Welcome to the Weekend Links for the 7-8 of August 2021. The big question on everyone’s mind is where are we? We are we going, what are we doing, and how is it all going to end.
Pear-shaped seems to be the consensus. These are after all dog days if you are in the northern hemisphere. Feels that way these parts too.
Covid is on everyone’s mind. Sciency types and doctors are starting to understand everything may not be as kosher as originally advertised.
This is going to get far far worse. As far as anyone can tell, all the doomers talking about ADE … well we might just be looking at, as Vox Day puts it, the NIGHTMARE KITTY scenario.
Robert Malone, the bloke who was involved with the discovery of mRNA sequences – he of getting scrubbed from Wikipedia fame – is dropping red pills like a madman!
Of course, we should not listen to quacks. Instead we should follow the example of our scientific betters!
~~Matt Yglesias Is Occasionally Right~~
- Say it isn’t – Twitter Suspends Science Writer After He Posts Results Of Pfizer Clinical Test | ZeroHedge – so…
- What ever could this – 74% Of COVID-19 Cases From Massachusetts Outbreak Occurred In Fully Vaccinated People: CDC | ZeroHedge – mean?
- Imagine – Imagine If They Hadn’t Lied to Us for the Last 18 Months by Kurt Schlichter (townhall.com) …
- Someone at NYT – To Fight Vaccine Lies, Authorities Recruit an ‘Influencer Army’ – The New York Times (nytimes.com) – thought this was news?
~~Hub-less Bicycles For The Win~~
~~Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys~~
- Oui – Macron braced for MORE protest chaos – firefighters vow national strike to shut France off | World | News | Express.co.uk – or something like that!
- RT getting in – Mass protests kick off in Paris after France’s constitutional court approves controversial Covid legislation (VIDEOS) — RT World News – on the action.
- This is hilarious. And serious – «Macon 1er» : après l’avoir grimé en Hitler, l’afficheur varois travestit Macron en monarque — RT en français – sure its in French.
- A history of the yellow vests – France’s ‘yellow vest’ protests: Timeline of unrest – The Local – if you’re keen.
~~If You’re A Real Man~~
- Well – The Left Has A Pedophilia Problem, And It’s Out In The Open (thefederalist.com) – yes. But unmentioned is the left’s use of pedophilia as a social technology.
- Trump trolling – BREAKING: President Trump is Holding ‘Cabinet Meetings’ at His Golf Club in New Jersey (thegatewaypundit.com) – the leftists.
- Right wing grifters – National Justice Investigates: Rising Republican Party Influencers Got Their Start At Talent Agency Run By Israeli Pornographer – National Justice (national-justice.com) – now have a talent agency!
- Lol – Libtards Are Starting to Break (informationliberation.com) – libtards is now a mainstream-ish expression.
- The never ending drama – Brittany Higgins case: Qld man summonsed to appear in court (news.com.au) – of an ambitious journalist. If she’s not getting paid for this, she is exceptionally stupid.
- Why is this – Will Victoria follow NSW in blaming brown folks? | Footyology – footy news?
- The Betoota – Private Schoolboy Thanks “Mummy Gladys” For Giving Him Some Dumb Country Bogan’s Jab — The Betoota Advocate – getting there…
- Hilarious – Vote for us or we’ll kill you – YouTube – but Jordies is also getting repetitive. Any odds on him running for the Senate?
~~Mel Gibson Being An Anti-Semite Again~~
- Opinion | More missile silos have been found in China. That’s an ominous sign. – The Washington Post and more – Visualizing Asia’s Slide Into A Dangerous New Ballistic Missile Race | ZeroHedge – here.
- Yeah – A ‘New Cold War’ has already started, but Russia & China are winning against a ‘weakening’ West, says former Kremlin adviser — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union – he went there. Probably with good reason.
- Someone is signalling – Joint Chiefs Seek A New Warfighting Paradigm After Devastating Losses In Classified Wargames (thedrive.com) – to someone else.
Apparently weather weapons are now a thing!
- China’s Giant Ionosphere-Zapping Radar Is Weaponry Masquerading as Science (popularmechanics.com) – and there are also mentions of HAARP everywhere this week. Its … odd.
- This is very curious – Shocking video shows salmon almost boiled alive in heat wave | TheHill – and its timing is suspicious.
- It is not a coincidence – Nullifying Nuremberg – American Thinker – that this is in the news.
First person to read the French article and explain why the image is interesting… props to you.
Do it without googling you cheaters!
Which french article in particular? There were a couple linked.
BTW – I saw that Matt Ygleasias tweet, and replied to him. Interestingly he has deleted the original tweet….
The image with Macron as an aristocrat 🙂
He’s staring in a remake of ‘Black Adder?’
Its right there in the image. No googling 🙂
“Ordo Ab Chao”
They create the chaos, out of which their preferred order rises.
Also Hegelian dialectic:
problem – reaction – solution.
A problem is created by them, which elicits a reaction for which they have a ready made solution.
We are being played, open your eyes.
There is no Left/Right, Blue/Red, Labour/Liberal, Democrat/Conservative,
they are two heads controlled by the same beast (see picture below).
You’ll be surprised how many in politics, police and military are masons. It is even whispered that you can’t get to the highest ranks if you don’t know the funny handshake.
Well done sir! Macon is French for builder, or mason. It’s saying he is a Freemason.
The other thing to note is the quality of the RT France desk. Some sharp editor ran that as the picture. Can you imagine an ABC foreign correspondent picking that up!
Yah, don’t mind watching a bit of Russian propaganda as a counter balance to our propaganda. They have a YouTube channel which I visit almost every day.
Chappeau on the links again T!
You had a video on the dying retail sector due to covid in Manhattan a while back.
I found the Zombie Apocalypse in Philly:
Where is Dirty Harry when you need him eh?
Oh yeah, he was not PC and made to retire.
At least no one’s feelings were hurt today.
Also the CDC found dual purpose for face masks:
And public sex in SF:
Wishing you all an enjoyable weekend!
SF is lost forever. LA next.
Every cloud has a silver lining…
To save you all scrolling back up, this is the tweet that Ygleasias deleted – it opened a can of inconvenient worms.
Which is why i put no creedence into the vac numbers or any of the bullshit in the Australian press.
It’s over and out will come the iron fist very shortly.
A quote out of an excellent tweet thread:
Rule #1: EVERY mainstream media narrative is false until proven true.
Excellent work, that.
I gave up social media and mainstream media last year. Both are absolutely feral with no bounds and no shame. We go from we are all going to die through to the other end of the spectrum. Essentially, bad news sells and same with fear porn.
Yup – it is propaganda masquerading as news. Constant stories of fear and panic, contrasted with feel good stories celebrating our MultiCult Corporate utopias. Fear, Love, Fear, Love…. soon you will be so gaslighted you will only fear missing the love of Big Brother.
Hence my suggestion someone needs to create the movie 2084, which is 1984 updated for current trends and technology. We’re already 1/4 the way there.
Gattaca had some similar themes, didn’t it?
From memory Gattaca stayed fairly narrowly in the genetic modification/discrimination lane, and tech isn’t there yet although I’m sure you could argue allegories for current day things.
Yer, I’m getting more at similarities to “jab passports”….
The problem is they would use it as training material.
You can see the techniques in use.
Anyone ever see this dufus on YT? From memory he bought a house using dodgy lines of credit, then went bankrupt. Then bought another house and now he’s a financial commentator! Ever since he started doing the doom and gloom videos his views went thru the roof thanks to the algorithm.
you’re a troll!
can’t you see he has a RØDE look-a-like mike and a stand for it, so he must be legit.
Also, I would just like to say – Mel Gibson is a legend.
That is all.
I found this ages ago. Interview with him in 1987:
I think I remember that particular interview.
Mel Gibson knows.
And he’s not afraid to say it.
Wasn’t he made persona non grata in the 80s or 90s when he mentioned that Hollywood was run by the big nose squad?
He was on the nose with the Hollywood small hats from the day he made “The Passion of Christ”. They did everything they could to stop its production, but in the end their only victory was forcing Mel to drop Matt 27:25 from the script:
Personally I think John 8:44 should have been included somewhere in there… maybe in his next film.
Also Revelation 3:9:
Interesting historical fact that the Khazars, now known as Ashkenazi, embraced Judaism out of convenience.
Melbourne yesterday https://mobile.twitter.com/JulesAnthonyCo/status/1423224369367584768
No one gives a f anymore.
The protests are getting bigger and bigger numbers it would seem?
They need to change tactics though like the French are in my opinion.
Walking with thousands in one spot will send a message but change little. If they really want to undermine police resources then you have 4-5 smaller protests at different places across the city. It’s a clusterfuck for the police to manage that.
The ultimate would be a few thousand people peacefully rallying outside the CHO or state premiers house as that would send the message very quickly.
See what happens but I think unrest of some magnitude is baked in now.
how many officers can the vicpol reasonably muster up to contain/deal with protesters? esp at short notice
i dont know how large our police forces are
but yeah these protests are too performative, they need to be all out, every day, causing general chaos, shutting down roads, not showing up at work, these once in a while events just arent going to cut it.
Are you taking the piss?
The gov won’t let people show up at work and NSW police literally shut down all the roads into the city to prevent a protest. I don’t think the people doing it will have much of an effect.
Apparently they are recruiting another 3000 to join Vicpol.
Thank god they’ve managed to find the money for that!
ripper another 3000 dealers
My prediction for how covid is going to play out …
In a few years time we are going to have half the world population that we currently have and if we are lucky being a island nation would save more of us than other countries
Given the breakthrough cases of vaccinated people and given this study
Where the scary part of this is that the virus is not behaving like a normal corona virus it is exhibiting things traits that are normally found in other viruses
This part is scary
These fused structures, called syncytia, are induced by viral infections such as HIV and herpes simplex virus, but not by the SARS virus, says molecular biologist Mauro Giacca at King’s College London, who led the team that published the finding in April18. He hypothesizes that forming syncytia allows infected cells to thrive for long periods of time, churning out more and more virions. “This is not a hit-and-run virus,” he says. “It persists.” A second team, led by researcher Qiang Sun at the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences in Beijing, found that some COVID-19-infected cells even form syncytia with lymphocytes — one of the body’s own immune cells19. This is a known mechanism of immune evasion by tumour cells, but not by viruses. It suggests that infected cells avoid immune detection by simply grabbing on to and merging with nearby immune scouts.
So you, or they, are positing that the CFR which is currently 0.33% (see below, Coming’s post) is going rocket up, or the infectiveness will?
I am saying that the variants are able to evade our immune system and vaccines, how that plays out remains to be seen, but that could explain long covid to some extent. My guess is that this lab made virus was engineered with combinations of other virus traits in order to make it deadly in the long term
long term symptoms from flu aren’t unheard of.
Long term outcomes in survivors of epidemic Influenza A (H7N9) virus infection
I doubt it was deliberately engineered to be deadly, but that is also not to say that it may not turn out to be long term deadly either, in that it might represent a permanent attack on the immune system via these syncytia.
I remember reading early into the outbreak that the Chinese lab were doing experiments on using a common cold virus as a form of viral inoculation against AIDS, which was why there are some strings of that virus apparently present in the COVID genome.
If this really is a weapons-grade virus, then we’re all pretty fucked.
but I feel like a weapons-grade virus would be worse than what we’ve seen.
although, on the other hand, if you were designing a weapon, you’d realise that more devastation would be achieved with something that circulates for a long time with little effect… and only then (24 months, 36 months on, or whenever the satellite signal is sent) drops the hammer on all those who’ve been infected….
I don’t buy it. as far as I can tell the delta is more contagious but less life threatening. so the argument would be that the initial strain was bad, delta less bad, then its going to ramp up again in a years time?
pensum, to clarify – I’m saying that if teh COVID is actually a biological weapon, then in my mind the weapon that would wipe out the most peeps would be more like teh delta – very contagious but doesn’t immideately make people keel over. Instead, has a very long fuse and people only die 2 years later, when they think they are well over it.
now, there’s nothing to suggest that the delta has this sort of long fuse….
yeah I agree with that.
The only problem with bio weapons that are highly contagious and take a long time to kill is the are likely to infect you as well as your enemy.
You mean like the white appliances are designed to fail after 3/5/10 years (delete inapplicable term)?
The theory of a WMD or WMI (weapon of mass inconvenience) is the least probable as bioweaons are impossible to control from backfiring
Yeah, that’s what I was getting at.
im not saying that it’s likely, but it is possible that it is some kind of weaponised virus. Or at least an escape of some unfinished work that was part of the weaponisation attempt.
in which case, it’s interesting to think about qualities an effective virus weapon would have…. My guess is what I outlined – infect lots without bad symptoms early on. Hammer drops some years later, after the guard drops.
I think the barricades will be manned before the end of the year.
We’re going to have a lot of sick and dying from the jab before then.
That was an interesting article. This observation here gave me some pause to consider:
India was a large user and proponent of Chloroquine in battling the initial Alpha variant of the COVID virus, and having malaria and a large domestic pharmaceutical industry, ready access to Chloroquine:
Basically my theory is a 100m Indians using Chloroquine provided ample environmental selection pressures for a COVID strain to emerge there that used another method to gain access to the cell membrane which avoided using the cathepsin protein spike that Chloroquine aided in protecting…. thus Delta variant was born in India.
Likewise and vaccine is likely to result in a similar filter, that is only going to temporarily suppress the virus, and encourage the emergence of new variations that may or may not bring along other characteristics with them.
I think it’s a bit more nuanced than that. If the military are being used as an available labour force as they are now, then no.
If the military are deployed armed for crowd control Tiananmen style then very probably.
This. It’s just additional resources – for now. As soon as there as any ability for the ADF to detain ppl for short periods of time, or carry weapons in the streets, then that’s a big fucking issue.
Brian Houston, Hillsong leader was charged over hiding child sex offences.
Thank goodness he never mentored anyone important or in a leadership position…
He’s said that he’s not guilty.
and I’m sure very shortly Scott will pronounce him not guilty as well.
so there’s nothing to see here.
Prepare the FOI requests!
Wouldn’t be surprised if “National Cabinet” revealed them all to be seriously out of their depth.
70% likelihood of law change to shield it all from FOI.
oh, and 99.3% likelihood of bureaucratic shenanigans to insert pages of black “redacted”
blocks and filter anything that might otherwise be released down to meaninglessness.
All we can do now is accelerate until the inevitable spark that starts the fire.
So UK averaging about 100 deaths a day and 30,000 cases per day
CFR 0.33 almost identical to nsw
1 new death per 600,000 population way more than nsw
500 new cases per million population way more than nsw
and also it’s summer in the UK – likely to get far worse than that in the coming winter
So this is probably the best outcome we can hope for once our vaccination numbers are up
in other words once we have “won back our freedoms” we can expect in NSW (based on these per capita numbers)
-around 3000 new cases per day
-10 new deaths per day
and media are currently furiously reporting numbers around a 1/10th of that acting like it’s an apocalypse
a lot of resetting of expectations to be done
yeah, seems like we’re not vaccinating our way out of this. either we just need to give up and accept that our zero covid strategy was a waste of time or we can continue to public health theatre larp for the rest of all time.
why do i have a feeling we’re going to keep doing the latter.
fuck this country.
We’ve got to save the EZFKA banks, mate.
we can’t have 200,000 boomer landlords falling over all in one year – the banks would not survive.
we can’t have 200,000 boomer landlord ESTATES settled and cleared in one year…so they won’t be…..grant probate at less than 4 estates a month
It’s interesting because I don’t think nsw can ever cut community transmission to zero
it would take a wuhan style lockdown welding peoples doors closed etc
but all other states are pursuing (and achieving) a zero transmission goal
even if the vaccination goal is reached, the other states aren’t going to suddenly go “oh ok guys, let’s let it rip now . We can expect thousands of daily cases and dozens of deaths but that’s fine now because we are vaccinated”
they are going to have to maintain quarantine and border rules
esp qld, wa, sa, tas who have been essentially unaffected by Covid cases
so effectively nsw would be a plague state , that is cut off from all the others
essentially the end of federation
this would surely have quite severe ramifications for house prices
I can’t really picture how this is going to end
why do you think NSW can’t do it, but other states can?
Well they’ve shown no signs of getting it to zero under current policy settings
i guess we can hope for a summer miracle but it seems pretty unlikely
it will take a hardcore military assisted complete shutdown
and I don’t think Gladys or scomo have the stomach for it, and NSWelshmen won’t tolerate it they aren’t as cucked as the victorians
We will be at an impasse IMO
Ah, alright, so you’re saying that the practicalities mean that it’s unlikely that they’ll be able to crunch it hard enough (having started late due to bravado)….
Federation has already ended given how the state premiers have been acting the past 18 months… christ….
Except it will never really be cut off. Trucks will continue to move goods, some travel will be permitted.
If it gets out of control in NSW it will end up getting into the other states unless they close the borders a whole lot harder than they have up to now.
Currently we have the illusion of closed borders, see removalists bringing covid to victoria.
Not sure. They probably won’t get transmission to zero in the west, but will have zero on the north shore and eastern suburbs, so that is what they are probably aiming for. I can see NSW being cutoff, but that being said it will be the first to have freedom day. At some point we will say enough people have been ‘offered’ the vaccine, so life can get back to normal and we will just count number of hospitalisations and deaths. I can’t see any other state even remotely trying this.
I can’t see them balancing it that finely. Realistically it’s either spreading more or being contained with less cases.
At the moment it’s slowly spreading, having reached newcastle now.
there’s a lot to recommend that view. 👍🏿👍🏿👍🏿
Armidale region now going into lockdown from 5pm tonight. It certainly isn’t contained yet.
NSW will be the plague state for another 12 months I reckon but there is going to be intense pressure on all other states to follow suit eventually. Also, when NSW trials the semi let it rip approach by Q1 next year, and every other state is constantly in and out of lockdowns, NSW will actually look more attractive to live in. I also don’t buy the rhetoric that NSW will forever have lockdowns, the economic cost is just too great.
So that actually could be a positive for house prices and pause interstate migration.
But the sunk costs….
Or to be more specific, how does passage of time change to calculation at a given time whether lockdown or let it rip is the best option? If lockdown made sense a year ago it still makes sense in 5 years time if the situation hasn’t changed significantly.
If anything after forcing the lockdowns for years trying to sell let it rip becomes harder. This is why I was anti lockdown from the start. You end up backing yourself into a corner by not making the decision to let it rip early.
Bjw, passage of time doesn’t change much, but it changes some. There’s the stuff I refer to here: https://www.ezfka.com/2021/08/06/weekend-links-7-8-aug-2021/#comment-8621
also the EZFKA populace will be fatigued by the lockdowns and “let it rip” will become more politically palatable.
also plans will have been made to avoid the “let it rip” consequences squashing asset markets or banks. (https://www.ezfka.com/2021/08/06/weekend-links-7-8-aug-2021/#comment-8538)
Some, but some will just double down on it will be the end of the world if people start getting covid, How could it not. Why else did we have to lockdown for so long and give up so much.
See mb and the odd person here.
re: the old and morbid dying and being gone, we keep making more of them. Unless you wipe out a huge amount all at once with some unforeseen external factor
but if we stretch the shitshow to 5 yrs, a lot of those currently not THAT old and TTAT sick will get their COVID infection or jab and survive it (while relatively younger/healthier)
so 5 yrs later, they won’t be dying of COVID so much.
it’s like a really Krazy version of smoothing the curve or whatever they call it.
Unless it gets a lot more our of control they won’t catch it.
current rates is 200,000 people in 3 years.
Vax effectiveness is also seeming to be not very high, maybe a half or quartering of death/hospitalisation.
Agree that 200,000 in 3 years is too slow.
that’s need to be fixed, if the plan i lay out is THE plan….
dare I say that this is not even in the general direction of the agenda…
if it was a desired outcome, we’d be bombarded with propaganda on the topic, like it was before every other public opinion shaping in the past (i.e. non-hetero marriage).
When let it rip serves a purpose it will be made palatable hastly. I am yet to see what for what purpose this will be. Atm, power shift can continue as-is as long as plebes still bite the temp-but-soon-to-become-permanent measures and tighten the noose.
yup it will be the latter. the bureaucrats and politicians can’t admit defeat, or that they were wrong to pursue the elimination strategy.
We will still be pursuing elimination well into 2022. Daniel Andrews has an election to contest and has staked his success on zero Covid.
At the same time of this zero Covid strategy, we will be holding large potential superspreading events like football etc.
It’s impossible for these megalomaniacs to admit they could be wrong about anything, hence double and triple down on failing policy is baked in.
I think they could possibly have to reverse course quite soon.
all those HouseBuilder houses are going to be completed in the coming few quarters and the housing market under supply could begin to be resolved.
They will then need to get hundreds of thousands of new warm bodies into the country in order to prevent asset prices unravelling & the tradies starving.
Careful balancing of policy is needed between Covid and house prices.
See if they can get it right…
I’m going long 🍿
Units in sydney are already in excess supply and have been for the last year at least.
Anecdata, I know of an investment villa that has been empty for as many weeks this year as it was for literally the entire 15 years pre covid.
Agreed. Alternatively, this is a great opportunity for NSW to catch up building hospitals it should have built 10 years ago, maybe that would also assist the ‘overwhelm our hospitals’ issue in the medium to longer term.
In fact, given it’s highly likely covid will be around forever, has there been any announcement of a single new hospital bring constructed in the entire country to deal with the new increased run rate of intensive care units, or hospital beds?
Or is the government just still praying it’s way out of this that there will never be more deaths..
I assume that is rhetorical since the vax will fix thing.
Yes that’s the belief which concerns me
In fact better question, has a single country anywhere bothered to increase their hospitals and ICU per Capita?
why bother with such long term investment?
seriously – this could all be plausibly considered temporary.
In the next 3-5 years today’s very elderly and morbid people who were going to die anyway (without COVID) will die anyway (with or without COVID)
everyone else will have gotten some form of the virus (or some partially ineffective jab) and developed some sort of immunity. Maybe another 0.5% of the population will die of teh COVID.
what are you going to do with your extra 20% hospital capacity then? (Except, possibly, import more foreign elders to fill them?)
Even the black plague was temporary. We either get wiped out completely or simply evolve and move on. Even the various indigenous populations exposed to effectively multiple pandemics at once, and ones worse than covid at that, managed to adapt and keep going.
Simply evolve and move on… From a new disease that will mutate for ages and be with us for a long time.
Good to see you’re again happy with however many dying and we should never bother doing anything to even improve the situation. There’s a recurring theme of narcissism in your worldview.
I am just honest with myself. remove lockdowns now or in a years time, or 5 years time and the result will be the same.
I may be narcissistic, but you are self deceiving.
The other alternative is lockdown forever, which you also don’t seem to accept as an option.
None of the options are good, but ultimately no matter what I highly doubt it will be eradicated from the world so yes, evolve and move on is all that can ultimately happen.
You’re going off on tangents again.
I’m simply saying, there should be additional funding allocated for new hospitals to be built to assist with the long term impacts of covid.
90kw – building hospitals would be nice, as I’m SURE that beds-per-1000 people has been trending down for decades (I haven’t tried to check the stats)
Some illnesses (due to foreign organisms) would remain with us if we did not invent the means to make them extinct..
Europeans managed to survive alongside smallpox while conquering the world. I call that moving on.
Covid will likely remain with us no matter what we do, just like cold and flu.
Smallpox even helped lots in the conquest of the americas….
so life goes on regardless. Just… not for everyone.
Not for anyone, on a long enough timeframe.
Being bombarded by a handful of pandemics all at once was pretty devastating, and is pretty strong evidence it wasn’t the diseases that got weaker with time, despite that not being what people want to hear or believe.
I agree here too. Seems like what happened is that the most vulnerable died and, eventually, medicine improved to help the less vulnerable.
but even today smallpox or TB would screw you up proper, if you were to get it. it’s not like we’re all magically immune or the diseases have become impotent
It kind of is. That’s how evolutions works. The Europeans were far more resistant to the diseases than the native populations, although the survivors of the native populations probably ended up with similar resistance.
The spanish flu is still around and we still don’t have preventative treatments for it.
One theory for why hiv is a much bigger problem for people of african descent than europeans is that the europeans had their immune system selected for defeating the black plague among other things, which aafricans never had.
But right up to the point that smallpox was eradicated with very effective vaccines – smallpox would fuck you up if you got it.
TB will still fuck you up now unless you get the very effective antibiotics. (Pray you don’t get the drug-resistant kind).
So there is potential for diseases to remain circulating and very potent. And for good immunity not to develop…. Until medical miracle comes along.
other diseases clearly do cut a swathe and then burn out, having mown down the vulnerable and leaving the others largely immune
Covid will fuck you up if you are unlucky.
What changes over time is the number of people that get it that bad.
Well yes. And this goes to the question of will lockdowns ever stop? What will ever change?
as the days tick by, the calculus changes incrementally. Perhaps Largely by spreading the impact over time (ie all the people that would die would still die, but over a few years) but also to some extent by giving time for some kind of medical miracle to happen.
There is Zerohedge in the long run.
sometimes a successful bioweapon is one htat your enemy is culturally inept to apply.
e.g. if a bioweapon can be fought successfully by regular hand wash only, it would wipe out some nations, like Queenslanders
What do you mean why bother? The health system was already behind from the population ponzi, now there is covid.
I take it by your reply you think covid will disappear in a few years? There is zero evidence of that happening so far.
Even if people don’t die as much with 80% plus vax rates, it is entirely possible if not likely there will be long term strain on the hospital system from people getting sick.
With any luck the vaccines will continue to work better over time but by the evidence out there, we know it just limits damage.
In fact, if anyone bothered, getting more hospitals out of covid would be about the only positive to come from it the whole debacle.
Depends on how you define long term, but the reality is if you truly let it rip the people who are going to die from it will already be dead in a year or 2 and the ongoing death rate will fall back the way that of the spanish flu did a few years after that pandemic.
It may not be nice, it may not be what you want to believe, but that doesn’t make it false. I am also yet to see a compelling case for any other option than “some medical miracle will save us” which is looking less and less likely as time progresses.
It isn’t just about people dying. How many times have I said this to you over about a half dozen posts now… It’s always been about not overwhelming the hospital system, as much as avoiding deaths.
So the numerator of that is bad cases of covid, the denominator is hospital capacity. I’m saying increase long term hospital capacity to assist manage the impacts.
Hospitals take years to build. No one has started building any yet. No one is even talking about it. In my opinion lockdown forever is FAR MORE LIKELY than building up 30-50% more hospital capacity to deal with it. Even let it rip, probably by accident is far more likely.
The best way to not overwhelm hospitals is to flatten the curve, but I concede that may not actually be possible since it requires a lot more cases than we have now and may get out of control. Hence we will eradicate until it gets out of control by accident.
200 cases a day is 200,000 cases every 1000 days/3 years or 2 million cases in 30 years.
The lockdowns are gonna go a long time to flatten the curve at current rates.
Frankly I find “if we build more hospitals” to be a lot like “if we implement macroprudential”
Yes it would make things better but is so unlikely to happen that it may as well not exist as an option.
It is a sad day when having a reasonable pipeline of public health infrastructure is deemed all too hard.
Meanwhile, EZFKA residents complain whenever there is no hospital capacity.
I also confess this is what ought to happen – versus what probably will – as per your comment no one is talking about it. The fact that no one is talking about it speaks volumes for the lack of leadership and planning more than about 3 years into the future i.e. the next political term.
Show me the incentives and i’ll tell you the outcomes.
Takes time to build as well as to train the staff able to run said hospitals.
Those in control of spending also tend to have the attitude that there’s no point spending more on health, as it will simply get used up. Have seen this go on for years whenever there is ambulance ramping and calls for more public hospital beds.
Yes. Any wonder it’s easy to complain about living standards dropping though when state governments neglect their duties of care. Can’t see the situation improving either.
The slow grind forward into forever deteriorating conditions will roll on.
Too much ossified crap to undo.
Need a desert to start afresh in. like the Jews did in Israel in the last 80 (?) years.
Perhaps those Roman blokes were onto something when they created a desert and called it “peace”….
Getting a bit tired of talking COVID.
What’s your thinking about trades?
I’ve heard a few sources talking about oil going up big time in the next 1-2 years as reopening plus years of under investment put a rocket under prices – mirroring coal? Thinking of buying in.
Was very surprised to see BTC back up of $40k just now. Ethereum’s looking pretty strong – straight line up since mid-july. Something is up.
AUDUSD – going nowhere right now. More stable than I expect after reading DLS’s doom saying. Got out of my short position with a profit – barely.
What about inflation? Transitory argument is that supply shortages are COVID driven and so will fade after full reopening established for a while. Structural argument is that so much money has been printed and distributed that hgiher prices are here to stay. Have I missed anything?
Probably the most uninteresting conversation imaginable
the whole thing is rigged
would rather discuss the quinella at Mooney valley tbh
Imagine a central bankers boot stomping on a human face forever
Oil was the trade May last year when everyone was freaking out I thought it would be $80 in 2022 when everyone on MB thought I was mad but it turned around even quicker.
I think the reopening trade is looking shaky travel, airlines, hotels, casinos, restaurants looking bad when much of the cold parts of northern hemisphere face lockdowns or rolling lockdowns of varying degrees over the upcoming winter.
The market is also 4400 right now not 2600. It only takes something less than good news to see people take profit.
At some point there comes a realisation that international leisure travel is not coming back. Maybe during warm months, but in many places people will be effectively hibernating for 4 months every year maybe more demanding how shit the climate is.
I do think with lockdowns in the northern hemisphere the general market can still grind up with subsidies given to businesses and extra money to people out of work and forced to stay home. It could be best case scenario for the market to have USA style lockdowns come the northern winter.
I think SE QLD keeps attracting more and more people. It’s going to be an avalanche.
If the virus gets more deadly which it can with all the variants that these vaccines are encouraging then all bets are off.
Yes, US markets are priced for perfection.
Maybe general nervousness around Jackson Hole meeting will cause a pullback.
jackson hole is such an evocative name.
I think I will name my next villa “Jackson Hole”
I’m looking forward to the EZFKA Christmas party for us pleb losers at your humble abode Duchess Peachy.
Also it was impossible to make money on oil I found after booming several hundred %
OOO.asx got smashed, oil companies have now rallied but slowly… Ugh
Given at least 2 of your 4 tired of talking about covid trade discussion points are directly dependant on what happens with covid it’s a bit hard to avoid talking about it
I was looking at the ASX to see anything of value. The only stuff you could punt on were travel related or stuff that has gone down a lot in the last year like A2M, KGN or AGL. There is a lot at record values like CBA. I disagree with EmBee about CBA and it is mainly because DLS thinks he is Australia’s Marc Faber. My rationale is that it will go a bit higher as the housing boom will last longer and the TFF will become permanent with no MPLOL.
KGN I reckon is a buy, I never understood why their stock crashed 50% off the back off some temporary inventory oversupply
Also interested on A2M opinions
Agreed so much else is expensive st current valuations but with cash rates at 0.1% and staying that way for years or potentially going negative, who’s to say they will ever correct?
I was going to read more into KGN. It is probably cheap with our lockdowns. I wouldn’t consider AGL as separating the generation and retail business is the stupidest thing you could do considering generation is a natural hedge for retailing.
A2M depends on daigou and until borders are opened by stealth, it will hover. It has a good gimmick and probably will get some profitability once parcels are sent to China.
Has Kogan got anything on Amazon?
or are they just binding time before they are pummelled into the dirt?
Kogan has a massive headstart in Australia, and are operating in many verticals. Insurance, phone plans, finance, travel… Maybe too many verticals. But you can’t say they aren’t diversified or in the progress of doing so.
Amazon’s offering has also not been as strong in Australia thus far, although that may improve over time.
One may also argue that Kogan could be setting themselves up for takeover but who knows really.
Seeing that retail is investing heavily now, probably due to FOMO.
And retail’s history of buying at the top, and selling at the bottom, the Wall Street insiders might decide that the time has come to unload their positions to the bagholders (if they haven’t already) and wait for the next cycle to rinse and repeat.
I got bored with checking Bitcoin as it was consolidating for so long.
It touched the lower Fib level (38.2%, ~T42k) nicely on the rebound (see arrow).
See if it can reach the 50% retracement (~T47k) or even the higher Fib level at 61.8% (~T51k).
Other than that, there are red flags everywhere regarding regulation, which will be the end of Tether, not sure if any of the other ‘stable coins’ are any better.
Binance is in deep doo doo and some other exchanges seem to have trouble with convertibility to fiat when exiting.
All this will be damaging for market confidence in my view.
You have to ask yourself if it would be prudent to take at least some profit at some point until this has worked itself out, or do you want to go for the YOLO trade.
Historically the 200 weekly MA has been support, which is at ~T14k.
Do your own DD.
To talk my own book for once I’d love it to crash back to almost zero again to rinse and repeat the last few years gains.
But i think we will see a small retrace and then gains again.
Well, there were lots of entry points below $30k recently … but while that’s 50% off all time highs, it is also higher than all previous highs, so hard to buy, psychologically.
I also reckon that “almost $0” is very unlikely.
the regulation that might be coming – I see as much more likely to strengthen BTC than to destroy it.
Psychology, or the mental game, is the most difficult part of investing/trading.
It can be emotionally very draining, it is therefore good to find set entry and exit points (and actually following your strategy!) and in that way disconnect from any emotions.
Before you put on a trade decide where to get out if it goes against you (and don’t move the stop!). Much better than hoping that it will turn in your favour with the chance that your losses get bigger which makes it even harder to get out etc.
Also try not to listen to other peoples opinions or what the news is saying, just look at what the chart, or the trend, is telling you.
Anyone paying attention to the tax legislation being passed in regard to crypto wouldn’t be being as bullish:
The ‘excludes’ that is being referred to, is the excluded from the definition of a ‘broker’, which means obliged to record KYC/AML obligations in terms of who they are interacting with.
As I’ve long maintained, there is an important legal distinction between PoW and PoS in terms of these ‘currencies’ and tokens…. Lightening, ETH 2.0, and a whole swag of other cryptos and indeed the entire ‘industry’ are jepordised by the clarification to tax legislation contained in the bipartisan Biden Infrastructure Bill.
Just like as with Al Capone, they are likely to bring down most of the crypto Bro’s with evading tax.
I think they are moving quite slowly to give people ample warning.
Also there is a lot of unwinding to do as it has gotten so big to almost be systemic.
mel is and forever will be a fkn legend
So the humble water filter salesman reckons next week is when Biden goes full throttle and mandates vaccines nationally across most sectors. This would line up with the FCC emergency test on August 11.
I think the talking will end very will soon.
Speaking of which: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/united-becomes-first-airline-mandate-vaccines-all-employees
I’m surprised W@F has not commented on the right wing grifters article. I think you guys broke him.
Maybe he got arrested for being an arsehole?
That would be nice.
You can usually tell from the article rating – I’m pretty sure there’s only a couple of people who bother to 1 star it.
Bahaha that makes so much sense!
I always wondered how the rating would be 3 really soon after it went live, but ended at like 4.8 or something.
F’ing hilarious 😂
There’s obviously a hater out there who gives you a 1 star as soon as the links come up, then someone less impartial comes along and tries to balance it out with a 5 star.
Man. You guys are awesome. Seriously the level of support weekend links has got – very grateful. Still remember that first weekend it blew up was brilliant 😃
Some of us haven’t even bothered working out how to rate it at all…
Booster shots were always coming. LOL looking forward to the normies exploding when they realised what they signed up for, most of them will never admit it.
I don’t know how anyone could have been confused by this it’s been clear since day one that this is a annual or twice annual vaccine for life. It’s a vaccine that doesn’t immunise.
Think about a 4 year old going to kindy for the first time they are staring down the barrel of 14-28 of these powerful vaccines by the time they reach adulthood. They cause quite a reaction in many adults, it’s quite something else to be subjecting children to this twice a year so fat boomers with all kinds of underlying health problems can go to wine bars and restaurants without social distancing.
What is the cumulative toll on children of these very powerful vaccines we don’t know it’s uncharted waters for people to take this many inoculations.
They even advice pregnant women to get vaccinated with an experimental vaccine. Insanity.
It’s like a “twofer” deal!
In true EZFKA spirit these women should be charged double for the vax.
It was one shot until phama companies worked out you can double your profits by making it two shots. Now it is periodic boosters so that the money never stops.
nah, too infrequent.
It will be on shelves of your local woos and coos next to winged pads and paracetamol and a log book to carry or an app to upload films of oneself taking them
I’m looking forward to the triple vaxxers turning on the double vaxxers.
Yeah mate, 🤡🌎 we live in.
Waiting for Scotty to get his 3rd jab, then things will explode on all sides if they haven’t done so already. Can see him jumping the queue while many others haven’t had even their first dose.
Apple SCANNING your iPhone to check for CHILD ABUSE – THIS IS NOT PRIVACY!
More big tech surveillance.
As the Clinton’s quickly throw their iPhones in the fire/shredder/river ….
Wiped it with a cloth!
Hubless bicycle. I have visions of slipping off the seat and nads tangled in the chain and gearing. No thanks.
It certainly seems like fixing something that isn’t broken.
and how are the blue circular wheel mounts not hubs?
indeed, and besides it was done every so many years again and again.
Went to Woolworths this morning for the weekly shop and the guy who checks the QR checkin started to chat. He wasn’t pretty annoyed with lockdown number 6. Conversation pretty quickly got to the fact that we are locking down for the oldies who don’t seem to want to get vaccinated.
Next time you chat to your new mate, ask for an estimate of how many people just walk past the QR bullshit.
I am hearing NSW are data matching electronic payment locations to check-ins. If you are reluctant to check-in then make sure you pay with cash.
seriously? Can’t be right.
if you can track electronic payments, why the hell bother with QR codes in the first place?
Because eft records require voluntary provision by companies or a warrant. And realistically the records from the shop’s account then need to be correlated with account holder details from all the banks.
There is no doubt at all that electronic transactions could be tracked with some effort, they are probably* required to be kept for 7* years by law.
Potentially also like the facebook facial recognition fiasco shoving the complete lack of privacy in the modern world in peoples faces makes them uncomfortable.
thats what id have imagined. So I imagined it wasn’t being done.
…plus, I don’t hear about electronic transaction tracking being done anywhere else for the purposes of disease spread tracing…. And you can bet your tits on EZFKA not innovating anything.
Where else is doing contact tracing at all? When you reach thousands of cases a day it’s no longer remotely practical.
Additionally positive people are voluntarily giving up their bank records to the contact tracers based on the daily propaganda here in nsw.
Solution might also to be wear a mask and cap, plus use cash/prepaid card/gift card.
They can probably get you with your licence plate if you drive anyway.
I couldn’t imagine them bothering they’d just make an example of a few people to scare millions into using it.
Yeah. Presumably what they use those records for is when a COVID dude visits Coles at 3pm, they’ll get the records and contact everyone on the list as being in the shop (from 12pm to 5pm say).
thise who arent on the list (not having checked in) are not contacted. Nobody would get out the cash register data and the CCTV recordings to try to work out if there are any shoppers “missing”….
Not yet anyway. But it is doable with enough effort.
The CCP might have that level of sophistication where every move can be tracked through facial recognition cameras (I think they can track you through other physical characteristics and your gait now), bank transactions, licence plates, QR code check ins, everything accessible to the government, but certainly not here.
The COVID safe app was too hard for the Australian government.
All they need to do is ask facebook nicely.
Facebook was tagging me automatically years ago when I didn’t even have an acount.
He didn’t even ask if I had checked in. Some take the job seriously and the rest enjoy a chinwag.
I want to ask about the privacy statement and where the data will be used.
If you use the QR code the government has it so any answer is unlikely to be truthful anyway.
Thanks for sharing and great summary emusplatt.
here’s an interesting grab:
Agri has been done to death elsewhere already, but the other bit of this claim is bloody remarkable. Somehow there are shortages in hospitality and accommodation industries, with borders shut.
so we must open borders to import the staff to service the other imports, …when we import them.
Shane is definitely a legendary-level spiv.
No, we need to import staff to work in bondi, and the eastern suburbs to enable the wealthy to continue to get cheap services they are accustomed to.(very nsw centric)
Surprised they couldn’t get Liz Allen to weigh in on this :p
Currently stuck in the Suez Canal, poor thing.
She was recently featured in Science Magazine as they
had discovered two satellites orbiting her body.
I come for the incisive economic analysis, I stay for the high-brow ‘umour!
because i dont have a smartphone im always required to “check in” to places using the writing pads, and my way around it without outright comitting fraud is to just scribble my name and phone number so illegibly nobody would ever be able to read it. i recommend everybody else start doing this.
I couldn’t imagine not having a smart phone. What’s your reason for avoiding them?
Sometimes old phones aren’t compatible with the QR software. I know in Victoria, my old phone from 2014 doesn’t run a compatible version of Android. You can still scan with a generic QR reader app, but it directs you to a website basically saying it doesn’t work with your software. If not online, it just shows up as a string of random letters and numbers.
Back when lockdown first started and the codes where introduced, I’d show that to people checking and they’d have no idea about it.
At the end of the day, if people really want to remain undetected and anonymous it’s not hard to leave off your surname and switch a few numbers in your phone contact details. The trick is to obviously do it smoothly without any indication that you’re doing something unnatural.
their remedy for that is “can’t get in”.
So a venue cooperation is required for such avoidance (not evasion).
I should check, perhaps old Nokia phones have gone the way of secondhand cars… just thinking
Evasion wasn’t even the intent – as everything had gone into lockdown, it’s not like I could easily drop into Officeworks or JB to buy a new phone at the time and while I’m quite good with IT in general, flashing a new phone OS (for an obscure old phone) was going to be time consuming and not something I could afford to get wrong.
I know for older generations it was also hard – my parents have old phones without the fancy bells and whistles, so would also have needed to upgrade to. So instead they just stayed home.
I did upgrade as I didn’t want to take any chances of get stopped from inspecting properties at the time (plus tax reasons) as I only had a short window of opportunity. During that process I noticed most buyers were writing details as opposed to scanning – but that probably speaks to the generation gap.
I personally am OK with providing actual details on the written forms presuming they will actually be destroyed after a few weeks, and they are much harder to abuse since a search by name is essentially impossible, you can only search by location.
The serviceNSW data will live in a database forever with almost 100% certainty, and be searchable by any piece of data on it.
If you are using eftpos then you are already giving this information anyway, and potentially with enough effort if you are merely carrying a phone.
Alternately you can just tell them you signed in already, that seems to work.
you cold check in once, make a screen grub and then just display the image at the doors. Of course, this would be illegal and you should go to jail for life (IMO)
I just walk past and no one says anything. Security legally cannot do anything.
All these fake compliance is compliance to them and if you’re really that scared of a confrontation then stick a fork in the country now then.
The dicks that take a fake photo on their phone are the worst. Just walk past you wimps.
The Morrison government has held talks with major gambling company Tabcorp on designing a lottery open only to those vaccinated against Covid-19. The Saturday Paper has confirmed the government sought advice from Tabcorp on how a lottery could be designed to encourage vaccination, after the company indicated in July that it supported the idea.
Asked to comment, Tabcorp provided the same statement it issued in July, saying it supported the lottery idea. “That remains our response,” a spokesman said.
It comes as Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese proposes a more direct alternative – $300 cash handouts to those already vaccinated or who get vaccinated by December 1, at a cost of $6 billion. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has dismissed the suggestion as “an insult” to Australians who didn’t need cash to do the right thing.
Well, surprise surprise, Tabcorp supports running a lottery and Scott is too cowardly to make franking credit refunds and interest deductions contingent on the administration of the chemical agent.
I think it’s because you can rig the lottery – better have it go to a potential donor than spread it amongst the plebs! EZFKA units have no need for cash handouts.
I can’t believe that site is not satire. It’s really slick I thought it was satire at first.
Look who is writing for news.com.au:
I am starting to think that EmBee days will be numbered given that one of them is writing for other publications.
the chad lvo vs the virgin dls
Looks more like an mb add than an article.
f me…. I guess a 1-5% fall after a run up of what is it now, 150% over the last ten years?
as far as I’m concerned, you can through all the arguments for lower housing and asset prices as you want. the fact is with all the money printing, everything is going up.
Leith has a family to feed so I won’t begrudge him writing columns elsewhere. A few Australian finance/economics journos write for multiple publications – eg. Tariq Brooker (https://twitter.com/AvidCommentator) who I feel has been more on the ball and relevant. Kind of like embee when it first started out.
Then again, perhaps those subs aren’t subbing…
just bought 4 frozen pizzas from an everything $10 or less store for $3 each
i will feast like a king tonight
What do you go for on pizzas?
olives? Pineapple? Egg? Anchovies?
A very thin smattering of cheese, some red colouring and 2 pieces of ham and a piece of pineapple based on the shop description.
it’s a bit of oxymoron there. 😉
Kings did not eat pizzas and there’s another one eat like a ______ when one is eating too much.
I rediscovered pizza with vegetarian types. The “meat” in them makes me sick, in two ways. Would eat anchovies only, if with a meat
So last week I gave bcnich the red pill and alerted him to the presence of ezfka.com
he was very excited and promised he would come and post here but we still haven’t seen him
we really need someone to take a retarded contrarian position so that we can have arguments
is there anyone else who believes house prices will fall and can get the ball rolling instead ?
He will never show up here. He needs to be surrounded by those in the MB echo chamber. Who we really need here is the MB oracle, the one who first started shit posting MB 8+ years ago as a housing bull, only to turn out to be the most correct compared to all MB authors… Reusa
I think bcnich will come for a chat. I trust bcnich’s word and honour.
he comes from a good place, even if his predictions have been wrong.
Master Reusa, too.
At least he will be free to post his astrological housing predictions here without fear of censorship!
someone try and find DrX
that David Collyer guy would be good for a laugh.
Hugh Pavelitch might come here to advertise his blog lol
I have here a very rare recording of Reusa preaching his wisdom:
Reusa is lurking around somewhere, I’ve seen him mention “that other blog”
To be fair DD, most people on MB don’t agree with bcnich. He is often ridiculed for his views. There are a large number of very repentant bears on that site now… many have capitulated and purchased homes…
The bears on MB thought that the housing situation was in a “state of nature” of sorts, with various natural and random influences producing outcomes. Outcomes that could be anticipated and predicted if one was just scientific enough and smart enough.
MB bears (and authors) didn’t realise that the they were in a game. A carefully controlled and well choreographed one. Run by people with power and lots of levers and knobs through which to exercise it.
this is how EZFKA discourse is different. It acknowledges vested interests and power relationships.
Edit: also we don’t have stick up our asses.
While I wouldn’t mind a bnich outcome, you can see how they will proceed with recent articles on NIRP, and increasing Global Talent Visas for PR will ensure a constant flow of dollars for property.
I think eventually bcnich will be right, just timing is, as always, difficult.
At the moment it’s just a confidence game and what keeps the charade going is more money creation and lower interest rates.
Has been tried many times through history and failed every time.
Are we really that much ‘smarter’ now?
I’m not convinced.
If bcn is right in 8-10 years time then he’ll still be wrong…
plus it’s easy to think you’re smart poking holes into everything, predicting a crash. that’s the appeal to the permabear attitude. and it really is very appealing. because you get to think you’re smarter than everyone. and when it turns out you’re wrong you can say “oh, well the game is rigged.” ffs that’s the point… of EZFKA…
its the old ‘broken clock is right once a day” theme.
I think it’s good to listen to bears, if they have valid points.
Some people hate short sellers for the same reason, I think they provide a valuable service by poking holes in quarterly reports and calling out BS.
I was thinking recently again that the last severe Aussie crisis was in the 90s, if I’m not mistaken.
So let’s say people that time in their teens didn’t really experience that personally by losing a job or a house or something like that.
That means that Aussies 45 years and younger never experienced a crisis. What do you think that does to your outlook on life? It means you think the good times are never going to end. This is bad on many levels.
In Europe we have about 10 year cycles. 6-7 good years, and 3-4 lean or bad years. You learn to make as much money as you can in the good years and put some away for the bad.
Aussies do none of that, they go all out full pelt YOLO.
If this goes pear shaped nobody knows how to deal with it emotionally because they have never experienced it in any way, so it’s going to be catastrophic on a personal level for many people.
What do you mean?
He wasn’t that out there was he?
And every time it didn’t happen it was still 3-6 months away. No reason for why it didn’t happen, just repeated the same reasons over and over again for why it would.
Hahaha! That bad hey?
As I said timing is difficult/impossible and you shouldn’t even try really.
Will we have a great(er) depression?
I think we will, but not likely in 6 months.
bcn not that out there?
bcn used to say that the finance market correlated with solar flares and astrological events. Then said he was just joking when MB started censoring him.
He also said that a crash of epic proportions was going to occur last year. Then changed it to mid-this year and has again shifted the goal posts to end of this year. His predictions included a massive depression where people would be unable to survive, huge soup lines and people unable to give away townhouses/apartments in Melbourne. Oh and rates were going to rise massively.
Sure there might be a crash of some sort. But this doomsday zombie apocalypse stuff that’s always 12-18 months (lol) away isn’t going to happen. EZFKA is a casino and the house always wins!
😂 Ahhh, good times!
bcn’s ears must be burning, just now on MB –
“They won’t even need to worry about MPLOL
10 year US bond yields are going up to 3%, looks they have found a bottom
Home loan interest rates will follow bond yields up into end of year
Think we will see some nice rises into Xmas
Fixed rates up 3.50 to 4% variable not sure but higher, probably same
What are we 2.20% to 2.50% type of range
3.50 to 4.0% is enough to hurt & scare many
The financial markets are going to take care of this for them”
Someone needs to get him post that stuff here. “EZFKA” is blocked on MB nowadays lol
oh, they blocked “EZFKA”? How flattering!
on Bcnich’s post – I do believe he misses the possibility that mortgage rates are not connected to bond markets.
….even though TFF demonstrated that….
I believe even the bond rates haven’t moved as he predicted, but it’s not like I follow either him or them that closely.
Yeah, bond rates have done rather little.
but the point I’m making is that even if he is ultimately right about bonds (I think-unlikely), he still prob won’t be right about mortgages. Because mortgages aren’t bonds. And they don’t need to be funded by bonds.
in which case his housing calls are even more unlikely that might first appear.
I absolutely agree with that.
He hasn’t even been right about bonds because they are also being manipulated down and it’s not like CB’s are making a secret of it.
I think this is all possible.
It has happened in the past so what makes you think it’s impossible now?
Like I said this is EZFKA and the house always wins.
Realistically if the crash was going to happen it would have been at the start of covid when GDP took a dip to -7%. No bear foresaw the lengths government and banks would go to (me included). A lot of people were predicting dark days ahead, Martin North for example. Instead property got a hot stimulus injection up the ass and now we’re back at peak prices in the middle of a worldwide pandemic.
The game is rigged. The government/RBA revealed their hand and we now see what lengths they can go to. If things take a dip again they will stimulate more, NIRP, mortgage holiday, let people raid their remaining super and make 50 year mortgages.
Sure it might happen but there’s also a very good chance it won’t. Which means in 10 years time a Sydney house will be worth $2.5m. Meanwhile all those bears sitting on the sidelines will be still talking about the crash crash coming in 18 months on MB, while living with their parents.
Just because the permabears think house prices should come down based on logic, data and ethics does not mean the banks are or will play by the rules…
The only way a depression will come is if the banking elites allow it and make no mistake they will be on the winning side. At the moment there’s nothing to suggest that’s going to happen at the moment, their making too much money as is.
I’m not really concerned with house prices specifically, but more the bigger picture.
You are right that the game is rigged.
By central banks controlling the levers of money supply and interest rates they have control over the economy.
They can blow bubbles by increasing the money supply (QE) and lowering interest rates, and create crashes by raising interest rates and limiting the money supply (QT).
They have us by the short and curly.
House prices is just one symptom of the rigging.
But I think you have too much confidence in the Honourable PhDs running the show. With every intervention by them, they create more imbalance, which then needs ever bigger interventions to regain control again. I can’t see this any other way than that we are being set up for the Mother Of All Crashes™ at some point in time.
The GFC was ‘saved’ with about a trillion. For Covid they needed more than 10 trillion (talking US numbers here) a factor of 10x. What about next time, will 50 trillion be needed? A 100 trillion?
That’s how confidence in the currency is lost, because it becomes meaningless and without value. Once that happens it could all unravel very quickly.
I rather err on the safe side and propose that the PhDs are not as smart as they think they are and will ultimately fail.
the great depression was a decision that was made, or possibly forced by current wisdom regarding the nature of money.
To repeat it now would require a decision to not print and force hardship on the people.
Probably the only thing to potentially provoke a revolution so I think they won’t be doing it anytime soon.
Ultimately you stop kicking the can down the road when you no longer want to. Until that point you can come up with ever more creative ways to keep it moving along.
it happened in the past in the absence of massive concentrated power with federal governments.
Pensum, DD and bjw678.
You all seem to think that the bankers don’t want crashes or crises.
While all the while the boom and bust cycle of markets has been a feature, not a bug, from central banks to enrich the insiders and consolidate the assets in fewer and fewer hands.
Just think about a simple example:
-An insider buys a house for $100k.
-Central bank inflates the money supply.
-House price goes up to $200k.
The insider gets a nod and a wink from his insider mates that the bubble is about to pop and sells the house.
-Central bank deflates money supply and house market crashes.
-House is back to $100k and insider can now buy two houses.
-Rinse and repeat.
This example is applicable to any asset.
If you repeat this long enough over 100 years you end up with conglomerates like Blackstone and Vanguard that have about $20 trillion AUM between them.
The reason we haven’t seen a market crash due to Covid yet is only because they are creating a bigger bubble, and a bigger crash.
But they have now refined the process.
Either the banks just lend directly to the insiders at almost zero rates, or the government sells assets to the insiders at ridiculously generous prices, or outright gives government money to them no strings attached.
All these things achieve the same ends with much less discontent and potential revolution from the masses.
Nothing new there that hasn’t been tried before.
I’ll put my money on history and human fallibility.
Time will tell…
I am not convinced either Sacha, but their is a saying “markets can stay stupider longer than you can remain solvent”. You are definitely right about history and I personally don’t believe we are smarter than before. We have just all in on fractional banking fiat. This will ultimately fail.
Plus, here it is state backed and there seems to always be a new scheme to kick the can down the road.
also, it’s helpful to remember that a marker is just one kind of distribution mechanism.
the distributional outcomes can be skewed in many many ways some apparently “outside” the market…. This helps the market seem irrational, when, in fact, it is not.
eg you can shout “this P/E is unsustainable” until you’re blue in the face. But you’ll be the moron for not realising that there are things at play at the P other than just the E. The “market view” is incomplete.
If this actually fails society in large part will probably fail as well. I haven’t seen any sensible realistic options to hedge against this so am ignoring it at this point.
well, it’s not a “neat” hedge, but I think that in that situation you’d want to belong to (or at least be affiliated with) some kind of strong tribe and also have guns.
Like, say, the boys that are members of motorcycle clubs – they’d do alright. And the cops.
and you also need to have a good idea of what to grab.
There are precedents for this in places like the collapsed USSR. The currency and pretense of rule of law went out the window. Some people proceeded to get very rich.
Moving to a remote area and being self sufficient is also a hedge.
But it, along with your options have significant costs associated with them compared with not doing them.
You can be a prepper and spend your life waiting for the end of the world, or you can enjoy your life and just die if the world ends. Given how shit the end of the world would be even if you had prepped it doesn’t strike me as the best option to waste my life prepping.
I don’t disagree. As I wrote – it’s not a neat hedge.
maybe the next best thing is having a plan.
Plan so that you know which muscular group you could suck up to and join, if the need arose 😉
The groups would do well because they are tight knit and closed. I don’t think they will be all that interested in new members after TEOTWAWKI.
like see here. And these are the sedate elderly ones
Yeah, I’m not saying you can’t make money.
Just calling for a healthy bit of caution because with every can kick the financial system gets more out of balance.
like that other Mike character in mikemb and other guises, it is not a view, it is a belief/cult.
Dare I say, once again, that here are so many alter ego’s of the 3-letters-initial people
Mike seemed to me to be largely on the ball, actually.
In general premise I agree.
His numbers are questionable, although they probably don’t exist at all to be fair.
but view that is held zealously is not a view but a cult (is what I am saying).
Someone said that here, above
Had anyone tried to back check his facts? I really liked where he was going with the narrative but I always felt his numbers were massive. Wasn’t he claiming there were something like 1m illegal immigrants in Australia or some such insane number… 100,000 I could stomach but not 1m.
In line with Biden’s 350mil Yanks vaxxed….
at best it is a creative numberwang
or how does he define “illegal”
I like his posts although they are pretty long
new UK data out released today
shows that vaccines are nearly useless at stopping you from catching it
and actually somehow increased chance of death from the virus in under 50s (probably because those who were vaccinated are less likely to have comorbidities)
but overall one of the most useless vaccines in existence
and certainly zero public health justification for vaccination
I don’t seem to be able to post pictures for some reason ?
but the key table is on page 18-19 if someone else can do it
-50/50 cases split vax and unvax imo suggesting that the vaccine does exactly nothing to stop you contracting it
-48 deaths in 148,000 cases in unvaxxed under 50
-13 deaths in 25,000 cases in fully vaxxed under 50
wow! Probably due to comorbidities in the latter group but still very very concerning
-205 deaths in 3440 cases in unvaxxed
-389 deaths in 21,400 cases in vaxxed
this is more worrying for the virus, and more convincing for the efficacy of vaccine
BUT why is the comorbidity effect not seen here but is the excuse for the younger group ?
I guess because comorbidities maybe almost universal in over 50s
However , it could also be the vaccine killing a small number of people which is statistically more visible in the young (where the vaccine might be more deadly than the virus)
For the <50s, looks like presentation to emergency (and overnight stay after presentation) is about 2-3x more common.
Do you reckon it’s because more caution is exercised by the unvaxed themselves and by the emergency doctors towards the unvaxed?
or because the jab makes symptoms a bit milder overall?
would you bother to go to hospital with cold and flu symptoms if you had been vaccinated for the rona?
but yeah its a weird one i don’t know what to make of it
Thanks for posting link to this UK data.
Agree with your assessment that composition bias is likely a factor in these numbers and explains the higher CFR for under 50s. Still it is hardly a ringing endorsement of the vaccination for the < 50s if it can’t even shift the needle enough to mask/compensate for this bias.
Strangely you’re actually better off having had only a single dose more than three weeks ago if you’re under 50 – CFR of just under 0.01%, at least from this data!
Isn’t statistical noise wonderful.
I watched ‘The Fly’ from 1986 last night:
The story line sounds cheesy but it’s a nicely made movie with good acting from Jeff Goldblum and Geena Davis.
I noticed a tune with that unmistakable 80s sound in a bar scene
and it is Bryan Ferry with ‘Help Me’:
Jeff Goldblum as Brundle Fly…. the corrosive vomit was quite the special effect back in the day.
I saw it when just released and only now again and was pleasantly surprised it’s still watchable.
https://youtu.be/bdSKh84lPLA lots of folks needing mortgage deferrals apparently.
The game has always been ensuring demand exceeds supply, and then controlling prices via debt. With the immigration tap turned off they have resorted to constraining supply by zeroing out repossessions.
I would not be surprised to see zero mortgage rates and perpetual delinquency. Basically you can have a $1m+ mortgage and forever remain on welfare without ever having to repay the debt or being kicked out of home.
And the vaccines are not working as advertised.
The story line now is that they ‘reduce the severity of symptoms’, that’s all.
I hope eventually people will start fuming and burn this mofo down with all the feckless shits that are responsible.
Good find. Extend and pretend is here to stay, Heise’s fears will be confirmed and mortgagekeeper is already happening.
Heise is painful to watch IMO. Literally adds no value to articles you can read in your spare time.
A thoughtfully cautious Vax summary from John Wilder.
Finally got around to reading the wilder site.
lots of fun – thanks!
No worries. He’s a very clever guy, writes well and has the worst collection of puns and Dad jokes in the universe. A regular read for me.
Good link – with the exception of the prion suggestion all of the reasons offered, were reasonable motivations to be hesitant about the mass vaccination program. The possibility that the vaccines result in a Markek’s disease outcome is probably the one that concerns me the most, followed by some version of ADE.
So is markeks disease an actual thing? And all birds must get some shot now?
Interesting to see how far the government will go to silence its critics. Not a fan of Julian Burnside, but the response from the WA bar assication is a ripper.
movie suggestion for this week (in no particular order):
1. Abre los ojos (1997) [Open Your Eyes]When you’re not sure if you’re dreaming or is it reality. You know, like when meditating Jamiacan style or if you came home and Scarlet Johansson has just cooked Boeuf bourguignon herself and the table is set for just the two of you.
2. Vanilla Sky (2001)
a remake of the above, decent one. Worth the watch but only *after* watching the original. It succeeded by not overburdening the original story and not americanising it beyond recognition.
whilst in the ‘metaphysical’ department, another suggestion:
3. Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas (1998)
Always excellent Terry Gilliam of Monthy Python troupe, this is a story of unique-never-ever-successfully-mimicked Hunter S. Thompson experiences of so-called ‘gonzo journalism’ as told from own experience and participation.
A pinnacle for Johny Depp and Benicio del Torro
4. Where the Buffalo Roam (1980)
In this biopic movie, Bill Murray portrays Hunter and it is equally well acted as Johny Depp in former.
5. The Rum Diary (2011)
based on a book by Hunter, it gained entry simply because it is not as bad as reviews otherwise suggest and it is on the same topic. If that does not suffice, then watch it for erectile abilities of Amber Heard (when not married to her) around 1h:38m.
On Hunter S. Thompson himself:
I watched Django with Franco Nero on your recommendation, I quite liked it.
A while back I remembered an obscure French movie but couldn’t recall the name. As I also couldn’t remember any of the actors’ names I was stuck and had given up on finding it. Then when I was browsing movies on BitChute I found it by happenstance.
Turns out it was a French spoken Belgian movie (with English subs):
‘C’est Arrive Pres De Chez Vous’ aka ‘Man Bites Dog’.
tnx, it sems interesting, material for bedtime television
the CEO story is from the 4. March but that does not relieve it from being as ominous.
This is what I keep saying to people. The billionaire class isn’t taking this shit and if they do the photo op injection it’s usually saline or staged.
But there are dumbshits who worship social proof.
Melbourne’s sixth lockdown and I feel that people have well and truly had enough and have pushed past boundaries. A place on the corner was having a small party last night. Today, walked past cafes and saw large lines. People meeting up and sitting at benches eating lunch. I think the threat that we will keep having these sharp lockdowns has not gone down well and people are increasingly becoming over it.
i think people are slowly absorbing the statistics ….and realising that the rona is much more likely to knock off their grumpy old neighbour or fatarse banker than it is likely to do anything to them personally.
so they don’t mind running the chance of getting it/spreading it.
the fear is fading.
Knock off a fatarse banker…🤔 Explains why we keep locking down, we can’t let such distinguished members of society get sick.
it’s pointless anyway. it’s out and it’s not being eliminated again. to eliminate it at this stage from NSW you have to do full China-style lockdown. can’t see it happening. not 18 months into this thing. not with vaccines (whatever your view of them is). not watching the UK, Europe, US get on with life
I also can’t see them letting it run to dozens or hundreds of deaths a day, every day without doing something so lockdowns forever?
ok fair point. I forget the hysterical media there and ‘one death is too many’ in Australia.
the doing soemthing might be ‘vaccinations’ though. that seems to be where it is heading
In fairness, we have a “one death is too many” here as well.
In fact everyone agrees with that statement until pressed with specific tradeoffs and then begrudgingly concede that maybe one is ok.
People are just not logical or don’t think things through very thoroughly.
People will quite happily say they want affordable housing for their children while also saying they want their house to increase in price.
yeah. And as we’ve been discussing (above or below) – death is unavoidable, in time.
so, it pays to remember, we’re not actually choosing between “death or no death”. We’re choosing between “death sometime sooner or death sometime later”.
and this is rather a different thing.
People are really good at self delusion though. Especially about death. We create entire global organisations on the promise of beating it.
pensum, would you go as far as to say that Gladys let it run a bit “too long” deliberately?
so that the subsequent containment/lockdown attempt would fail?
you know I’m starting to think she did… totally baseless, just a feeling 🙂
You didn’t ask me, but yes. They can sense the public mood and have decided to let it go, and then throw their hands in the air while bleating “we did our very best”.
Yeah, that’s kind of what I’m getting at.
Given the slow ramping up of restrictions when she could just leave them as they were originally set, I doubt it.
Closing construction blew up in her face so I really doubt she would do that if controlling it wasn’t the intention.
A group of lawyers trying to keep a whole heap of vested interests happy may not be the best managers of a pandemic.
Isn’t China also having problems with Delta outbreaks?
But you are right. NSW is in no man’s land. It vaccination rates are too low to let it rip, it has no stomach for Wuhan style lockdowns. They are really just hoping that the numbers just go down. I think they will, but it will be a slow process.
Based on the results i’m seeing 100% vax isn’t enough to let it rip.
Gladys was very cagey when asked what freedoms were going to be allowed at 80% vax at the daily propagandfest today so she is already prepping to continue lockdowns at that point.
I really wish that this would come to pass.
80% or 90% of the EZFKA units jabbed and Gladys (or whoever) tries another lockdown.
I want to see who/where would crack. Who will lead the revolution. And what targets they will set fire to first.
“It’s for your own protection” is a much easier sell than “this will kill a significant portion of the population.”
Even the contrarian MB is massively pro lockdown.
Fear is a powerful driver especially when it’s valid.
Hunger is an even more powerful driver but as long as society keeps on keeping on without significant shortages I don’t think people will be partaking of a revolution.
We are already drifting towards a police state, the community has mostly been disarmed and laws are getting stricter “to protect us”
The police commissioner is actively telling NSW how many people have dobbed in their neighbours every day and encourages everyone else to do it as well.
I also put it at a greater than 0 probability NSW is still in lockdown when they get to 80% vax, and also that we never get to 80%.
I’d say that never getting to 80 is a real possibility.
but I don’t rate the possibility of NSW trying to lockdown in earnest if jabs are >80%
now, they may call another lockdown when jabs are >80% as a pantomime to cover for the ineffective jabs: eg “just another four weeks over Christmas 2022 to flatten the curve” (knowing people will disobey en masse, cause massive spread, and allow the government to throw their hands up in the air, claim they tried their best and blame the people).
but not in earnest.