A few trade stats and some other stuff

50% of Australia’s exports are from mining and another 18% from “energy”.

https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook47p/AustralianTradeFigures

Volumes are forecast to go up to 2029, but prices and net export earnings are expected to fall

https://www.industry.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly-march-2024

Remittances currently took about USD 5 billion from our current account in 2022. That’s more than this year’s entire current account deficit. Also, India gets US$111 billion in remittances every year, mostly from the USA. I’m sure the benefits of Indian immigration are widely felt all over the USA.

https://www.finder.com.au/international-money-transfers/remittance-statistics

With a falling terms of trade, it seems likely that AUD will fall. Chinese overproduction may keep a lid on imported goods inflation. If population imports stay high enough can we expect to see continued inflation in rents and services? Would the RBA ease up on interest rates to keep house prices up in spite of inflation and falling living standards?

Ray Kurzweil reckons we’ll have general AI by 2029 and that this was in line with his earlier prediction.

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/06/17/ray-kurzweil-on-how-ai-will-transform-the-physical-world

Will life be completely modellable in software? Will living software eat the universe? Is the future of humanity a bunch of robots duking it out for their long dead masters like in Nier Automata? I have no idea, but nihilistic post modernity is destroying families across the world, and not only in the west. It is hard to put your hope things, and everyone having different hopes is a recipe for conflict, but conflict is better than shuffling off quietly into that good night and doing only as you are told.

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LSWCHP

Not trade related, but…

Orc gang fights with weapons in a shopping centre in a major australian city. Not the first. Won’t be the last.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/police-warn-of-incident-at-adelaide-shopping-centre-20240623-p5jo0v.html

My head is always on a swivel when I’m at my local Westfield, and I get in and put as fat as I can.

LSWCHP

As for AI, it’s a load of shit, and will be for a long time yet.

Google’s best effort at AI recently produced images of female popes and black wehrmact soldiers, and that’s all that needs to be said, really. AI is a sad fucking joke with no punchline, and that’s not gonna change anytime soon. The people who are boosting it are grifters who are talking their own book so they can make bank at the expense of the chumps.

Would you allow an AI car to drive you through Sydney in peak hour and expect it to do better than you?

stagmal

ai = google search

Drago

The clips of drones killing soldiers in Western Russia is pretty scarey.

A Council worker told me he ‘saves’ hours a day using Chat GPT to do his work emails etc. Just what we need huh? The laziest over paid fuckers outside of the CFMEU have gamed the system already.

Hopefully AI will wipe out all those pricks who basically send emails as their job.

A fly in your ointment

Yep, Dumbo can do that but the ultimate mistake you yourself made is that your article does not bash negroes/poojeets/slopes/joos/abos.
Utter mistake.
Articles with sucha a mistake have a very short life on this platform.
Ergo the first comment.

LSWCHP

Well yeah. I didn’t say never, I said a long time. 20 years is a long time.

Meanwhile, AI today is still shit.

stagmal

theyve run out of b.s to feed into it

A fly in your ointment

That’s not quite the intellect.

Automating machines can make them appear to living organism as if they have mind. Imitating simple life behaviour is possible, to a degree, but intelligence as humans know it, even on a level of a small brain living organisms is totally different ball game.
Current AI is nothing but a ultra quick search of all the info collected from phone and search engines use.

A fly in your ointment

> There’s not much that can be done for 50+18% exports.
Remaining 32% is what matters as a somewhat healthy economy.

> Remittance is offset with services rendered which is then invested back into Australia via home loans. This money can be easily taken away and it will be taken when sufficient people want to offload it.
> Also, Remittance is offset with unlaundered money. Is it possible unlaundered money enters this pond to a level of $5bil? Perhaps.

> if AUD falls, imports become expensive. Except in case snags at bunnings entrance and somewhat for Vegemite, we import almost everything. Even stuff which is produced locally. What will happen with inflation in that case?
Rest assured, RBA will throw much more than a kitchen sink in should it need to protect RE prices.

JimsCentralBanking

The one thing that saves us is the fact that robots can’t vote… yet.

Gruppenführer Mark

roberto! sucks when the thread gets hijacked, but unfortunately this is the nature of the platform. Lowest common denominator and such like.

On the subject, though. Figures below are from the spreadsheets you linked and are nominal. I’m no economist, but I did take a look.

Volumes are forecast to go up to 2029, but prices and net export earnings are expected to fall

I dug into this a bit and see that there are a few assumptions. USD/AUD is projected to improve from .67 to .75. Resources export to reduce from 227B (2023) to 205B (2029) – not critical, given the improvement in USD/AUD exchange. Energy, however, is expected to reduce from 238B (2023) to 130B (2029) – nearly half! Wonder what drives this?

Brent crude price is expected to reduce from 83/bb (2023) to 73/bb (2029) – 12% reduction. JCC oil price (this index is used as a basis for LNG pricing, I believe) is expected to reduce from 86.7 (2023) to 71.1 (2029) – 18% reduction. So, between AUD strengthening and oil price dropping, we are getting a serious energy export reduction.

I find a few interesting assumptions in these figures. 1. AUD strengthening against USD, 2. oil price dropping against USD, 3. oil production increasing by 4% between 2023 and 2029. I find these difficult to reconcile. Two largest oil producers in the world are Saudis (who just dropped a USD peg for their oil and will diversify to other currencies) and Russia (they have a different point of view with the US on pretty much anything). Why would crude price drop in USD terms? Why would AUD strengthen against USD, if the resources we are providing to the market have competitors, i.e., we are price takers? Why would USD still be the measuring stick, the standard for pricing energy, when the hegemon is clearly not well and does not project power – ask Houthis?

Once USA are done cannibalising whatever is left from Europe, they will not have any more targets to prolong their agony. The US Empire will die, and I hope it will be a relatively quiet death, with no civil wars, nuclear attacks and other fun things wounded animals do.

RBA will absolutely let inflation run. Maybe akin USA economy in the 70s with 17% interest rates, but, more importantly, hefty increases in incomes. Noone will be able to take on new debt but will be able to pay old debt off quicker. Houses stay high. Or maybe not drop half or more of their value as we have seen in Ireland, USA, etc. in second half of 2000s, in a low interest rate environment.

On AI front, I think you are missing a couple of points.

First, if AI replaces some humans, what do these surplus humans do? Will there be a UBI? There certainly wouldn’t be any robot wars, because those rulers behind the scenes who might create such robots would have to cede to the robots one thing rulers crave – power. Nobody ain’t got no appetite for that. Despite what Hollywood wants us to fear, the machines will not ever have what humans have – free will, creativity and ingenuity. Otherwise, I would have a couple of Rembrandts in my bedroom painted by an AI.

Second. All serious technological advances are first made for military purpose. After that, some of the advances are leaked into civilian life. Computer is no exception. Somehow, I doubt that AI as we know it is a recent invention. I bet dollars to donuts that.mil types have had a much more advanced versions of AI for a while. Hell, I was chatting with the world back in early 90s utilising .mil infrastructure that was made available to the public. This was before world wide web, ICQ, AOL and other fun things. It was called IRC, and was using the internet of the time, which was dedicated to .mil purposes, then to research by universities.

So, I firmly believe (not enough facts, unfortunately) that the AI we have is just another plaything for the masses, like the internet was in its first years, then facebook and other social media. It is a distraction. It is not a way for machines to take over, it is an opening into metaverse, where human drones will spend their lives away from work to escape the grim reality. Because who cares if current AI cannot draw a hand, it does very well, I’m sure, with a perfect pair of tits. And internet is what, 96% porn anyway? And we already have a stellar example of a country well on the way to metaverse – Japan.

A fly in your ointment

RBA will absolutely let inflation run…

I doubt they will let it loose to kill the home loans market.
Unless it runs away and out of control I don’t see 2 digit IR/inflation.

Gruppenführer Mark

Don’t disagree that there are a lot of engineers who are quite possibly more fascinated with making a perfect machine. But they are most certainly work for .mil types. There is too much money involved in creating machines.

Speaking of the machines, came across this little gem. Maybe introducing this type of AI solves our immigration problem as well. Delivery robots in Moscow.

Russia’s Artificial Intelligence push: Companies develop tech without overseas help (youtube.com)

Dived into YT for some old .gov.au porn on infrastructure.
Luckily Llewdo and Bleat were born a few years later and some infrastructure was actually built to cope with Wogs coming in boatloads to an annual 25000 immigration – before the ducky bros could root for “no infrastructure spending is ever good”

My God, this country was something before it was destructed by cucks and leftards selling everything to highest bidder and rendering industry to producing only cheap diplomas and houses,

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2gXT_jNRHgE

There are a few more videos on the freeway building from Berowra to Calga.

Greens and leftards warning: watching this video may cause PTSD!!!
“To make way for cosntructuon, fallen trees were piled and then burned….” Burned???

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