The end of democracy

Democracy only works because the losers are prepared to accept the rule of the winners on the basis that they are the same people, representing the same goals, albeit with a different view on how they can best be reached. There are more and more people in Australia (eg most contributors here) and other democracies … Read more

The doom loop

Way back in 2008 the power of good government was used to rescue the finance industry by effectively buying all their bad debt. Government paper was printed by the trillions and by some miracle it never resulted in inflation, because it never got to the man on the street, only to asset prices. Then came … Read more

AUDUSD – short now, long later?

I think DLS could well be right about AUD hitting COVID lows, but how to position and what to expect? Right now with QT (or at least no QE) there is a global dollar shortage. With rising rates as well, returns on USD look better than many other assets. Shorting AUD for USD will currently … Read more

Weaponising narratives

Narrative has been weaponised for a very long time by skilled operators. The growth of mass media in the 20th century greatly facilitated it, the dangers well observed many decades ago by Orwell, Huxley and others. It’s growth was necessary because of dissolution of communities through people moving away to cities. There were no grape … Read more

Do masks make a difference?

Daily case number chart from the WA COVID dashboard: Experiencing this chart made me convinced that masks do make a difference….but if that’s the case why was it only a spike and not a sustained increase in daily case numbers? Comments?

Middle of the week links

The narrative seems to be that markets are now betting on the Fed doing a U turn. I’ll wait till the next inflation figures and interest rate announcements before throwing money around. Other things I thought interesting the last couple of days: Apparently ANZ has developed an AUD stablecoin. Seems pretty pointless given that you … Read more

Weekened Links since last time to 26/6/22

I’ve been accumulating these for a while to share…some might be a little dated, but some good reading to be had. Overall deaths in Australia – where nearly everyone is vaccinated – are spiking. Fertilizer Australia > Fertilizer Industry > Australian Fertilizer Market From Court-Packing To Leaking To Doxxing: White House Yields To National Rage … Read more

Shortages, inflation and narrative.

The narratives I’ve heard about the shortages say they are driven by: Lockdowns (now only in China) People taking time off sick post lockdown, exaggerated by isolation requirements Some people banned from working due to vaccine mandates Limited immigration (not enough low paid workers to get low skills but essential jobs done) Spending during the … Read more

Weekend links 6/5/22-8/5/22

The non-nation New Data Shows The Mass Exodus Of People From Australia Continues Dear RBA, DO NOT HIKE INTEREST RATES – MacroBusiness Mark McGowan is impinging on human rights: human rights commission Solomon Islands-China deal: Australia won’t send defence, police personnel to work alongside Chinese forces Showdown on the Corral Sea, with Australia adrift in … Read more

Why bad philosophy leads to worse maths

Mark Latham commented on NSW maths results on Sky News arguing that the introduction of wokeness into the curriculum and the lack of specialised teachers lay behind the accellerating declines in performance Many people will disagree reflexively with Mr Latham perhaps because he’s appearing on Sky News and represents One Nation, but there is … Read more