all within 24 months

Something drastic would need to happen. Bond markets are over 4% all the way out.
United States Government Bonds – Yields Curve (worldgovernmentbonds.com)

Australia not far behind at the long end implying rates will converge.
Bonds – prices (asx.com.au)

I do believe that capitalism needs a solid positive interest rate in order to function

Agreed. I would add higher taxes. Or rather, taxes better spent. Scrap superannuation. The 10% employer contribution plus all the money saved on super tax concessions for the rich are more than enough to fund a decent retirement and healthcare for all retirees. Of course Labor will share that pool of money with immigrant parents ffs.

Aussie Soy Boy

A Honda Civic is already a $50k car it’ll be $65k if we have a dollar in the 40s.

Stewie

It may not, it all depends on how much of the village the US wants to burn down in order to save the village. I would put the chances higher than most people think, especially if they strangle it enough to cause a commodity collapse.

DictatorDavid

..

Last edited 4 months ago by DictatorDavid
DictatorDavid

Do you think that every time RBA hikes 25bps and Fed hikes 75 that there is anyone feeling of anxiety or guilt in the RBA. Like the day after you sleep with something you really shouldn’t have?

emusplatt

pandemic amnesty? 😂 😂 😂

“….Emily Oster may have said a few reasonable things in the depths of her pandemic moderation, but she can take her proposal for pandemic amnesty and shove it all the way up her ass. I’m never going to forget what these villains did to me and my friends…..”

https://www.eugyppius.com/p/emily-oster-proposes-a-pandemic-amnesty?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=268621&post_id=81752867&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

lswchp

I read that this morning, and I wholeheartedly concur with his sentiments.

The covid tyrants, and I include my ex employers in this, can go fuck themselves

I’ll never forget and never forgive.

Jam

Right on brother. I too will never forget.

Coughid really shone a light on numerous facets of this disfunctional place called EZFKA

lswchp
lswchp

Aaannnnd….the Bad Cat gives Oster both barrels, follows up with a butt stroke, thrusts in the bayonet and furiously stomps on her corpse.

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/emily-osters-no-good-really-bad-terrible?utm_medium=reader2

Agent 47

Forgiveness?

Revenge is the term I’m looking for.

Reus's Large MEMBER

Hear Hear, I want jail time for the ones that pushed the crap on us.

Fly in your ointment

In this country this shall be when never happens, or not even then.
Besides, greasing up pikes with polies is like shooting the messenger (‘zdat an upside down pun?) to protect those whose name shall never be said,

G h

I understand that ezfka is largely a place to comment and hang out and bounce ideas and links around, however I do miss more of the longer pieces, including the satire, which in my view has huge potential for bringing over new readers and commenters.

robert2013

Anyone can post. You too.

lswchp

Meanwhile, tyranny with a cool name creeps a little closer in the UK….

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/30/oxford-has-gone-back-feudalism/

T

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emusplatt

oster can get fkt

Jam

Guaranteed to have a closet fall of tiny hats.

lswchp

I’m thinking natural justice. Impalement. Heads on spikes. That sort of thing.

Coming

much more exciting than the melbourne cup isnt it

instead of some horse breaking its leg and getting the curtain put up around it, we will have the same thing happen to “savers” or FHBs

T

lol…

T

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T

probably why she was turfed the way it went down. when you’re phone is being admitted into un security council meeting as evidence of a terrorist attack – bad look 🙁

T

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T

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Coming

surely a representative sample

T

yeah should have gone with anonymous sources instead…

Freddy

Nice to know that even in a biased survey where a tiny portion of unvaccinated population make up 37% of respondents, that the majority of people who got vaccinated would do it again.

Cedric Coxwallow

They’re either deluded or employing ‘cope’.Nothing stopping them from boostering themselves to infinity.
Please get boosted people! enjoy your shit health and reduced lifespan.

Coming

this is kind of the same phenomenon as people who put ukrainian flags and 3 syringes in their twitter bio

Its a way for people to feel very special, when in fact they are ordinary

“im an exceptionally rare unvaccinated person who is far superior to these other people”

The reality is the vaccine made almost zero difference to anybody in either direction

MR coal

except all the people that died from it.

Coming

and for the 99.99% of people who didn’t die from either covid or the jab?

bjw678

I guess they are in the same boat as the 99.99% of people who didn’t get birth defects from thalidomide…

Coming

I don’t usually reply to you for obvious reasons

but thought this might be instructive for the general ezfka’er

Almost every mother who used thalidomide got birth defects in their child
Even after one single tablet

Which is why it is not even remotely comparable you absolute imbecile

bjw678

who’s areshole did you pull 99.99% out of?
Excess deaths are much higher than that in the UK health data, and only in those who have been vaccinated.
Strangely the covid caused myocarditis you keep going on about seems to only be effecting those who have been vaxxed.

Freddy

You should do some similar analysis on RSA. Explain where all these excess deaths came from pre-vaccine.

Report on Weekly Deaths in South Africa | South African Medical Research Council (samrc.ac.za)

bjw678

IF you can find the raw data somewhere then I might have a look. My can be fucked factor to actually look for it is non existent though.

bjw678

Don’t want to talk about anything other than thalidomide? OK.
What percentage of the whole population was effected by thalidomide?
How many people were forced or pressured into taking thalidomide?
When the dust settles on this it will be far more significant than thalidomide was.

Jam

Nah my whole fam except my missus is unvaxxed. Gran and sister still ain’t caught coughid

lswchp

The US VAERS system shows around 15000 hospitalisations for vaccine induced myocarditis/pericarditis, with about 1500 severe injuries and several hundred deaths.

Given that VAERS is widely acknowledged as significantly under-reporting reality, that doesn’t seem like zero difference to me.

The Journal of the American Heart Association, which I believe to be credible, has also just published two articles about treating vaccine induced myocarditis. I don’t think they’d be doing this if the problem was trivial.

emusplatt

meanwhile back at the ranch…brownouts for perth…fukaduk eh? domgas reservation don’t work without investing in generation assets? gee who knew? betcha immigration fixes it.

https://www.6pr.com.au/was-latest-tool-to-reduce-power-outages/

bjw678

Gotta love the free market solution that prioritises profits over anything the populace may actually want, like reliable power.

robert2013

“brownouts for perth”

No. That’s not what it says.

emusplatt

more a personal view tbf

MR coal

It heavily implies it though.
Why else would they have warning systems for impending blackouts?

A new warning system is being introduced in Western Australia in an attempt to reduce power outages.
People will be notified and asked to reduce their power usage if their suburb is at risk of a blackout.

T

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bjw678

Breaking news?
Russia upset country it invaded has retaliated.

NoMansLans

The purpose of the UN deal was supposedly to get the grain flowing again. Unknown how much was used to deliver weapons. The deal was bad for Russia since a lot of their own grain got stuck in European ports instead of going to where it was supposed to go.

In any case it wasn’t meant to be used to stage attacks on each other but hey if Ukraine wants to do that, Russia will reneg.

Just another example of Ukrainian and Western duplicity.

Fly in your ointment

Nah, “upset” is not even wrong word to use.
The Z’s have opened up the corridor knowing that it will be violated sooner or later and now have legit reasons to block the port. It is posturing for history books.

Reus's Large MEMBER

Zero, they have blinked in the UK, they don’t have the balls to crash the economy here with a rise ….

Cedric Coxwallow

25 is the number, and the number shall be 25. amen and a women.

Aussie Soy Boy

0.5% would be admitting getting it wrong last month so they will do 0.25%.

No1

.25, they would do zero but they can’t let the spread grow too much with the US

emusplatt

yawn …25bips and didja see the fx crosses fly?.. no I didn’t either …yawn

emusplatt

so now in the interest fo being wrong soonest and mostest …rba pause december snore all thru january and shit the bed in panic february

LostSocialist

So much of health care is a money making scam, including the covid hysteria. Here is a recent journal article that looked at the efficacy of healthcare interventions that have been reviewed by the Cochrane collaboration. The short answer is only a measly 6% of healthcare interventions have reliable data showing they benefit the patient. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0895435622001007?via%3Dihub

Jam

I once did a research paper on evidence based health care and factors of the built environment improving health outcomes based on reduction of meds and length of stay. Daylight and greenery are the two items supported by evidence along with positive distractions such as artwork and music.

Yet the healthcomplex demands these huge follies when we’d be better off attending to patients in caravans in a field.

bjw678

When you make healthcare a for profit activity all the incentives are to make more money, not to make people healthy.
Remember this anytime you want a privatised health system.
It worked so well with the power grid…

Freddy

The internet never forgets. Some MB articles from earlier this year 🙂

March
OCR futures prediction 2.65%.
DLS: “if the RBA were to follow market directions this time, all it will be doing is making room for a depression as house prices halve around the country”
Aussie house prices to be destroyed by eleven rate hikes – MacroBusiness

April
OCR futures prediction 3.5%.
Leith: “CBA tips the OCR will peak at 1.25%. I am firmly in the CBA’s camp on interest rates for the simple fact that Australians are carrying so much debt that larger rate rises risks crashing the housing market and smashing the economy.”
Mortgaged Aussie households shake in their boots – MacroBusiness

May
OCR futures prediction 3.5%.
Leith: “The latest forecast from futures markets is now tipping that Australia’s official cash rate (OCR) will hit 2.8% by December before peaking at 3.5% by July 2023. I view the futures market’s interest rate projections as stark raving mad. Be thankful the interest rate lever is with the RBA, not the crazy futures markets.”
Insane markets double down to torch Australian house prices – MacroBusiness

Last edited 4 months ago by Freddy
Coming

Lol amazing

really wonder if maybe a bot wrote these articles
they’re identical just increase the numbers

no actual thought goes into it

i still want to know why higher rates are inflationary when they increase the creation of reserves

this guy suggests something but I feel this Twitter advice is worth what you pay for it
ie nothing

https://twitter.com/macroalf/status/1586793209035984896?s=46&t=2Mf3PYEaPyJaN7iyFjNJRQ