robert2013Lots of media chatter about house prices falls becoming entrenched last 2 weeks. They were precipitated by Labor’s budget. MB and many of us have been arguing for these things for years: I think they acted for ideological reasons, to bring down house prices while keeping up migration levels. Doing this a few years ago … Read more
These two headlines, along with the budget, current account and trade deficit headlines from yesterday, show that that the immigration economy is finished beyond doubt. We have reached the point where adding more bodies is not adding more growth. Failures of multiples systems evident and likely: Productivity dropping. Immigration is done. Some of the elite … Read more
Leaked to AFR, see MB: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2026/05/property-tax-reforms-leaked-ahead-of-budget/So AFAIK: I reckon it’s intended to buy off younger voters in time for the next election. House prices and rents won’t come down much without big cuts to immigration, which would be totally against Labor’s destroy the nation in order to control it forever scam. It might work for … Read more
No I don’t have a definitive answer but I do think the immigration led house price boom in Australia is going to come to an end quite soon. It’s already happened in NZ and Canada according to MB here and here (free articles). ON is now leading laberal in primary votes. One way or another, … Read more
Recent gains in AI are shocking. The pace of the gains is shocking. Ray Kurzwei’s predication of AGI by 2030 looks prescient. If you haven’t read this, do. It will explain. Quote below: I’ve spent six years building an AI startup and investing in the space. I am no longer needed for the actual technical … Read more
Boy was I wrong. I thought it would retrace and regroup after hitting 5k. DLS said it would be a blow off top but this is amazing. I know that US retail has been buying and central banks. Anyone else? If it’s a blow off top it’s supposed to come down on the other side….but … Read more
This appeared on my feed from Senator Ralph Babet: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=912841084651653&set=a.128135589788877 Also appeared on zerohedge: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/why-young-women-moved-left-while-young-men-stayed-sane Followed the link to an interesting analysis of render socio-political gender trends: With some interesting comments: This one uses the Ted Kascinsky ‘industrial society’ framework: My take remains that we stopped having children because we don’t have enough space around … Read more
I think we’ve had a pretty good run given that no one is paid and no one is selling anything. I have enjoyed our conversations over the last few years but I wonder if maybe it’s time to call it quits. Let’s review things first. Winning@failing was crazy and deserved all the attacks. No one … Read more
Labor has raised their 2035 decarbonisation target in order to acheive net zero by 2050 and be a “world leader”. They insist it is an economic opportunity. The world is not going to buy green steel made from hydrogen unless it is cheaper and better for building things with than steel made with coal. They … Read more
Australia is largely a land of followers. We look to other countries for cues on what to think and how to behave, and we elect and follow those who seem to be better followers than the others. There are, of course, capability people with different ideas, initiative, after all our population is normally distributed like … Read more
Lenin believed that communism had to be everywhere for it to be truly effective anywhere. This was called international communism. He set up COMINTERN, a Russian government agency which funded and directed communist parties across the world in order to achieve revolution, including in Australia. Even after Stalin (and others’) nationalist communism took over the … Read more
Last week, Japan’s 20 year bond auction failed. https://www.ig.com/en/news-and-trade-ideas/japan-s-bond-market-turmoil–understanding-the-causes-and-global-250521 The pressure on JGBs has been going on for a while. Big JGB buyers like local insurance firms have reported big paper losses: https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/asia/news/life-insurance/japanese-life-insurers-report-major-bond-valuation-losses-536925.aspx The government got yields to fall a bit by promising to issue fewer bonds, but if they do that, then won’t that … Read more