Looks like my predictions from a few days ago have come true, and just at the right time. Explosions are being heard in various cities across Ukraine, including the capital Kiev. So far Russia has signalled a clear intent to enter the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts for “peacekeeping” purposes, but I think Russia’s president Putin intends to occupy the entire country. Ignorance of the strength of Russia’s military capacities in the West (and probably Ukraine) is goading many Ukranians to their doom, as I have observe multiple stories over the past few days in the ABC and elsewhere praising random grandmas and other hapless civilians being trained in small-arms weapons for the purposes of fighting the invasion. It is sad to say that most of these people, if they are ever unlucky enough to “see” combat, will be incinerated by Russian weapons’ systems miles away. Most casualties in modern major state wars result from explosives, artillery and rocketry; the idea that there is going to be meaningful rifle to rifle, building to building combat here is a fantasy of a media that gets its ideas on contemporary warfare and maneuver from real time strategy games, if even that.
EZFKA’s placeholder managers have leapt at the opportunity to pretend they matter on the global stage, announcing some meaningless sanctions from Australia on Russia. I wonder what this could mean? What does Australia possibly produce that Russia doesn’t also have in abundance that Russia needs for anything? The same can be said for a lot of other countries sanction threats, which I don’t think will matter all that much to Russia. Mostly what will will result from these sanctions and Ukraine’s foolish intransigence on NATO is more expensive prices at the bowser, even more inflated costs of living and even costs of food (see: ammonium nitrate, for one).
So let’s discuss! What will the outcomes here be? Will it go any further or will Russia just stop at the breakaway republics? I don’t think it will, and I was right before. Are you planning on trading this? What’s your angle?