BTC is up past $20000 again – is it a trap?

Is it a trap?

Is there price discovery behind BTC or is it just insiders jimmying the price higher to get some money out? Is there a diffference? My hunch is that $20k is the new base for BTC like $5k was after the 2018 massacre. It gets a bit below, it goes a bit above, until the next halving.

Now lets see how many comments are about BTC vs hapas and memes.

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BING!

In anticipation of bad news Tether printer go brrrrr…..

BING!

Emory Tate

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Peachy

I don’t get it..?

Azrael

Might be the father of andrew tate?
BTW, rumble between Hamilton HAPAS and Sunnybank CHANGS is a go.

Coming

Why are you trying to predict the movement of a market that is 100% fraudulent ?

the price is whatever the tether and exchange criminals want it to be

Coming

It must be very entertaining to hold

let’s talk about Britt Higgins and hapas again

Freddy

The BTC reward halving is a pyramid scheme which should have been outlawed years ago. But nevertheless we are still here. A few months ago I mentioned BTC would fall back to its electricity cost of mining and it did.

comment image

Peachy

I’m not sure that I really buy into the idea that the price of Bitcoin in anchored to the marginal cost of production.

especially considering that mining difficulty adjusts, I don’t see it as a floor…… nor do I see it as a ceiling….

Reus's Large MEMBER

However it would be a point of resistance, and would likely always revert to higher than the cost of mining, no one would want to mine for a loss.

Stewie

Nice chart Freddy – I missed your comment about BTC falling back to its electrical costs of production. If I’d seen it I would have definitely agreed with it.

I personally don’t see this price as being particularly stable or strong. I think it is just the reflex action of a few whales buying BTC again on the prospect/hope of lower inflation and interest rates.

Exchanges are still going out the door backwards, regulators are now cutting loose and launching lawsuits and enforcing regulation, and some of the biggest participants who’ve played among the biggest roles in hyping and pushing the crypto agenda e.g. DCG are still likely to go out the door backwards with their exchanges.

I wrote about DCG in one of my early articles, BTC is the Establishment:

If there is ONE company that any investor in the crypto space should be aware of it is Digital Currency Group (DCG) and the role it plays in controlling literally hundreds of crypto companies ranging from online digital exchanges (I count at least 9) as well as many of the supposed Crypto media organisations that play such an important role in disseminating DCG propaganda.

If DCG is allowed to fail, then it is all over – the Establishment have bought enough time to co-opt or catch up with the technology. If DCG is bailed out then there is a small chance we may see another surge.

But that, imho, is a story for another day. At the moment I just see the current move as dumb risk on trading by a few whales in a market with thinner liquidity than it has been for years.

Nemesis

It’s simple once interest rates go down and the money printer go brrrrr, bitcoin will skyrocket again

stagmal

ive tried to get fanatical blockchainers to explain to me what the big deal is about this shit and just stood there agape listening to their lame explanations about why this is so important and groundbreaking, blah blah blah

Coming

its retarded

dunning-kruger manifest

Stewie

Crypto is completely retarded. Blockchain technology is pretty cool for the limited number of use cases that it solves for.

Stewie

Crypto puts the cart before the horse. Blockchain mining rewards are a network bootstrapping mechanism, fees are miners rewards and token aka crypto merely the native token to price network usage in.

Doing work i.e. usage is the objective, usage refers to paying for service not sending internet money, that only completes the service. Virtually no crypto does any or is capable of doing any work at scale.

Coming

Here are the sun king’s latest pronouncements

along with skippy and migrtonix displaying severe mental illness

bcnichMEMBER
January 16, 2023 at 8:19 am
Over 2023 and 2024 we are headed back to a minimum 2000 levels and possibly 1990s prices
Over the decade back to 1989s prices
This mean reversion theory is rubbish
As rates head to 20% and I think 30% 5,6,7 years out you work out how much you can borrow
Do we get back to 70s prices I’m not sure but 80s definitely
How can you possibly build. Materials and labour will be way too expensive

Because in the down and crisis credit spreads will blow out house prices will crash. They will do the TFF facility again and do multiple times QE, house prices will stabilise and rise but nowhere near highs say 50% down 15/20% rise
Material costs will rise again to much higher levels as they blow inflation out of control
Each time it takes exponentially more QE and inflation and int rate will rise to even higher highs
So we’ve reached a secular top in property and secular top in bonds
Yes like now there will be counter trend corrections but interest rates are going higher and any rise in house prices will run into selling pressure to lower lows
Material prices haven’t reached a secular top
We are now in a new trend
Most people down understand nor have experienced a bond bear market
House prices rising forever is a myth

No1

Jumpingjackflash is the most tedious cunt, putting his Chick Tracts in every page.

Peachy

Jumping jack flash’s presentation may be a little tedious from a stylistical point of view, but the content is very solid.

JJF understands what’s at play and how it works. Good mind.

Agent 47

Yes I agree. He understands the workings of debt and credit better than most.

stagmal

skippy is way fuckin worse

everything he writes is some pseudo-intellectual schizo word salad about neoliberalism, the guy is a fucking incoherent lunatic

stagmal

reading over that thread reusa is right imo

housing will be back to growth by the end of the year or so i think inflation is cooked. no idea other than just a feeling

DictatorDavid

I’d expect reusa to be more right than anyone else over there!

Azrael

How would 30% interest rates work?

Peachy

I’m not sure how we get to 30% rates in the first place. I mean, for that to happen the US would need to jack rates to those level first.

and why, so they can wipe themselves out in order to give China a free pass to world domination?

that said, at least bcnich is cogent in terms of what 20%-30% rates would achieve:

As rates head to 20% and I think 30% 5,6,7 years out you work out how much you can borrow

obviously nobody can borrow jack at those rates.

this is the wet dream where all the blokes who have been sitting in cash finally “win”.

emusplatt

“this is the wet dream where all the blokes who have been sitting in cash finally “win”…”

goodo then…. but win what really?

having some return on saved/banked fiat within an economy that’s hyperinflating like a red giant prior to it’s collapse into a neutron star, seems a little pyrrhic to me

Azrael

Yep, pretty much. peachy was referring to a wet dream delusion tho. At 30% interest rates the country would be fucked.
I think BCnich is generally correct in his views – he just makes outlandish predictions which makes him seem like a mental case.

emusplatt

yeah gotcha I see peachy’s point better now..

and BCnich is correct in saying this debt engine is collapsing.

I’m just thinking 15% IR torches it ,not 30%

an opinion formed by remembering back to 20% days of fraser/howard and the carnage then….and that little episode of shitfuckery had resi RE mortgages capped@~13%-14%.

can’t see mortgage caps happening this time

…given that debts that can’t be paid won’t be paid, then defaults and foreclosures beckon.

Reus's Large MEMBER

and why, so they can wipe themselves out in order to give China a free pass to world domination?

Given the Biden regime’s propensity to do everything to destroy the US then I would expect that they would hike to those levels, especially seen as Biden is Winnie the Poo’s little biatch

Gouda

I used to be that guy sitting in cash and waiting for rate rises. Had it all figured out, and knew that if rates ever did go back up to 6% I was on track to be getting 10k a month interest and potentially an early retirement. But as the rates kept falling towards zero, it dawned on me that the EZFKA property ponzi would never die as governments would continue to throw stimulus to prop it up.

But something changes once you buy a place – you just stop caring or worrying as much, which meant less following of the financial and economic blogs. Maybe because there’s so much else to do, I’m not quite sure. I did happen to read Becker’s latest thread, and all the comments weren’t too dissimilar from what was being posted a decade ago and it was just a bit too sad. And as someone who was always interested in economics starting to not care, I suspected that most people in the homeowner demographic never gave a shit in the first place or just assumed the good times would keep rolling.

Stewie

“…it dawned on me that the EZFKA property ponzi would never die as governments would continue to throw stimulus to prop it up.”

It is a powerful epiphany when you have it. It is also the first rule of EZFKA – for the status quo to hold, housing must never be allowed to fail.

emusplatt

dead right….am holding very little cash…spending it on any hard asset I can use and a handful of etfs around the place

LSWCHP

Yeah. I bought a house in 2021 and retired in 2022. Right now I’m at the range with a couple of rifles, enjoying life. Except for the cunt next to me with a .300 Win MAG.

Anyway I don’t give a fuck about economics blogs any more either.

Freddy

most people in the homeowner demographic never gave a shit

Of course they care. Especially the idiots who have lived beyond their means funded with equity mate. There will be a reckoning, and it will come in the form of a pension crisis.

Superannation will go to the banks to pay off the mortgage. There will be a lot more people relying on the pension than was planned. Especially with the Branch Stacking Labor party letting non-taxpaying foreigners come into the country to suck on the welfare teat. The pension will be diluted to the point of worthlessness.

I can retire now at ~50 but I know the rules will change. They will have no choice but to tax the fuck out of retirees one way or another. You own a one-bedroom shoebox? That makes you a millionaire. No free healthcare for you.

Ramjet

You would need to be a banana republic protecting your currency from hitting rock bottom. I can’t see it happening in this economic zone anytime soon.

ThePensum

it wouldn’t lol

emusplatt

and lets square all that with iron ore going through $300+/tonne

ThePensum

lols rates at 30%. hahaha

DictatorDavid

20% rates is laughable. 30% makes me think he’s smoking the same crack pipe as migtronix haha

Peachy

who could have guessed?!

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emusplatt

it’s a gift…

Chuckmuscle

Such a great strike rate. The subs have to be the dumbest people on the planet. Get retarded advice from clowns like becker and DLS.
Think lethal still does good stuff occasionally.

Ramjet

It is not retarded. Just do the exact opposite. They have turned into the Pascoemeter that they despised.

It must be some sort of talent to be exactly wrong.

Gouda

Hehe, was thinking the exact same thing on the embee pascoemeter.

Chuckmuscle

I stand corrected, you’re right

Peachy

Yes, Robert, it has certainly been behaving like 18-20k is some sort of natural level.

to be honest, this surprised me to the downside. I thought that level might have been about 30k. But we have spent so long below that level that I accept that I was completely wrong on that.

if insiders had the ability to drive the price up to get money out, they would have done it earlier and harder. I think that this is where it wants to Bob at naturally.

Coming

Saving this dogshit take to embarrass you with at a future date

DictatorDavid

Oh this is juicy. You should put a wager on it? Peachy will keep you honest 😉

Agent 47

Speaking of grifts seems these two fags are hell-bent on gobbling up subsidies anyway they can.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/forrest-mulls-bid-to-buy-sun-cable-solar-farm-ditch-singapore-link-20230116-p5ccrl.html

Coming

I really don’t understand why they wanted to build a cable in the first place when they could have sold it for higher prices domestically

the cable was an absurd proposition and incredibly expensive to build, for no benefit

think cannon Brooke’s is probably a dumb fuckwit with a god complex but who knows why Forrest was involved

Ramjet

Economically and physically it never made sense. But if you are getting massive subsidies where you will still make a buck no matter what happens, then why wouldn’t you do it?

Ramjet

Of course it is not commercially viable. It would lose an insane amount of energy by the time it got to Singapore. It would have been next to useless for the Singaporeans. Who are the people stupid enough to fund this? Are they same people that funded FTX?

Stewie

They would be better off using giant battery ships and sailing them to and from Australia carrying the solar energy like tankers. A cable from here to Singapore would struggle to power a light bulb by the time it got there.

Ramjet

Exactly! Billions in subsidies just to power a light bulb.

emusplatt

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YH2mtqZzYwE

31c/kwh?
and that is cheaper than ICE by how much?

Chuckmuscle

Some interesting ideas here
https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1613924570725244928?s=20&t=O7SiIoQKvkquVYXJKqafgA

uunfortunately he doesn’t discuss Britt, sorry lads

Coming

https://twitter.com/electionlegal/status/1614863159721877505?s=46&t=mkhE2zgHV_9PAjXnVsVAQg

lmao can one of the boomers with image privileges please post these

Freddy

Use this site:
https://www.proxynova.com/tools/tweet-to-image/

and then post the image link…
comment image

Gouda

That’s how I have to do it. Putting a link to an image does get converted automatically, but it’s a pain to have to upload it elsewhere.

I’ve noticed Bing’s memes are uploaded onto the EZFKA site, and I can recall Peachy was talking about an “add image” button but I suspect this feature isn’t on older accounts which is why we’re unable to share images.

This is what my UI looks like:
comment image

Last edited 17 days ago by Gouda
Gruppenführer Mark

As I have found out, if I log out, the image button appears. So log out, add image, before you can post, it’ll ask for your login and the image goes through. Best workaround so far.

BING!

Earnings releases this week before/after open.

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BING!

Percentage of market cap and number of companies reporting coming weeks

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Coming

It’s a boomer privilege

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