A New Winter Offensive Imminent?

Part 2

Time for a wider lens to see what things are happening outside of the immediate SMO zone, and implications thereof. I welcome your comments / debate.

Geopolitics

Negotiations

As many of you will know, the first and only opportunity for a true peace settlement was in March 2022.  Following three rounds of negotiations in Belarus, the representatives from Ukraine and Russian Federation met in Turkey, there was rumoured to be a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, and things were looking up. 

And then Boris Johnson made a surprise visit in early April.  He had two simple messages to Kiev:

The first is that Putin is a war criminal; he should be pressured, not negotiated with. And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not. We can sign [an agreement] with you [Ukraine], but not with him. Anyway, he will screw everyone over,” is how one of Zelenskyy’s close associates summed up the essence of Johnson’s visit…

And that was effectively the end.  Three days after Johnson left Kyiv, Putin stated publicly that talks with Ukraine “had turned into a dead end”.

There were several other attempts at “negotiations”, mostly involving grain deal, ammonia supply deal, and other similar subjects. Ukraine has tried to sabotage these deals, according to Russia.  Russia has tried to sabotage these deals, according to Ukraine.  Without going down the rabbit hole of who is right and who is wrong, it seems odd to me that Putin and Lavrov (Russian Foreign Minister) are constantly being presented as “weak”, because they constantly state that they are “open for negotiations”.  On the other hand, Zelensky is “strong”, because he would not even start negotiations until Russia removes all of its troops from Ukraine and goes back to 1991 (with Crimea) or 2014 (without Crimea) borders – these demands change from time to time.

The last attempt at negotiations, from memory, was a deal around RAF withdrawal from Kherson.  There were various reports and theories why RAF were able to withdraw from the right bank without AFU shelling the effort, and why RAF withdrew in the first place.  General “Armageddon” Surovikin deemed defending the right bank as a waste of RAF’s most important resource – its soldiers – hence the decision to withdraw.  There were also reports that there was some sort of a “peace deal” being worked out between Ukraine and Russia, with the arbitrage by the USA (so called “Sullivan formula” – best link I could find), whereby a ceasefire or some other sort of de-escalation would be achieved prior to G20 summit in Bali.  AFU would in return stop shelling the nuke power plant in Zaporizhzhya, line of conflict would be frozen (Russia retaining its newly acquired land), and some other concessions by both parties.  Allegedly, RAF held up its end of the bargain.  Ukraine reneged.

Following this, Zelensky had a ball during his address to G20, rolling out a “10-point peace plan”.  For starters, he demanded that

Russia must agree to the territorial integrity of Ukraine, withdraw its troops from his country and pay compensation for damage caused by President Vladmir Putin’ invasion

all the while referring to the group as G19, excluding Russia, with whom he was trying to negotiate a peace deal.  This stellar effort did not go anywhere.

I would also add the latest initiative by Russia for a 36-hour ceasefire during Orthodox Christmas (7 January 2023).  It was first suggested by Russian Orthodox Church leader Patriarch Kirill, and later ordered by Putin.  Naturally, Ukrainians called this a ploy for Russians to regroup, as they were losing.  They also claimed that it was “a cynical trap and an element of propaganda”.  Germany, among other Western countries, deemed the offer unauthentic, and the White House called it a “cynical ploy”.

President Biden said Thursday that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s call for a temporary, Christmas ceasefire is an effort to “find some oxygen,” dismissing that the Kremlin is serious about finding an off ramp for its assault against Ukraine.  

The president said he was “reluctant to respond to anything Putin says,” but characterized the Kremlin as cynically attacking civilians over the December holidays.”

Minsk Agreements

As a reminder, Minsk Agreements were designed to regulate conflict in Donbass area of Ukraine (effectively, a civil war) that started after a 2014 coup against the then-President of Ukraine Yanukovich.  I will not go into detail of the coup, other than its result – Crimea voted to become a part of Russian Federation, pro-Russian supporters were burned alive in Odessa, pro-Nazi elements entered Ukrainian government, and Donbass and Lugansk started an uprising which morphed into a full-blown civil war that smouldered for 8 years.

In recent revelations, Angela Merkel, and then Francois Hollande, who were mediators of the Minsk Agreements in the so-called Normandy Format, spelled out the real reason for the agreements: to allow Ukraine to prepare for future war with Russia.

Putin, of course, was not amused, as he believed he was negotiating in good faith. 

I thought the other participants of this agreement were at least honest, but no, it turns out they were also lying to us and only wanted to pump Ukraine with weapons and get it prepared for a military conflict,” Putin said. “Apparently, we got our bearings too late, to be honest. Maybe we should have started all this [the military operation] earlier, but we just hoped that we would be able to solve it within the framework of the Minsk agreements.

With this latest revelation, Putin could very well be done negotiating with the West.  

Aid to Ukraine

So far, Ukraine has received ~$95B in foreign aid through 3 October 2022, most of it coming from the USA.  Military aid was just shy of $50B, and that was before the latest $47B package unveiled as a result of Zelensky’s visit to the USA, culminating in his speech before Congress. 

A lot of the military aid supplied to date has been destroyed during the last 11 months of fighting.  Some has been allegedly sold on the black market to various buyers in Europe (Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Netherlands so far) and Africa (Lake Chad Basin region).  Keep in mind that NATO has been supplying what they call “defensive” weapons, as Russia pretty much said earlier that “offensive” weapons could be interpreted as NATO’s direct involvement in conflict and will bring consequences.  What those consequences may be is anyone’s guess, but this is a full spectrum from “do nothing” to “strategic nukes”. 

With AFU taking heavy losses in Soledar (which fell a couple of days ago, although Zelensky is in denial) and Bakhmut (which is going to fall in a matter of days, I believe), any potential AFU offensive is looking very shaky.  So, the collective West, over the last couple of weeks, has announced a massive list of heavier armaments that will be transferred to AFU.  These include: French AMX-10, German Marder APC, and American Bradleys, M113 APCs, M109 Paladin howitzers, 105mm towed howitzers, Humvees and MRAPs.  Plus a smorgasbord of other goodies, ~$3B all up.  And, yes, the Patriot missile battery or two.  And earlier Poland had agreed to give up to 14 of its Leopard tanks to the AFU. Wunderwaffe.  UK has also joined the fray and committed to sending 12 Challenger tanks.

I have also seen reports where the AFU are complaining about the American weapons – these were designed to operate in the desert (Humvees, MRAPs) and are seizing in Ukrainian winter.  But by far the biggest problem for the AFU is a sort of mishmash makeup of its artillery, wheel and track equipment, manufactured in various countries.  This presents a real problem with servicing and repair when the need arises – and it certainly will arise.  It is almost a given that any repairs must be done in other countries, which presents logistics problems.

On the humanitarian front, things are looking even more dire.  To function, according to Zelensky, the country needs $7B per month, or $84B per year to pay teachers, pensioners, maintain infrastructure and the like.  Given that Ukraine’s GDP was ~$200B per year prior to the SMO, and its economy contracted by up to 70% due to destruction of agriculture, manufacturing and power generation, it is safe to say that the burden of keeping Ukraine minimally viable will rest on the USA and the EU in the foreseeable future.

I have seen discussions on whether this aid (both military and humanitarian) was a gift, or a loan (similar to Lend Lease program of WWII).  I seem to recall that bulk of the aid was, indeed, in the form of loans, but I would bet that it will turn out to be a gift – USA and EU countries printed dollars and Euros out of thin air and given these to the Ukraine, a country that has been in an economic and demographic decline over last 30 years and has suffered a collapse in the last 11 months.  There is a very slim chance that these loans would ever be repaid.  

There is also another EU refugee crisis that is hitting Europe hard.  As of July 2022, it is estimated that 5.2M refugees have left Ukraine for other countries.  1.4M of them went to Russia, the rest elsewhere, with Europe bearing the brunt of this movement.  In roughly the same timeframe, only 71K Ukrainians came to the US (with some making it across the US-Mexico border).  So the EU countries, in addition to providing massive amounts of aid, will be feeding, housing and clothing refugees for some years to come.

Publications

There have been a number of opinion pieces written over the last couple of months on the current situation.  I will give you a couple of those:

A very good piece by Jim Rickards. There is not a lot of here that I disagree with, especially the opening statement:

Don’t believe the incessant U.S. government and media propaganda about Ukraine. Ukraine is not winning the war; they are losing badly

Rickards makes a strong argument that the only winner so far has been the military-industrial complex (MIC), mainly in the US.

One point I disagree with him on is a potential outcome of the use of tactical nukes. Once that Kraken is unleashed, strategic missiles will fly, and then it’s lights out for the northern hemisphere at the very least. I think we will stop well short of this scenario, and I will give you my reasons why further down this post.

Next, an opinion piece by Condoleezza Rice (ex-Secretary of State) and Robert M. Gates (ex-Secretary of Defence).

If we skip over platitudes about heroic AFU, the article paints a bleak but accurate picture of the Ukraine’s economy

Meanwhile, although Ukraine’s response to the invasion has been heroic and its military has performed brilliantly, the country’s economy is in a shambles, millions of its people have fled, its infrastructure is being destroyed, and much of its mineral wealth, industrial capacity and considerable agricultural land are under Russian control. Ukraine’s military capability and economy are now dependent almost entirely on lifelines from the West — primarily, the United States. Absent another major Ukrainian breakthrough and success against Russian forces, Western pressures on Ukraine to negotiate a cease-fire will grow as months of military stalemate pass. Under current circumstances, any negotiated cease-fire would leave Russian forces in a strong position to resume their invasion whenever they are ready. That is unacceptable

The recipe to defeat Russia is to “help Ukraine push back the invader now”, which translates into more modern weapons and immediate support for the 21st century’s Winston Churchill, aka Volodymyr Zelensky.  More weapons = more orders for MIC to replace.

There have been multiple articles written about the destination of vast funds that were given to the Ukraine by the USA.  EU countries also contributed, of course, but n much smaller scale.  Bulk of these funds never leave the USA, and are spent on MIC.  Only a small portion of funds actually makes it to the Ukraine, as explained by the fact checkers.

Finally, an interview (machine-translated, the best I could find) with the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev.

The West has mastered the zombification of people through mass propaganda, and now seeks to use cognitive weapons, influencing each person point-by-point with the help of information technologies and methods of neuropsychology. It inculcates neoliberal and other values, some of which are inherently directly opposed to human nature. They act consciously and do not hide in their circle that the LGBT agenda is a tool for gradually reducing the number of” extra people “who do not fit into the framework of the notorious “golden billion”. Just yesterday, they advertised GMOs without caring about the health consequences of such products, and today they are calling on women not to have children in order to fight climate change. Overseas science suggests evaluating people by the amount of carbon they leave behind. They measure and count humanity in the same way that Nazi scientists once measured skulls in search of criteria for separating “higher” and “lower races”.

 There is an existential struggle in progress.  It is West vs. East.  Russia – Ukraine war is the frontline.  Neither side will give up.  The USA, with its EU partners, plus UK, AU, NZ, Japan, South Korea cannot afford to appear any weaker than they were immediately after Afghanistan withdrawal.  For Putin, he summed it up during one his earlier interviews:

…if someone decides to annihilate Russia, we have the legal right to respond. Yes, it will be a catastrophe for humanity and for the world. But I’m a citizen of Russia and its head of state. Why do we need a world without Russia in it?

Over last 30 years, since the fall of USSR, the USA forgot the art of diplomacy and negotiation.  It has become a bully, and the only tactic they seem to employ is to intimidate, threaten, and double down.  Well, there are only a couple more opportunities to double down before we arrive to the brink of nuclear war.  There will not be a winner, at least in the northern hemisphere, but Russia may come out in a better shape due its size, low population density east of the Urals, and modernised delivery systems that are more difficult to intercept than a normal ICBM.

My Outlook

And here we come to the speculation part.  AFU, it is estimated, have lost between 12K and 25K in Soledar. It is suffering same horrific losses in Bakhmut.  It is running out of men, materiel and delivery systems, which is the reason for all of the recent announcements of new weapons by the West (see above).  The highly anticipated winter offensive by the AFU is looking very improbable, because the political interests of “stoic Ukrainian soldiers” defending Soledar and Bakhmut from “hordes of Russian occupants” took precedence over preservation of men – Intel Slava Z has been reporting on numerous times Zaluzhnyj pleaded with Zelensky to withdraw troops from those two towns, but Zelensky refused as it could have jeopardised the amount of aid being sent. There have also been reports that the AFU had mounted three couter-offensives to try to take Soledar back, all failed.

So, unlike RAF in Kharkov and Kherson earlier in this conflict, AFU stayed put and lost a lot of men. One can get all sorts of new toys that go “kaboom” and spread death and destruction.  Problem is, you have to have someone to push the button for the toy to go “kaboom”.  For historical parallels of the consequences of political decisions over military needs, see Battle of Stalingrad 1942 – 1943. 

RAF are likely to mount their winter offensive in the next few days.  The likely goals will be 1. To liberate Donetsk republic and 2. Advance from Kherson towards Odessa and Transinistria, thus controlling the entire Black sea shore.  AFU are also likely to mount their own counteroffensive to try and take Soledar back, even if this means throwing more and more troops into a meatgrinder for political gain. 

There is also a very large combined Belorussian/RAF force in Belarus right now.  There is a lot of speculation, whether Russia will attack Kiev again, or whether Poland, that has been actively growing its military, will attack Belarus or try to enter western Ukraine as a “peacekeeping” force, thus annexing areas that used to be Poland (Lviv, etc.).  Given Poland’s recent actions on the world stage, I would not put it past them to enter western Ukraine.  I do not believe that they will attack Belarus, because in this case Article 5 of NATO will be null and void. Or maybe Poland is just building up its forces so they can attack Germany and collect $1.4T of reparations for its losses in WWII, who knows?

If and when RAF secures Donetsk and Odessa, they might consider advancing up to Dnepr River and take the entire left bank (eastern) part of the country, but no more.  At the very least, I think the RAF will also attempt to take Kharkov.  By then, there will be peace talks.  I do not believe that the world will be facing the use of even tactical nukes.  

The resolve of the West to support Ukraine indefinitely is starting to soften.  The populace have lost any interest in Ukraine a few months ago.  Politicians are still making loud noises and strong statements, but even they are starting to rethink whether it is worth their while to continue with Zelensky.  In the USA, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy got elected after 15 rounds and multiple concessions, one of which was to cut aid to Ukraine.  In Europe, they have run out of stuff to give, and are in the middle of a serious economic downturn (recession? Depression?)

And then here comes Ukraine.  Would you continue to help, if you have robbed your own people (not that EU politicians care, but the electorate might start paying attention), and your help is not appreciated?

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba has urged Kiev’s “partners” to continue funnelling military aid into the country, claiming that “no one has done enough” to help, yet.

There is also a possibility for the AFU to mount its own winter offensive.  They still have reserves both in men and equipment, which have been amassed, as it has been reported, in at least two sections of the front: 1. near Zaporizhzhia, to enable the AFU to advance towards Melitopol and Mariupol, thus cutting off the land bridge to Crimea; and 2. at Ugledar, to drive towards Donetsk and crush the capital of one of the separatist republics.  Ther is also a very real possibility that Zelensky will continue to try to take Soledar back, to maintain morale in the AFU and among the civilians – I cannot find any other reason in denial that the town is lost.

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stagmal

where is the evidence it’s going to happen man. it could but it is pure speculation, really nobody knows anything in a war as unpredictable as this. i agree it seems likely that therer will be some attempted offensive action by RF but the question is timing and that’s impossible to predict. some people are saying if it happens it won’t be until summer which will be a serious bore.

eitherway something exciting needs to happen and quickly.

Welcome to SUNY BANK

It is winter in Hong Kong, and they are sending their ‘best’ to the world’s biggest HK refugee camp, Brisbane.

That’s offensive enough.

THEY GOT STEVEO

JUST A SMALL PSA someone posted about the fat women in Brisbane causing all the local men to see a gnome from SEA as pretty just because they aren’t fat like all the local chix and he was deadset right! There’s a hooka in Brissy whos over 90 kilo and chargest 650 an hour

>certainly not a white one under 90Kg
The fat ones usually carry a pretty hefty price tag themselves. Pun intended.
This one for instance wants $650 for an hour.
scarlet blue dot come dot au slash yada yada lorinska

Who said you weren’t the Smart State?

Coming

Come on man I just looked her up and you’re gay if you wouldn’t

650 is pretty steep but that’s the premium that white women command

Brisbane Olympics will be BOSS

Disgusting pigs in Brisbane she is a sympton of Brisbans’ sick disease. What a shithole Brisbane is a twisted mess of roads, cars stuck in traffic, cranes, and fat people pretending to be kings because their house is ‘worth 500,000 mate’

she can come and stay at my place in sydney if she wants

by the way, don’t you think

“Fry the rice, pay the price”

would be an improvement

Australia - the Asian Country

FROI THE ROICE mate PAY THE PROICE? Not with moi

THOI BROIDE I wont!

Azrael

Chinese people congregate in Sunny bank. I’m trying to work out why they wont live in Greenslopes.

Australia - the Asian Country

But the Hong Kong don’t think they’re Choineez matey doncha know? Their SPESHAL!

Azrael

This is true. Hong Kangers are Cantdongnese, which means they are fancy asians.

GITMO FOR KEANE

Fancy how? Being A grade assholes and sociopathics?

GITMO FOR KEANE

#AusLaw is going bananas right now about Patrick Keane the Supreme Court judge will be in shithole Hong Kong’s court of appeal. Summarising the #AusLaw on the topic ‘Dear Canberra see that retired Commonwealth judge? Please rendition!”

bcbich

Isn’t Patrick Keane from Brisbane?

>Moves to ‘shithole’ Hong Kong

>From New shithole Hong Kong ie Brisbane

What’s teh big deal?

Jammy

800,000 salary

Jam

Ka ching

Aussie Soy Boy

I would be ghey if they all looked like that land whale

Coming

mate, you are gay

you should be glad. its a much better way to live

Australia - the Asian Country

OI SED, THOI BROIDE Mate! Listen!

Jammy

What about a mid-2010s Salma Heyak?

Would you?

The Last of the Moorookans

They have to go back to Sunnybank and buy more houses.

They should live 50 to a house at least or they’re just not Hong Kongese.

Sunnybank Sam

What I remember as cheenese food growing up as a young kid in Hong Kong
>turtle/shark fin soup
>fried chicken feet
>pig uterus noodles
>fried rice with pork knuckle gristle
>unidentifed fish balls on a stick
>boiled dog meat
>one time, monkey brains
Aussies have no idea how bad it really is. No one in china knows what the fuck beef and broccoli is or sweet and sour pork. cheenese food is disgusting. Literally the worst parts to eat of any animal. Makes sense because chinks are the race of humans closest to animals. They make disgusting noises when they eat, slurp everything, men in the streets lift their fucking wife beaters over their sweaty stomachs while laughing and chewing with their mouths full of food. Like what kind of idiot decided 2 sticks is the most practical way to eat grains of fucking rice. Starving Nigerians who eat grass have a better diet than the average cheenese.

Jammy

But filthy Yum Cha and dog eared dragon dance costumes is the most exciting thing in Brisbane since Expo, other than the footy. Get with the culture mate!

Australia - the Asian Country

Go for the Thai Bride mate, I am. My bug eating bugwoman will be better than your bug eating bugwoman.

reuse

send their best? every city has nice and bad parts. i get that. but even wanchai and kennedy town looks old tired dilapidated and dirty. mid levels and central is ok but i can walk out of it in 15 minutes. its that tiny. even the nice parts of hong kong doesn’t seem that impressive. and there’s so few nice parts. majority is just run down apartment buildings that no one bothered to clean since the cretaceous period. hong kong fux are the dirtiest scummiest south east asian trash in all of asia so why not just embrace the fact that we accepted them as refugees and they are here to stay and act all chimp like and ‘oh look at my new shoes and car!’ whatcha gonna do about it? build a wall around all of sunnybank and keep them in?

Jammy

Hey as someone from New HK (Brisbane), I take offence at this comment! HK people are pretty much the finest and nicest SEA jungle monkeys you will ever meet.

HK Fooey

Everybody around the world exposed to them seems to hate on HK chinks. HK chinks are the ginners of Asia. Have you been to a chinese airport or HK mall? There’s no lines, just a bunch of ginner Asians pushing to the front of security like their crowding into a bus in their rural cum white build kind of okay but they haven’t even bothered cleaning it shithole. If you go to Hong Kong and talk to somebody in Mandarin, they’ll pretend they don’t understand, unless you tell them your Taiwanese and they hate other HK chinks even more, and they pretend that they are some kind of important people because the whites turned their dump into a port city of some significance. Fukk HK chinks and Fukk that shit hole HK. But for goondess sakes, let’s import at least 1 million of them this year.

Sunnybank Sam

Make it 2

THEY GOT STEVEO

There’s a new Winter Offensive against the greatest Aussie who ever lived STEVE IRWIN MATE

https://teddit.net/r/brisbane/comments/10cd1uj/this_is_what_passes_as_17_double_cheese_burger_at/j4gq3xx/#c

IT BRINGS TEARS TO THE EYES I TELL YOU

emusplatt

“Unfortunately, I don’t have a top secret memo…..”

don’t stress just do what any lamestream dogcvnt would do and make 1 up …hell make up a dozen!
🤌

Last edited 15 days ago by emusplatt
The Last of the Moorookans

Is Straya 57% hiwute? Seems to be a meem going round the 4plebs but its because on census data there is category ‘Oceanian’. 57% say European Australian but there is about 15%? WHO ARE European Australian but say they are Oceanian Australian so hiwutes are still 75%?

Not bad not bad because this is the Straya we can sell and bring in all the jungle monkeys from HK and make em buy property.

Jam

You are a bore.

But last of the moorookans that’s effin hilarious well done

bcbich

Looking outside the window it’s about 50% white in the Sydney CBD.

Australia IS an Asian country. Apparently hey call them in the famous words of the Singapore PM the ‘Brown Trash of Oceania’

stagmal

i am seeing reports now in the abc that the uk’s decision to send a few challenger tanks is going to open the door to a flood of “heavy” MBTs fromt he west into ukraine. i don’t necessarily think it’s copium: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-16/western-made-heavy-tanks-ukraine-war/101858128

genuinely think that this could spell the beginning of shipments of quite a few heavy mbt’s to ukraine, but i don’t know exactly how many is ‘quite a few’ and how decisive they will be. but i think the imminent need for ratcheting up the RF’s manpower/war economy or initating some decisive offensive is possibly in order. claims like this can’t be ignored imo.

Welcome to SUNY BANK

Madness as they will hit them all at their staging point – and from the Caspian if they have too.

Or just a Kornet or two (AT-14) on teh ground. Search online for it. It’s an impressive little thing.

stagmal

they don’t have the capacity to destroy every piece of equipment that enters ukraine. if they did this war would be over by now

stagmal

i disagree nato is very good at hiding the shit and smuggling it in.

Captain Chang

But they lost an entire barracks of foreign fighters a few months ago.

Tanks are bigger than people. They have eyes everywhere, no?

Be good goy, send more people to die in this good fite. Please, dont hesitate. Do right thing wite man. Keep fiting!

Captain Chang

They did if they wanted to. They changed the course of history in 2015 when they struck Isis with rockets from just 3-4 sub 500 ton boats a long distance away in the Caspian Sea, and went into Syria such that the West went all hands off and didnt do to Syria what they had done elsewhere. 2015 was the turning point. But we should send a squadron of our tanks, would work out good. Whose going first, your sons?

Be good goy, send more people to die in West. Please, dont hesitate. Do right thing wite man.

emusplatt

certainly sorted the black market oil convoys…poofff
and maybe erdogans nephew got necked …can’t remember

and the missiles flew through turkish airspace without a murmur

Last edited 16 days ago by emusplatt
Welcome to SUNY BANK

One point I disagree with him on is a potential outcome of the use of tactical nukes.

So your saying that DC is prepared to be getting the nuuked by the country with the most nuuks for the sake of saving a corrupt european country?

No, won’t happen.

Coming

comment image

Agent 47

Also known as Uber

Australia - the Asian Country

Nah mate MoicroSoft tech supports! I dont understan why Willy G8s named his company after his dick tho, do ya know whoy?

Azrael

Coming! stop posting boomer memes!

Azrael

comment image

LSWCHP

That’s me on the right. Coincidentally, I just bought a new gun.

Azrael

Ha ha! that’s totally me as well, right down to the dried shit stains on fur.
What fyre- arm did you get?

LSWCHP

A Steyr air pistol for cheap practise.

There’s been a total lack of supply of propellant powder for reloading handgun ammo in Australia for about 18 months now, so I decided an air gun would help stretch out my existing supplies of components and not cost too much. My club has an indoor air pistol range with lighting, so it also means I can practise comfortably in inclement weather (which Canberra has a lot of) and at night in winter.

Coming

If you get a terminal disease, will you go out in a blaze of glory ?

since you already live in Canberra

do the needful

Agent 47

Great job on the Twitter again

20230117_095822.jpg
LostSocialist

Very good article. I largely agree with your conclusions. I am unsure whether Russia will be making a big push or just continue grinding the Ukrainians until they collapse and then sweep through the country.
The big issue for the russians is that that if they leave any sizable rump Ukrainian state NATO will rearm it and use it to attack Russia a second time. If anything a Polish seizure of western Ukrainian lands that used to be Polish could be good for Russia as it would remove alot of the crazy nazi parts of Ukraine and create large tensions in the EU and NATO.
Finally as always DLS at MB has been horrifically wrong about Ukraine as he is on just about all geopolitical issues. It is just about like his is regurgitating NATO talking points and has a complete inability to analyse anything and think for himself.

Ramjet

I agree. It is the Julian Assange quote “it is not a successful war, but a long war being the objective”. Some people ie Military Industrial Complex and Oligarchs both sides of the Atlantic are making heaps of money from this. NAO/US will keep this war going. Even if the Donbass is under Russian control, the US will keep this going. The only limit will be the number of working class Ukrainians between 18 and 64.

As for DLS, didn’t he work for The Diplomat? I guess past tense is the key here. Why would anyone keep reading things from someone who is always wrong? The NATO talking points have become so ridiculous, anyone with some common sense would question them. So I guess that rules out DLS then.

Australia - the Asian Country

Yeah nah mates gonna get myself one of them Thai brides and bring her over and buy an apartment high up in the beautiful Brisbane CBD. We will have HAPA kids, what could go wrong? And Im still seeing offers over – for crap in Brisbane but hey that’s how our city works. Beautiful one day flooded humid swamps the next. Prices seem to be high with high expectations, lots of — was 4 metres under in 2011 but would make a great addition to your portfolio properties. If you weren’t there in 2011 you might think its a good deal.
There is a big difference between a modern sound house that is asbestos free and on a good block in a reasonable non-flood area, and a 65 + year old house that has been a rental for twenty years and in true oz landlord style has never had anything replaced same old shower, plate glass, 35 yr stove and floors that are glued to the wood with asbestos glue. Once the place reaches a point where renting it offers tenants the opportunity to sue for endangerment and failure to comply with OHS – it then goes up for sale for the absolute max price.
Consider These older non or bit renovated houses have one or many of these defects
Most roofs are way on the way out
Insurance even near a flood area is a critical cost – I’ve seen 10k for ave house
As health and safety rules tighten, asbestos walled houses (most of 60, 50, 70 Brisbane) may not be able to be rented in the future without an inspection.
In the event of a fire the cost to demo can be are sky high because of the extra toxic removal work required.
TPS PVC wiring only has a life of 30 years – yes it can last longer when not exposed to light but that’s not how the insurance looks at things or the Court, and older switchboards will need upgrading before the power can be restored or changed if your unlucky.
Water cylinders and water proof membranes break down over time making modernising more difficult due to water rot and seepage.
As one person stated above reno costs of 5K sq Metre now, and this may be an underestimate with the new regulations and OHS requirements and hidden or complex defects like rafter sag with roofing and flooring defects a major trap.-
Air cons and kitchen appliances over ten-fifteen years old will need immediate replacing — 5 to 10 K maybe
Most of the properties I have seen for sale in the last month want 500K or a lil less and are barely habitable and also would not meet healthy homes min standards. If prices are dropping they are moving very slowly because the crap is still selling.
I have seen maybe two value for money houses in the last three months.
But once I have HAPAS it wont matter because I will be the ruling class and we will fool everyone because asians are smart, doncha know?

No1

Are you here to ruin this website, or do you just have some variety of mental disease?

No1

Upon closer inspection, I see not the entire post is a rant about Hapas, so you may be improving.

Azrael

There’s some good truths about house condition in the post. I sold a house mid last year and it needed knocking down – it was rooted. Still got crazy money for it tho.

kickacity.wordpress.com/

no he/she/it’s gotta point. literally brisbane has been like being in bankgok or hk for a long time now, full of hapas from washouts who returned to shithole that was once a upon a time a good city back around pre 95, and there is lots of acknowledges around the web of it. i think once enough boomers die off the real estate problem will drive tensions up. the majority of natuve born people brisbane already support crushing the real estate cartels and expropriating foreign owned property I would assume the situation is about the same in shytney. this is what the web is saying (not my mate!) it will be this, or people just getting drunk and falling asleep after eating takeway from brisbane river caught three eyes fish. sounds like you don’t want it discussed it’s because you have a number of ips or are a retarded realtors?

‘we are heading for another depression to! when those people get their wish and get to david lynch foreign owners and traitorous realtors they will be drunk on rev lucia nary red stuff lust and will support campaigns against all other enemies of the rev lucia and the profligate materialists who invites those parasites in the first place.’

Jam

Yeah pretty spot on. Especially regarding the roofing comment and Brisbane houses. . Also everything needs to be certified as a system these days not the product the full system as installed . The days of bodgy Reno’s are over. Align this with high cost low skill installers fun times fer sure.

Coming

Stagmal:

what was the name of that troll on lookism.net towards the end?

Might be the same guy here or just a copycat

stagmal

i’m not sure, i doubt it’d be him though this place is too obscure for a coincednce that large. this guy is getting annoying af though, pretty sure it’s the same guy as whoever made these videos:

https://youtu.be/4hcwt4PKjkQ

most arcane schizo content

Last edited 16 days ago by stagmal
Coming

im pretty sure its the same guy or a copycat

he was constantly changing his username, and was hapa-focussed

Zoomer

Could be the infamous Spencer Tenda or one of the hipster yuppy polo wearing GPS types as they tend to marry the girls school types who are white, don’t think it’s some old Yankee who lost his marbles.

stagmal

billy jack isnt american hes just pretending to be, its a persona/character

Jammy

Apparently some of the Redditors have met him IRL so I’m not so sure as there are a lot of these old beachcomber American types in Brisbane still here after some decades. His podcast on Brisbane is spot on ‘Origin of the Species’ (Suburb Reviewed) it’s called Brisbane Town or Brisbane City?

NAFO

You also forgot to mention the Budapest Memorandum you dumb vatnik cunt. Fuck you and fuck Putin and fuck ruZZia. Slava Ukraini! We will push all the murdering rapist orcs out of our country.

LostSocialist

While I assume you are a B grade troll, or perhaps DLS during one of his less verbose moments, here is a good article by retired Swiss Jacques Baud that covers the Budapest memorandum. It also has some good background information on some of the actions that caused the war to begin.

Peachy

here is a good article by retired Swiss Jacques Baud that covers the Budapest memorandum

Where dat article?

Stewie

And interesting read beyond just the memorandum.

We have only exploited existing dynamics and exploited Ukraine to satisfy an old dream: to try to bring down Russia. Chrystia Freeland’s, Antony Blinken’s, Victoria Nuland’s and Olaf Scholz’s grandfathers had that dream; we realized it.

Chrystia Freeland – Grandfather a Nazi.
Antony Blinken – Grandparents Jewish, Ashkenazi
Victoria Nuland -Grandparents Jewish, Ashkenazi
Olaf Scholz – Grandfather a Nazi.

What is nazism? Nazism is an imitation of Judaism; Nazism adopted the principles and ideas of Judaism with which to destroy Judaism and the Jews.

Rabbi Harry Waton

So it isn’t the slightest bit surprising that their descendants all share a similar value preferences, albeit with a slight change of focus, from Nationalist to Globalist.

Essentially all other traits of both dogmatic groups are the same – especially the view that their cultural view, be it National or Global, becomes the unrivaled view or narrative.

Soviet Russia and Nazi Germany are the same in essence and historic tendency. …Now, the communists and the fascists will emphatically deny this; they will insist that, even economically and politically, Soviet Russia and Nazi Germany are absolutely different from each other. Well, let them deny, but we know the truth and the facts.

Rabbi Harry Waton

As the good Rabbi says, who was alive and earnestly trying to make sense of the world writes, essentially in those days Germany and Russia were mirror images of each other except one had Jewish Socialism with global aspirations, while the other had German Socialism with their own aspirations (the book is an interesting read and viewpoint)

So finally we get back to the original quote. Just why is it ‘their’ dream? Why do they have it? Why do they want to destroy Russia?

This was a dream that stretched back to these people’s grandparents – why did they have it. Well it stretched back to their grandparents, who intern stretched back to their parents, going all the way back to the land of the Kazars Empire, that was only brought to an end, when the Rus, a Slavic people of the north, tired of having their people made slaves united and swept down from the north and destroyed their oppressors.

Consequently the Democrats and the current leaders of the Ukraine have ALWAYS been at war with the Rus.

Last edited 15 days ago by Stewie
LostSocialist

Thanks that is the one I forgot to link.

NAFO

Yep random vatnik cunts post random links. Nice one. You keep sucking putins little dick like a biatch who knows nothing about Ukraine…

LostSocialist

I find it interesting that the the supporters of the Ukrainian/NATO narrative in the war are by an large extremely immature and childish. It appears that they have been brainwashed to scream and shout at anything they perceive to be wrongthink. It reminds me of the way many democrats in the US behaved when Trump was in power or the angry lunatics supporting abuse against women under the banner of trans rights.

Coming

Same thing during Iraq wars for those old enough to remember

but the teams have switched now it’s conservatives who are anti war and reasonable/nuanced , while the “progressives” are the NPCs

HD

!

FlegIGVaEAApgjJ.jpg
Stewie

Good summation of the state of play MG, and reasonable speculations as to where it might end.

I was of the opinion that Russia would gain the territory that it seeks claim, and then would negotiate a truce along some mutually tolerable division. I no longer believe that is the case.

You mention:

I seem to recall that bulk of the aid was, indeed, in the form of loans, but I would bet that it will turn out to be a gift

I doubt it, the goal is to ensare the Ukraine and bind it to the West. All the ‘loans’ come attached with the usual Banksters terms and conditions – basically the sale and privatisation of all Govt Assets, and opening the Ukraine up to “Foreign Investment” at the nadir of the Ukraine bombed out economic existence, when its assets are at all time lows.

The reality to the two options in terms of aid is either, loan or write off. There will be no gift.

Russia is unable to allow Ukraine to exist in its current form. If it merely seeks to capture and hold the Russian speaking territory it was originally after, then it will leave a rump state that US and the Bankers who rule it from Israel, will ensure the conflict in the Ukraine will never end. They will simply continue to funnel weapons and aid to their side for as long as it takes, or until the Ukraine simply runs out of men.

There will be no negotiations, because their is no upper price that the Globalists will put on their determination to ensure the endurance of their thousand year Reich Hegemon. Destroy one of the last two global strategic rivals to its toxic globalist ideologies, is worth any price.

Russia must completely encircle the Ukraine from the North, along the Polish and Slovak borders, while capturing the Southern Coastline. It needs to ensure that supplying and re-supplying the Ukraine by land becomes infeasible.

Then they will need to squeeze the life out of the UAF and destroy all the militias, and the toxic foreign elite (I imagine most will voluntarily flee to Israel), partition the country into Latin and Orthodox, and run the Western Latin half as a proxy state, while absorbing the Eastern Orthodox half into itself. Over time it will matter less what happens to the western rump of what will remain the Ukraine.

Anything other than this will ensure that this War will be fought for years to come, at imho, much, much greater risk of the use of Nuclear weapons.

Last edited 16 days ago by Stewie
The90kwbeast

Agreed with a twist – defeat will be labelled as victory, announced when Ukraine is scraping the bottom of the barrel for 18-50 year old men, and then the US and NATO will negotiate.

Perhaps the real objective is not the destruction of Russia which is probably impossible but just the notable weakening of it’s armed forces?

Who can out proxy the other in other words…

The90kwbeast

Very difficult to roll a carrier group into or near the black sea though I would think? That’s easy to do near Taiwan…

The90kwbeast

That’s unproven though isn’t it? And hypersonic right you mean

And presumably some smart people are working on defenses for that

Because if hypersonic missles are carrier killers and assuming both sides have them, no one is sailing anywhere anymore in the next global war

LostSocialist

If Poland retakes its historical provinces in Ukraine then it will have a very good incentive to stop allowing weapons to get through to Ukraine as there are still plenty of crazy Ukrainians that like to celebrate their massacre of Poles in WWII.
As a bonus it will really piss the Germans off as Poland also received quite a bit of German territory after WWII and I don’t think they will be giving that back. Maybe the Germans will finally realise that being a US colony isn’t that great after all.

No1

I don’t understand the meme about Poland invading Western Ukraine, Poland is fanatically pro-NATO and US, they’re not going to disrupt the “rules-based international order” by trying to take Lvov, which would also be highly beneficial to Russia.

Ramjet

There is a YouTube channel called History Matters and it seems every second or third video is about odd country borders.

It is a great channel for any history buffs.

There are so many odd borders in Europe that there is a potential for conflict for years to come. We just haven’t had much conflict until recently due to somewhat good economic times.

Jam

Ta. I recommend fall of ancient civilizations.

No1

Western Ukrainians are the most nationalistic in the country. They aren’t similar to Poles. If taken over by Poland, they would fight just as hard as they do against Russia. There are very few Poles left in Ukraine, so there won’t be anyone to help the Poles either. At least Russia has ethnic Russians to aid their invasion.

The only way Poland starts doing things like this is if the current world order collapses and it’s a free-for-all where countries can take over whatever territory they feel like with no repercussions.

If Sportsbet ever adds wars, this would be 50:1 or so.

LostSocialist

Although the source is pretty suspect, it appears Duda was warmly greeted when he visited Lviv recently. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/01/11/7384463/
I agree though that Ukrainians were horrendous to the Poles in WWII so it would appear very strange that Poland would want to take a hunk of Ukraine as it could lead to civil war there.

LostSocialist

It appears Orban has been doing a little signalling around getting a little bit of Ukraine for Hungry as well. https://theconversation.com/viktor-orbans-controversial-greater-hungary-scarf-explained-195581

Ramjet

+1. Great comment. This is a banker war like most wars. People focus on BlackRock having prime position to rebuild Ukraine, but let’s not forget Big Ag and the Cargills ownership of land and grain silos.

Stewie

One way to view the war in the Ukraine, given the rumoured devestation to Urkranian men and vast number of female refugees, is as a depopulation program. No doubt should the Ukraine ‘win’ it will have its borders thrown open to immigration – especially from Africa and the Middle East.

Then the Ukraine will be populated by a large, ethnically and culturally unbound population with no roots to the area – cattle to be grazed and farmed.

Azrael

Six Year Old Girl Dies Suddenly.
Heart Attacks Are Totally Normal For Six Year Olds.
https://metro.co.uk/2023/01/16/schoolgirl-6-died-suddenly-hours-after-dad-tucked-her-into-bed-18110604/

Coming

How do you know either of these two were vaxxed ?

No1

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/immigration-could-surge-to-300-000-in-2022-23-20230116-p5ccus

Chalmers has altered the immigration deal,* pray he does not alter it further.

*From 160K to 195K to 235K to 300K

I actually think this is a good thing because they’re going to jack up those numbers until the system breaks, and it’s obvious for all to see, rather than run a more sustainable but still socially corrosive immigration program that the country has any chance of handling without mass homelessness.

Azrael

Eighteen Year Old Vaxxed Cooker Dies Suddenly.
Experts Baffled, But Agree He Is Now Cooked.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/devastation-salford-red-devils-star-25955183

The90kwbeast

300k would just backfill one year of closed borders covid

You’d need 400k or more to do it I reckon in one year

Ramjet

Do you think they’ll stop at 300k this year? We’ll have a skills shortage next year and ‘need’ 300k next year. Same with the year after. The system shouldn’t be too far off collapsing. Been to a Victorian hospital or any of their government services you will see them not far from collapse. But alas the solution to fix it will be …. more immigration.

stagmal

fmd we are absolutely rooted, maybe it’d of been better had LNP won

Chuckmuscle

For shits and giggles you could try saying that over at old embee

stagmal

except i can’t i’m banned for life

Ramjet

Airbus Albo is just a repeat of KRudd

  • Airbus Albo and we had Kevin 747 neither were in the country
  • Both were extremely popular at the start of their terms
  • KRudd did the apology and Albo doing the Voice
  • Both are big Australia extremists

When the population got sick of a big Australia, they turned against KRudd which was about two years after he was elected. We’ll see if history repeats itself.

Azrael

Meyer Store Frankston Closes
Mouth Breathing Chongs Get Bargains
https://content.api.news/v3/images/bin/6c4d856c7c2857aab1eea676c89cbea6

Coming

Lmao

stagmal

on topic but did youse hear how jim molan just karked it

the guy was deranged, a real hardcore neo-lib anti-russian/anti-china guy

a john mccain type to the end

glad he’s gone

Coming

His daughter could get it though

https://www.wikifeet.com/Erin_Molan

and we know she hates coconuts

soy boy are you in ?

Aussie Soy Boy

Jaw is too square for my liking.

stagmal

square jawed women = slayer sons

PSL called it the slut jaw

Gouda

What does PSL stand for?

Gouda

Cheers, would never have worked that out in a million years.

Stewie

I reckon she’d have a high body count. She reminds me of this chick

A9C80CEE-3317-4541-870A-177487C77B65.jpeg
emusplatt

“peoples we is not wrapped tight” Zappa

https://twitter.com/JohnLeePettim13/status/1614178348694904837

Ramjet

Don’t worry, ABC News has already told the sheeple what they want to hear:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-09/digging-in:-why-powering-a-green-future-means-more/13873540

The real solution is a reduction in energy demand from planting trees in streets, light coloured roofs, better insulation etc.. But less energy demand will mean less demand for the windmill grifts. So we’ll go for the solution that keep our mates well moneyed and everyone else poor. It is the EZFKA way.

A fly in your ointment

one can still do it at a personal micro level… alas, they will merry greenigication with a set montly fee rather then the % of consumption.

Coming
Coming

police have all the CCTV , but “nobody has been charged”

Wonder if she will still be voting yes to ‘the voice’

stagmal

very likely was boong kids, theyre untouchable police arent even gonna try.

stagmal

who the fuck is melissa hoyer lol

the weird world of australia’s arcane gutter tier celebrity culture

Peachy

This seems to be an infomercial for MG, to position them as a chic and green lifestyle choice.

uncle says that they are just Chinese junk.

Coming

not everything is a conspiracy!

Azrael

It’s a little known fact that as women age, their gazongas get bigger.
comment image

Coming

waiting for soyboy to tell us shes too fat or jaw too square

stagmal

that lebbo just keeps getting hotter fmd

one good PSL theory i heard floated once was square jawed women age better because their larger mandibles support their facial structures better, preventing age-related ‘cave in’ that happens when your bones recede during senesence

Last edited 15 days ago by stagmal
Azrael

Who is she? way she’s going by the time she’s 80 they’ll be the size of small planets.

stagmal

salma hayek

mexican actress of lebanese descent

Last edited 15 days ago by stagmal
Azrael

She’s about 54 years of age in that last pic. Wow.

Azrael

I’m putting together a Mamas And The Papas tribute cover band.
Looking for other mixed race musicians to join.
Gonna call the band The Mamas And The Hapas.

Jammy

The Sunnybank Cat Howlers

Aussie Soy Boy

1990’s version I would. She’s just some old broad with sloppy tits now.

Azrael

lol, tough crowd

Coming

You’re going to remain a virgin forever with that attitude

please don’t waste your life like this

Stewie

Comings dream date – find a fold and go, go, go!

Capture - Copy.JPG
Freddy

“You know they’re fat when you’re doing 69 and can’t hear the radio”

– Andrew Dice Clay

emusplatt

that cvnt keating has his birthday today.

vomitous hagiographers everywhere

No1

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64315594

“Eighteen people have been killed, including Ukraine’s interior affairs minister, after a helicopter crashed beside a kindergarten in an eastern suburb of the capital Kyiv.
Three children were among the dead and 15 more are being treated in hospital.
The minister, Denys Monastyrsky, was with eight others in the helicopter.
His first deputy minister and the state secretary also died, officials said, when the helicopter came down in the suburb of Brovary.”

Apparently, wars are dangerous for important people too.

Azrael

comment image

Coming

https://twitter.com/ozraeliavi/status/1615768882014310400?s=46&t=y5dT6zakK9JU-JZKEs0N-Q

he’s a soulless grifter but you have to admire his balls

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