robert2013
The final solution has already begun.
The 2021 census said there were ~1.45 million people aged 15-19. Let’s assume that’s evenly distributed across that age range. Then we can say that ~1.5 million/5 =300k people are aged 18. The government is now importing people at the rate of 400k people per year. That’s more people each year than come of age each … Read more
Where to next for the banking crises?
So far: I am not well read about these events and so hesitate to draw these two events together. Maybe some of you can comment on that. This is related: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/03/20/credit-suisses-takeover-causes-turmoil-in-a-275bn-bond-market “When things go sour and trigger points are reached—such as a bank’s capital falling below certain levels relative to assets—the bonds convert to equity or are … Read more
The forces at play in the housing market
Thoughts: Ownership market Rental market I don’t have a read on the weights of each of these factors or a model that can combine them. My gut feeling is that rates will resume rising after a lull caused by the Chinese resumption of production following the end of COVID zero and the working out of … Read more
Why crypto will not die
From Kaiko Research via Zerohedge: “On Monday, Hong Kong made its intentions clear to open the door to crypto trading for retail. Reports claim that China is quietly encouraging the move, using Hong Kong as a testing ground for what safe crypto trading might look like. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) outlined … Read more
Australia is a fine country.
Only the red countries or regions on the map mandate bicycle helmets by law and enforce them with fines. Australia’s laws on this are not “world class”, “progressive” or even reasonable. They are just one of many symptoms of an overly powerful public health and safety bureaucracy and a polity that is either well conditioned … Read more
Everybody is welcome to be nobody.
Have I encapsulated Australian multiculturalism in one pithy sentence? I asked DALL-E to draw a foetus growing in a plastic bag for the image. That, I believe, is the ultimate destination of multiculturalism: the detatchment of humanity first from the land and then from family, with the goal of permanent attachment to systems run by … Read more
An Australia Day that everyone can celebrate
Regardless of the merits of the arguments, a day to celebrate Australia has to be a day that everyone can participate willingly in. It’s clear that 26th January cannot be that day anymore. I think that there should be a random number drawn from on New Year’s Eve to allocate the public holiday. It should … Read more
Foreign workers prevented from working
“Every time one of the international community of instructors has tried to take a lesson, they have been harassed, to the extent that they can’t teach their lesson,” Mr Todd said. “They’re physically intimidating us, threatening us, trying to take away our lift passes, trying to remove our ski equipment and stopping us from being … Read more
BTC is up past $20000 again – is it a trap?
Is there price discovery behind BTC or is it just insiders jimmying the price higher to get some money out? Is there a diffference? My hunch is that $20k is the new base for BTC like $5k was after the 2018 massacre. It gets a bit below, it goes a bit above, until the next … Read more
Inflate/deflate?
Most commentary I’ve been following says that an American recession is on the cards, but they argue about its depth. Nouriel Roubini (https://nourielroubini.com/a-stagflationary-debt-crisis-looms/) says that the world is in deep shit….but he always says that. I think it’s too early to call inflation baked in. We’re only just exiting the post-covid boom…and China is just … Read more