Over some given timeframe from now, what are your expectations for housing prices? What will prices be like in given Aus markets over the next 18-24 / whatever / months? Do you think they’re going down and staying down or is this just another false alarm? 20% falls? 50% falls? What will happen! Let’s talk about it. I genuinely would like to know.
Markets are wrong on interest rates, they are going higher than what they are predicting. People calling the peak in the rate cycle are deluded, inflation in the UK now over 10%, BoE says it will peak close to 14%, some banks now saying it could hit 20%!
Real rates in the US are as low as they have ever been and this is a massive problem. Stagmal, you had the best comment I’ve seen posted here when you talked about how the Ruble can’t be defeated because Russia actually produces stuff. Here in the West our service economy delivers diversity counciling, gender reassignment consulting, etc, it’s all based on bullshit.
Bretton Woods has relied on its power in the past, those days are gone, and with the growth of the BRICS real rates in the West have to go positive or the system combusts.
Expect a slowing of rate rises but they will continue for years, there are no cuts coming 2023. Sydney prices will fall minimum 50%, probably bottom of the cycle will be down 60-70%.
I hope you are right
You really don’t.
That is another great depression in the making.
“Sydney prices will fall minimum 50%, probably bottom of the cycle will be down 60-70%.”
Hello, bcn? Is that you?
bcnich believes interest rates are going to back to zero or negative, so it isn’t bcnich
But he’s more internally consistent and coherent than bcnich
It was more a friendly jeer in regards to the 50%+ falls. I dont think it’s really bcn.
That said I havent seen bcn anywhere lately but had a laugh about the negative interest rates. I can’t keep up with the twists and turns in that blokes predictions!
I didn’t even consider solar activity in my predictions! Is that bloke still active on Embee?
Well you are also by extension asking for the nationalisation of the housing market and the banking system as we know it.
And high interest rates hurts wealthy people, inflation doesn’t.
I’m still in the camp of more than about a 3% cash rate will start to sink the ship as the stock of debt is simply too high. 5% would be total bear crash territory, look at what the increases have already done, the market is in freefall as it is.
Seems highly unlikely your scenario would be permitted to play out.
All I know is the corporate landlords haven’t started buying yet …dunno what their price trigger / yield trigger would be.
WA will outperform in the long-term
Because of Rare Earth’s
Not Iron Ore
🤣 🤣 🤣
Houses stagnated in my market for a few months but stock has started selling again. No price drops, still top dollar.
Bottom in 6 months, before hopping on another rocket as RBA cuts into an economic bust mid next year. Probably flat in 12 months, but up over 18 months
Aus house prices maybe back to late 2019 levels then giddyup.
Real estate in Aus is v different to international, so comparisons are always risky. I will say that for an asset class to be so full of uneducated ‘professionals’ and punters is scary.
Not one journo in RE even has a basic knowledge or education in property yet will pump out articles galore knowing they won’t face 1 billionth the scrutiny as the Equities world.
“Melbourne property prices forecast could tumble as much as 18% by 2023”. Can’t see headlines like that about an ASX listing.
Consider how this is fed to journos and then swallowed whole by the market. RE Data firms or Buyers Advocates (failed agents) seeking free publicity generate a story (ie. PropTrack said the above to help lift their profile from being rebranded from REA Group). RE journo says “the average Melbourne home price could plummet more than $150,000 before the end of the a year”… No question how or why this might occur, just print the fear narrative. The RE agents read this, confused because they are not seeing blood in the streets from people are dumping their lifelong biggest asset for big losses. There are very few forced sellers in fact, and supply has been very constrained from Covid impacts meaning low stock levels. The poor sap Buyers read the article and think they should drop their offer price, yet face a still very heated market so are confused.
Larger Apartment developers are turning to BTR, rental stock not being available for new sales. Construction pricing is way too high, meaning less projects start, more are delayed or fall over, but overall less supply comes on. Councils are still killing or delaying permit approvals due to their NIMBY socialist attitudes, again reducing supply.
Demand continues, in many parts of Australia normal Aussies are living in tents and cars. RE is a basic need. There is just no pressure for the majority of Aussies on their mortgage, and I’m guessing won’t be for another full 1%. More likely the next 0.5% interest rate rise on 6th September will trigger a wave of Jet Ski sales. Obviously there will be a few instances of punter’s dumping left a home for a loss, but these occur anytime. My thinking is some slow to no price growth will be maintained while construction and supply gets sorted out, Switzer’s “House prices are crashing” headlines are as bad as the agents trumpeting how good the market is. Then wait until Albo turns the tap on for 20 million starving Sri Lankans, they won’t be living in tents. I’m expecting growth kicking off again into late 2023.
Time on market is still not used as a metric, which shows how a market is travelling. Longer obviously means cooling, shorter means a hotter market. Who would know? RE journos sure don’t use it, they use the easily manipulated clearance rates. That for me is a critical indicator, not a creaky model filled with too many variables.
I notice the language used is changing. Chris Joye has gone from ‘crashing’ to ‘plummeting’.
Waiting for ‘slight decline’, ‘flat’ and ‘sideways’.
nope, the RE is the same as everywhere, it is the policies that are here hell bent on support.
So it is very different then.
Cost base, taxation benefits, bankruptcy laws (ie. mortgagee in US can just walk away), level of population ownership (ie. much higher level of rentals in Italy), etc etc.
China RE very interesting too, they’re strapped in for a real car crash.
I was just being pedantic. effectively – your statement is true, I just wanted to point towards the surreal difference: every .gov policy is a function of RE support, even those that may only have trivial effects.
All other stuff that make a tangible difference (your list) are just the result of those policies.
Sorry, yes. Your point/humour wooshed over my head. Cheers
Mortgagee can’t necessarily walk away in all states of USA. Investopedia actually surprised me in how few states allow them.
“Most mortgage loans are recourse loans, except in 12 states that forbid recourse home loans. Those states are Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Idaho, Minnesota, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, Texas, Utah, and Washington.
It is important to note that lenders don’t always pursue assets beyond the collateral in default cases, especially by individuals. Seizing assets is time-consuming and expensive, and a lender may write off a loss rather than continue to pursue it.
So we’re going to have 10-15% inflation year on year but 50% drop in property? Work that one out.
We’ll be at the point in 5 years a brand new Sahara costs more than 4×2 in many parts of the country.
Plus the cost to build and labour has gone through the roof this puts the floor on the price of an existing property.
Those people living in tents were always a catastrophe or personal problem away from being in a tent. Some people and I’ve had to deal with them, can’t plan even 7 days in advance. Most of them idiots bred by a long line of idiots they shouldn’t have even been born. I’d rather live next to an Indian or Chinaman than any of those scum in tents they’d be playing loud music and having loud parties if they had a rental so fuck them.
The lockdowns showed just how spare cash anyone with a proper job has.
I think you’ve got a point. Some people are true degenerate scum
“I’d rather live next to an Indian or Chinaman than any of those scum in tents.”
No, you wouldn’t. Self loathing nonsense.
Not self loathing. Indians and Chinamen are quiet, respectful neighbours. The perfect neighbours in fact.
I haven’t found the indians I’ve worked with particularly quiet or respectful…
And even more to the point many of reuses working girls specifically forbid indians.
Lol no they aren’t.
You be also never lived in those countries I’m willing to bet.
all depends on interest rates i guess
the 2yr is now back to 3% – not quite up to where it was at the june highs but substantially off the bottom of 2.4% or so
hasn’t been that high since 2012 or so
if the OCR gets there (which it usually does with a lag of a few months) then it will be carnage
but somehow we always pull a rabbit out of the hat so I’m not holding my breath
nothing in my PPOR area has sold for 9 months which is pretty crazy
i remember even in 2019 when they tightened lending laws/regulations there was a few quick sales at “discount”
but not at all this time
people are willing to sit on them at this point
possibly a lot on fixed mortgages, or maybe they have plenty of money and can afford to wait expecting rates to collapse back to zero or below in the near future
My “expectation” of house prices are about equal to my expectations of winning the lotto: have nothing to do with reality. So is everyone else’s expectations. 😀
On a serious note, I think it is a fool’s errand to predict house value movements in an entire country. Markets within markets sort of thing. I do not believe that any movement, be it decline or rise, will be universal across Australia. Each state or territory has a different driver behind its economic fortune. Each state has capital housing market that will differ in performance from the regional market. Different suburbs in each capital market will perform differently, same with regional areas.
However, I will take a stab at it. Assumptions for my predictions:
Broadly, markets over next 18 months ™:
And, finally, price of a parking spot in any CBD will see steady increase circa 10% per annum per hour.
what constitutes extreme high value to you?
what about high value ? 5-10?
High value: median x2 to x5
Extreme high value: > median x5
So for Perth, for example, median is ~$550K. SO high value ~$1.1M to ~$2.75M, extreme high $3M and above
so extreme high value in Sydney is 5m?
that barely buys a terrace
Depending what is the median price.
Here it says $1.6M, so 5x that is $8M
Here it says $2.9M for houses and $1.1 for units, so 5x would be $14.5M houses and $5.5 units
This search gives me just 6 houses over $8M, so I think I’m pretty close.
In Sydney 2000?
it’s all apartments in 2000
a terrace near the city is minimum 2m
5m buys a modest freestanding house in the east or lower north shore
Certainly not “extreme high value”
8m you might get something with water views but not on the water
it’s more like 15+ before you start getting into true trophy home territory
There are currently 71 houses on domain listed for 15M+ (but a lot would be private sales at that price)
if I lower the range to 8M there are over 200
the reason I am interested is because I feel like UHNW individuals are more likely to have inside knowledge on what is coming down the pipe
so if I follow where they live and what they invest in I’ll be ok
Dude, you asked my basis of assumptions, I answered. I have no argument one way or the other, either take it or leave it.
I’m glad you clarified them, because our definitions are wildly different
that only really holds true in the specific area they actually made their net worth. Plenty of rich people have lost lots of money trying new things.
Just read a puff piece from Labor Luvvie ex ABC (aren’t they all?) Alan Kohler fawning over Paul Keating who is banging the drum still for our Super to be ploughed back into housing.
“This is a society that can’t house its children…without being heavy handed there’s is a requirement of the Funds to look at social opportunities “. Keating said.
It was good of him to not to bother explaining why his daughter Katherine was once staying with Jeffrey Epstein in New York (she was photographed saying goodbye to Prince Andrew, so must have been pretty closely involved). Nothing to see here…just total scumbags.
Chalmers also said “We see trillions of dollars in workers’ capital, we see government budgets heaving in debt, and there are obvious needs for investment particularly in areas like housing and energy “.
Step up fellow Labor mate Evan Thornley (ex Vic MP until he realised the startup grift paid better, even though he managed to blow up an EV charging co.) and his Longview business. That is based on large scale residential property management (and therefore keen to grow that market).
The Socialism style takeover from Covid continues, it’s now private funds being annexed to support Union mates and their pet projects. If you thought Albo giving hundreds of millions of our dollars to the great Ukrainian grifter Zelensky was bad, you ain’t seen nothing.
Total existing residential property is approx $7.6 trillion in Aus., 3 times the sharemarket.
Why would you think housing would be allowed to crash with friends like these guys?
“….requirement of the Funds to look at social opportunities “. Keating said.
aahhh! new corporate landlords
That’s the key thing everyone is missing.
Paul Keating is their God, Labor and the Left have never had an economic policy worth wiping your arse with because is was smeared with Left agendas. Keating has an ego so huge he has banged on about his success in creating Super (I’ll give him that one) he has been carried in an Emperors Chair for the rest of his life to Labor love ins and various talk fests.
The Super industry was created as a means of ensuring (most) Australians can support themselves into retirement, and have less on Government support from pensions. To do so, Super Funds need to make a profit. To make a profit is their basic MO.
Now the Left are literally mugging the Super industry like a rich Granny, to steal that money for its Climate grift and housing. Keating even said he they shouldn’t invest overseas. Profit is not their main aim then. That’s why they were allowed to buy major Infra assets like airports, in the same way Putin did for his Oligarch mates the Super funds have done in Australia.
Super Funds will be forced into becoming another arm of Albanese Government, delivering on his policies.
Australians by default will be poorer in this, unless you think the Super funds will make a profit from somehow from investment in green and social agendas.
SMSF’s don’t allow themselves to be plundered so will get harsher treatment from Albanese, hey SMSF’s are rich so who cares right?
O/T. Another Athlete Departs This Mortal Coil
LOL sucked in! Hope it was a vaccine heart attack!
Vaccines are good for your heart the more you take the more you cark.
take the Jab, end up on a slab.
I don’t reckon it’s going to be an apocalypse. The cost to build will certainly put a floor on prices of dumps. The sale cost needs to factor in $4.5-5k /sqm current build rate so no more Imaginary BLICK budgets.
$5k/m² sale or cost of build?
Build cost. But that would be more like $10k/sqm now
O/T – Oddly Misshapen Whore Pimps Daughter To Thirsty Idiots
Story bought to you by Claudia Poposki
I would do the mum. If the daughter had any ambition she would have pimped out mum.
my vote… house prices will not go down ever, at least not substantially. It can only be that everything else is going to catchup with the houses. Last bit that will catch up with them will be wages.
A couple of articles in my local rag. Housing and rentals. Check out the comments section.
With house prices astronomically high in comparison to wages and interest rates increasing house prices should fall dramatically. However, Australia has been in this situation before over the last few decades and in every case house prices rose dramatically, as the Government does everything it can to keep them inflated. Not sure what it can do in the future beyond directly printing money and giving it to people to buy at the overinflated prices, but I’m sure they will come up with something. The big question is whether it will be effective.
Aside from that here is an article on the remains of the covid hysteria in Australia that I found interesting.
Main thing they can do is allow anyone in the world to buy Aussie housing, say it’ll help labour shortages and diversity or some shit
I have been banging on this for a while now. All “they” have to do is reinstate RBA’s TFF at 0.1% to the banks for housing loans only, capped at 2% fixed. Problem solved, inflation drives wage growth, housing debt is inflated away or extended to buy a new Audi SUV.
Freddie Mac / Fannie Mae have the playbook, although after the collapse. If RBA makes this happen beforte the collapse, they are proactive economic geniuses!
Yeh could make it exclusive to FHBs or a broader group of “battlers” earning under $150K or $300K for a couple.
And like I’ve been saying for a while now. “They” will never let house prices crash unless “they” are on the right side of the bet. The banks are like a casino and the house always wins…
Start at 0:50
One of the best westerns, in my opinion
Frak me, it’s another gay day. I hope everyone is wearing purple to combat homophobia. Seriously, how many days/weeks/months are we supposed to have to “celebrate” this stuff?
Next week: “rub yourself against a man who has sex with other men week” to stand in solidarity against Monkeypox.
Female Colorado social worker is accused of making sexual advances toward at least 40 mothers | Daily Mail Online
This lez took away their children if they refused.
lol at the alphabet people
Italian man tests positive for monkeypox, Covid, HIV all at once: Report | Business Standard News (business-standard.com)
He got the Trifecta! I think nature/God is trying to tell them something
PM skolling beer promotes substance abuse and domestic violence.
When Abbott does it
When Albo and the girl in Finland with her obviously drug affected friends gets pissed it shows they’re human!
In fairness, if the left didn’t have double standards, they would not have any standards.
Who gives a shit? The Finns elected her. Let them now suffer her. Maybe they will learn something. Best of luck to them with Nato getting demilitarized.
i think their little scam is starting to fall apart. lol.
It’s amazing to watch. Firstly, when The Orange One was in charge they never wanted to take any shot developed under his watch. Then, when The Big Guy won, it was going to end the pandemic because once you got the shot the virus was a dead end. Now, owing to the shots abject failure (And probably significantly high injury rate, albeit small on an absolute basis, but nonetheless a clear opening for law suits against the .gov and mandates), The Orange One is back in the cross hairs and fauci resigns. Hardly a coincidence or maybe I’m just a chicken little
Don’t forget that Pfizer actually delayed the release of what few clinical trials they were performing until after the US election, simply to ensure that Trump was provided with no positive news flow on his handling of the crisis – which the media was running 100% as being his fault:
Read it like you still can, and it too like every other article implying there was a conspiracy between the DNC and large progressive corporations and agencies worked together to oppose Trump:
They’re blaming it all on him now. Predictable.
This is legit scary…
Russian MIL Discuss US Crimes Against Humanity at SCO Summit (substack.com)
Just because the populations of the west are willfully oblivious to the crimes of their elites, does not mean it won’t end badly for the rest of us.
The yanks (and Aussie diggers) were and are notorious rapists and murderers.
Any support for that?
I’ve asked before, any links Soy Boy?
This guy got a taste of that freedom America and Australia were spreading. Get some!
US and Aussie troops raped their way through Vietnam, killed civilians for fun, mutilated bodies, used chemical weapons. Laos is the most bombed country in history.
Went on to this day look at what we’re finding out what happened in Afghanistan. The tip of the iceberg. Drinking out of dead civilians prosthetic leg how low can you get.
US and Aussie soldiers are vermin filth.
So no links then, for the 1,000 roes a year alone you claimed in Afghanistan?
Given that Australian withdrew from Afghanistan in April 2021, and at that time they reduced to the current 1,550 personnel you’re saying nearly every single ADF member committed rape 3 years ago, and more since?
Or were you talking about Iraq? There hostilities ended July 2019 and we have 75 personnel at preset, so they must have each committed approximately 13 rapes each, including the Australian women soldiers in that contingent. Only 2,000 Aussies served in Iraq since 2003, so how did they get enough time to serve if they were raping all day?
You are clearly mental.
Or an ADF member fucked his wife.
Australians are responsible for the horrific war crimes of US soliders and vice versa. Australians no different to nazi collaborators in WW2.
Aussie troops were notorious rapists in Vietnam though. It’s why they neck themselves when they get back can’t live with the sick shit they did over their to innocent people.
This article failed to consider that the Russians are also producing propaganda.
Does it really make sense that the reason the invasion has been so slow is that they are avoiding civilian casualties?
Either the Ukrainians love targeting their own schools or the Ruskis artillery isn’t all that accurate
Amnesty international put out a report that the Ukrainian military was putting civilians in increased danger by operating out of civilian areas. It didn’t excuse the Ruskis for invading though.
Both sides are committing war crimes.
Let’s examine how the enemy propaganda works. They claim that the war in UA started in 2014 when some mob got torched in a union house and it has lasted ever since:
‘My 11-year-old daughter Katya was torn in two.’ Listen to how a resident of Gorlovka in the DPR, Anna Tuv, in 2015 lost her daughter and husband in an instant as a result of shelling by the Ukrainian military. The story of a woman who was left with two babies, but without a hand, is read by the poet Anna Dolgareva. This video was prepared as part of the project ‘Donbass: Testimonies of pain’, when famous people read real stories of Donbass residents.
You can view other parts of this project using the hashtag #Testimoniesofpain.
obviously this is a propaganda hence no publication of this in the local media.
I still think proper houses with actual living space should at worse maintain their current value, and with WFH now established there’s going to be a need for dedicated spaces like studies or additional rooms to accommodate this and those features will provide a point of difference.
Recently a 4x2x2 sold near me for more than what I paid last year, and in the weeks leading up to the sale there was a lot of interest from couples and families. On house size it’s basically the same, perhaps a bit smaller. Based on land size, it’s a third larger so you could argue there’s been a drop. However, in this part of my suburb there’s some kind of landscape overlay which makes further redevelopment extremely restrictive.
The suburb median was around 1.3 when I purchased, but there have been places on smaller blocks going for 1.8+ in the last 6 months which really surprised me. And this is supposed to be the affordable part of eastern Melbourne – essentially anything east side of Warrigal Road.
Am expecting dog boxes and small apartments designed for the international student market to crash. Interestingly the most expensive property went for over 2.5m had 12 bedrooms and was clearly student accommodation (and the photo also had a sign outside confirming this).
Sounds like property fell fucking heaps if a third more land gets you the prices of last year all other things equal.
That’s what I figured too, but neighbours have mentioned that you even if the block is larger it can’t be developed due to council rules. Today I spotted what I think be the litmus test – property is almost the same, but smaller block at half the size. The asking price is only 100k less, but it’s going to auction instead of a private sale.
By the year 2100, based on the scientific fact of house prices doubling every 7 years, approximately $AUD 12.3B national median!
Strap in for the super extreme gains to come!
House prices will fall a bit more and then stop and in some cases go up.
The cost of new builds has dramatically increased, so anything new or near new will command a premium to other stock on the market. A four year old duplex three streets away had dozens of people inspect at each inspection.
The new government has increased the migration rate. The number of for lease signs around me have plummeted in the last year and rental prices have gone up. The increased yield with scope for further increases will mean some investors will be active in the market.
As Gouda has mentioned, WFH will mean houses will a dedicated work area do attract a premium.
If interest rates keep going up that will put downward pressure on prices, but I think the government will step in and expand the shared equity scheme and expand immigration even further.
This sounds about right. Maybe another 5-10% to go from here before all the factors above ensure a price floor.
If you want to see if people are commit to a cause, sue them and see how they hold up.
Spoke to a friend last week about this who does some work with trans patients. Told me he shared his experience on Reddit a while back, and got downvoted to oblivion. Apparently questioning someone who wants to transition to make sure they’re not making decisions based on a treatable condition like psychosis or depression, or making sure there isn’t some kind of forensic or legal issue driving it is against “affirmation policies.”
This essentially boils down to, what the patient wants, the patient gets. But the “customer is always right mentality” generally doesn’t apply in the health setting.
Then again, when it does and you get sued for going along with the patient.. https://www.smh.com.au/national/absolutely-devastating-woman-sues-psychiatrist-over-gender-transition-20220823-p5bbyr.html
if you’re a (girly) man who wants to be more manly, you can’t get testosterone legally prescribed for any amount of money
If you’re a teenage girl who wants to be more manly, the government will fund your testosterone replacement no questions asked
this is what i have heard, its all but impossible to get TRT in australia for a guy with subnormal t levels even if its causing them problem
if i wanted it I would get it prescribed for my wife, and then just take it myself
Not really. Easier to get if you are over 40 but still not hard to do.
how did you get it
It’s only if you want it PBS subsidised that it has to come from an endocrinologist, but some sports medicine doctors will do it off label. Then there is always the local gym “supplier.”
Not just for pbs subsidy
it requires an authority (have to call up)
if there are doctors doing it they are risking their license
I’m very familiar with how authority scripts work, and in most cases any doctor can write a private script (so by definition no authority call is needed or PBS criteria applies).
I know some years ago a lot of GPs were initiating the first prescription of testosterone, but there was a review in the early 2010s that limited it to endocrinologists and paediatricians.
But I’m not sure if it’s like modafinil which only sleep specialists can get the authority to prescribe for a narcolepsy diagnosis, but other doctors could might prescribe it offlabel for say ADHD. Or is testosterone more like roaccutane where only dermatologists are able to prescribe it? Hard to tell from the PBS website information.
It funny seeing people post here anonymously and realising we run in similar circles… I’m replying to all in this thread not just Gouda.
fwiw I may or may not know someone that is on trt and knows a thing or two about it 😉
You need to get authority to legally prescribe it irrespective of pbs subsidy (cost is negligible anyway but I think only veterans get it subsidised)
I didn’t but my brother does, as Gouda mentioned below via sports medicine doctor.
So it’s expensive but not so hard to do. I will be doing the same in a year or two.
Hook a brother up
Honestly this is the basis for most Western progressive morality nowadays – if I want to do something and it doesn’t immediately hurt anyone, despite for whatever reason it traditionally being viewed as anti-social behaviour, than that is acceptable.
The only ‘immorality’ nowadays is opposing the anything goes attitude of “Its my right”.
Everyone talks about rights, no one wants responsibilities.
Amazing how that script was flipped by the ruling class wrt vaccine mandates and lockdowns.
I raise trans issues as an exception, as it is not quite yet a free for all in in terms of medication prescribing. If someone goes to a GP and demands a year’s supply of endone or valium or some other restricted drug with addictive potential they’re very rarely going do it if they feel that it’s not indicated despite what the patient demands.
But rather than refuse outright and risking an angry patient or frivolous complaint, the GP might defer to a pain specialist or psychiatrist knowing very well that the recipient will take one look at the referral letter and decline to accept it.
new rogan with alex berenson episode given the guy came up last thread