Budget Discussion

Is there anything interesting in this shit at all? All I saw so far was the extended range of payments to single parents (read: mothers), so the typical reward the biggest fuck ups policy yet again, in line with the increase in the Jobseeker rate to over 55s.. Other than that, there’s probably nothing in there of much interest.

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No1

Mates, pensioners, single mothers and disabled people are the only beneficiaries of every budget

Even tax cuts just restore the status quo after bracket creep

You’re either in the 5 million welfare dependent households or you’re funding them

Lswchp

It’s a government welfare program. Of course it’s a preposterous rort to benefit the big end of town at the expense of the people. That’s what welfare programs are designed to do.

OzCuck

They probably have to help single mothers now. Otherwise they’d be on the street because of the rent increases.

Yeah, people who earn say $100k-$200k (and can’t do tradie cashies) are the biggest patsies, and don’t get much respect either.

Drago

NDIS is Bill Shorten’s continual fuckup that no one seems to care about the $40 billion cost blow out, are they all just glad he didn’t make PM?

You can literally get cash to get a blowjob on the NDIS, and even have a ‘cater’ drive you and wait outside while you’re in the brothel.

Those carers are too busy to help genuinely disabled kids, whose parents have to fight for Specialists funding.

Awesome job Albo & Bill.

Gouda

Under the NDIS one can get funding for support workers, which is similar to previous services that were provided by community not-for-profits.

For the role one needs a Cert III, hourly rate about $30/hr. But under the NDIS, the rate has doubled and travelling time also gets included in the costing -so you now hear about patients charged $180 for an hour of support plus 1 hour of travel each way.

Peachy

For the role one needs a Cert III, hourly rate about $30/hr. But under the NDIS, the rate has doubled and travelling time also gets included in the costing -so you now hear about patients charged $180 for an hour of support plus 1 hour of travel each way

yeah, that sounds about right… judging by the huge fucking billboards and advertising airtime that the NDIS providers pay for to push their services, the top line would be very solid.

enough to actually sling the staff another $15-$20 per hour & rake off about $100per hour as gross profit.

Coming

I know a guy who converts apartments to NDIS compatible – I guess hand rails in the bathrooms etc

then rents them out at exorbitant above market rents to “disableds”

all paid for by the taxpayer

he posts a lot of photos of his expensive watches to Instagram
dresses in fancy clothes
married a much younger wife

he’s a wog

Peachy

I know a guy who converts apartments to NDIS compatible – I guess hand rails in the bathrooms etc 

then rents them out at exorbitant above market rents to “disableds”

all paid for by the taxpayer

genius, combining implicit government support (propadee) with explicit government transfers (NDIS)!

Absolute EZFKA legend!

DictatorDavid

I know someone that takes a NDIS person one night a week for “respite”. They get $1000 a night plus expenses paid i.e. going to dinner, getting their nails done.
$1000 a night every week for a fucking sleep over!

Last edited 10 months ago by DictatorDavid
Gouda

Crazy – it is cheaper to get 24 hour respite nursing care at a private hospital.

Largest rort I’ve heard of is an NDIS care coordinator renting out rooms in their house for $2000 a week to their clients. Complete boundary violations.

Peachy

I know someone that takes a NDIS person one night a week for “respite”. They get $1000 a night plus expenses paid i.e. going to dinner, getting their nails done.

$1000 a night every week for a fucking sleep over!

lol. soon we can import Filipinas to do this – $70k “dayjob” plus $1,000 per night for sleepovers

Coming

are prostitutes covered by NDIS?

They certainly should be
and incels should be eligible (under “autism” umbrella)

Coming

https://planpartners.com.au/knowledge/articles/ndis-sex-therapy-family-planning#

https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/12/ndis-funds-pay-sex-workers-court-rules

lololol you fucking wat m8

yes whores are covered by the ndis

Should have known that would be one of the first pieces of legislation shorten pushed through

Stewie

Most single mothers I’ve encountered are leavers of abusive relationships or failed marriages, with useless, feckless partners.

Only a minority of them are single mothers purposely by design and deliberate intent. Being decent to the unfortunate and often immature Australians trying to do the right thing and fix their lives comes with the knowledge that it will always be abused by a minority.

I personally think 8 yrs is too soon to kick them off welfare, while 14 years is too generous. A mother’s welfare should end when their child leaves primary school. Simple.

Peachy

Only a minority of them are single mothers purposely by design and deliberate intent. Being decent to the unfortunate and often immature Australians trying to do the right thing and fix their lives comes with the knowledge that it will always be abused by a minority.

I’d agree with this. There is certainly a segment of single mothers closely distributed around the “uneducated dropkick” node.

but also many, many more, distributed around the “fell in love with a dickhead” node, who are stuck with a child and genuinely trying to do what’s best for them and the kid

Coming

Lolol pumped and dumped by a chad = fell in love

choices
consequences

A fly in your ointment

when you get a letter from a lawyer that says we gunna fluck you, then bring in junior partners to pluck you then apprentices and interims to phuk you, thereafter we bring in the receptionists, cleaners and delivery people to fluck you “unless you…”, it is hardly going to make any party willing to cooperate to a mutual benefit let alone see it as a child welfare. It’s a declaration ofbwar and the only winners are lawyers and barriaters.
I’ve seen one letter like that. Combine it with the system whuch is wickedly tilted into phucking the father in almost every case and…

~~~~~~~

“fell in love with a dickhead”

why?
why do people do that?
people don’t change their character overnight.

DictatorDavid

Alpha fucks, beta bucks

robert2013

14 is the age that children are allowed to start part time work I think.

Coming

Lmao I love the picture

these cunts just love to give away money

no recognition that govt surplus/deficit is the biggest driver of inflation rates, not monetary policy

also policy markedly affects inflation and wages
who needs to work when albo will give you a free govt house and the dole for everybody

just pump out one kid and you can bludge for 14 years

the middle class will cease to exist soon

No1

Why didn’t you refuse the jab and go on the dole in a free government house

DictatorDavid

.

chinese-kid.gif
Coming

because i make too much money to justify doing that

Coming

yes its a question of escape velocity of income

at what point are you better off just bludging

probably 100k/pa ?
especially if youre abo or female

Last edited 10 months ago by Coming
Aussie Soy Boy

It’s been years I’ve had a long break and one week off since COVID started.

I wouldn’t mind just going on the dole for a year, doing some travelling every couple of months, instead of travelling for 6 months and burning through cash.

My mortgage is paid off, I have no debt, plenty of savings/stocks. I’d have to sit out a liquid asset waiting period of course. If I had to work for the dole I’d just cancel it. I’ve got a few hundred bucks of side income as well, I can top it up by a couple hundred dollars per week from the dole. This would would be over $500 per week by my calculations which would cover my normal weekly expenses. Basically I could tread water for 12 months and not go backwards financially.

It’s probably not worth the effort after the waiting period I’d only get $7k in a 12 month period, but something about it is alluring to take and navigating the system as a LARPing dole bludger.

Aussie Soy Boy

I should say over $500 per week if my income test calculations for the dole are correct. Basically get topped up and the job search requirements are less rigorous. They’ll kind of leave you alone if what I read is correct.

Coming

you could have a kid with a druggie, try to get sole custody

then you and the kid can just go travelling for 14 years on $922/fortnight

maybe do some cashies or collect cans on the side

probably get a government house too

Aussie Soy Boy

Looks like Jimmy might be offering an extra $20 per week all dole bludgers, so I could have that number closer to $1100 per fortnight than $1000.

Aussie Soy Boy

The requirements are just fake job searches right? I’ve got a side income too. The job providers want no hoper bludgers who haven’t worked for years because then they can get the subsidies for putting them in a job. They wouldn’t get anything for giving me work if I understand the system.

Aussie Soy Boy

I’d only be a LARPing bludger. I’d just cancel it if they made me do a course to get it. A demeaning seminar might be interesting though just to see what it is all about.

Aussie Soy Boy

That’s probably the way to go.

Gouda

The best you can get is a 3 month medical exemption from mutual obligations. After doing it twice, it may possibly be extended for another 3 months with specialist evidence. Usually at that time there will be a generic recommendation that one should instead apply for the DSP even though they likely know it will be knocked back.

Aussie Soy Boy

There’s nothing more pathetic than having mental illness or using it as an excuse, so couldn’t go down that route.

Gouda

One thing I’ve seen is a trend with patients claiming ADHD or high functioning autism as a reason to never work, yet have several patients with severe mental illness (eg. Psychosis, bipolar) who have recognized that there’s value, self-worth and positive mental health implications in being able to work and contribute to society.

Stewie

“One thing I’ve seen is a trend with patients claiming ADHD or high functioning autism as a reason to never work”

That is because a lot of banks and insurance contracts wrote stupidly generous insurance policies that gave you 80% of your average salary over any consecutive two year period of your working life, that you are free to select.

Frankly it is tempting, go on permanent disability for $180k a year indexed and never have to attend another meeting that starts with a ‘Welcome to Country Statement’ while parasiting off the same industry that has bled my nation dry…. all the evidence I’d need would be to point them to this site.

Last edited 10 months ago by Stewie
The90kwbeast

What about people that are 1/16th or 1/32nd aboriginal and claiming all that gravy train

Jam

Fully legit?

Where I do sign up?

Gouda

Interesting – had thought that Work for the Dole was only reserved for those who couldn’t do any of the other activities. Can remember reading about an AUWU person who wanted money for doing SFA, outright refused everything and ended up on the scheme.

DictatorDavid

They just raised the single parenting cut off from 8 to 14, so that’s good free money for all those single parents…

Ramjet

Isn’t the picture from Sim City? Looks very late 90s.

ThePensum

yeah and to be fair to that guy – he was the “roads” advisor” – if you did hold back on his funding, the roads would collapse and deteriorate. I found it the worst outcome. better to reduce the funding to the police and firemen. nevermind if godzilla came walking on.

Freddy

There must be some housing affordability measures to pump up house prices even further.

Govt already announced first home buyers can team up with the FHOG. Maybe they will allow them to team up on the shared-equity scheme as well. Govt would end up buying 80% of the property, and guaranteeing the loan on the remaining 20%. That would be peak EZFKA.

Last edited 10 months ago by Freddy
Gouda

Definitely. When we think they’ve done when it comes to boosting property, there’s always another surprise just around the corner.

Ramjet

They still have plenty of tricks up their sleeves. I didn’t think they would do 400k NOM, but here we are.

Coming

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12013877/Jeffrey-Morgan-overcame-upbringing-Block-Sydneys-Redfern-launched-Cut-Bullshit.html

the disastrous negative-reinforcement of public housing

happy to see that he made it out by becoming a motivational speaker/racial grifter

Drago

But racism..!!!

That story is a pisser, says they can’t get housing due to racism then proceeds to detail how his Indigenous family are drug addicts, Paedos, etc. and destroy their own homes with graffiti and rubbish.

The white-hating middle class laps it up, and the race grifters just get richer off us.

Pure racism.

Ramjet

We’ll get to know what the target population increase is and that is about all.

The media will do their winners and losers thing. Get a few more clicks, but that is about all.

No1

They’ll give us an official number that will allow Fairfax to rend its garments over how it’s too low and will result in a shrunken flaccid pale male stale Australia

Then we’ll get 3x that

OzCuck

Oooo daily mail such gravitas and respectability.

Coming

https://twitter.com/boulware_dr/status/1655223114987364355?s=46&t=XWparf2b0A7kfSxojCYcTw

why have cookers not yet latched on to metformin?

also cheap and out of patent

Proven efficacy unlike ivermectin

OzCuck

I don’t pay that much attention. All I know is that jabbies are faggot morons.

OzCuck

Don’t downvote me bitch. Go back to reddit. You reddit faggot.

Stewie

I popped metaformin for a while (nearly 5yrs?) – as a prophylaxis for so many age related diseases. Only stopped because my offshore pharmacy shut up shop during COVID and I couldn’t be fucked finding another… gained weight since I stopped 🙁

Last edited 10 months ago by Stewie
Coming

are you a boomer

Stewie

Lol – nah mid 1970s. Just interested in Metaformin and that it increased the life expectancy of people with type 2 diabetes to above the average life expectancy of people without the disease.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/08/140807215552.htm

I want to live well in my senescence

robert2013

Really interesting. Thanks for sharing.

Stewie

Cheers – it is something that I found interesting too. It triggered an autistic response in me, in terms of deep diving and digging into the research and available information for months and in the end I decided on the balance of probabilities it probably did more good than the tiny risks present.

I didn’t take a high dose which is up to 2500mg a day, I think I took 250mg or a 1/10th of that high does in the morning only. I found it acted as a good appetite suppressant even into the evening – I just ate less, put smaller portions on my plate and didn’t feel the inclination to go back for seconds.

The theory also dovetailed with my beliefs around the roll of sugar and seed oils in causing inflammation in the body, and inflammation increasing as you age. The benefits in the studies were statistically significant, across some cancers and heart disease (not withstanding the small evidence of adverse impact in some men). But the fact it raised the average life expectancy of people with Type 2 Diabetes above the average life expectancy of the general population spoke loudly.

Side effects were mainly in the initial stages, for a week or so, mild stomach discomfort, but as I was on a very low dose I barely noticed it. There have been some studies that suggest heart problems with men taking it – very tiny percentages, on par with the risks of taking AZ (imo) however the positive impacts imho far outweighed those risks.

If you are a big drinker of alcohol and have kidney issues then there can be other risks, but as I have neither and was taking a low dose I didn’t see that as a problem.

My intention was to gradually up the doseage to 500g when I turned 50, but COVID came along and got in the way and due to the difficulty in getting it online stopped taking it. Now that it has returned to my consciousness I might investigate taking it again.

I’ve never bothered mentioning it and doubt I ever will again, unless someone else raises it… it can seem a bit crazy to self medicate until you dig into it… while it is fine for one crazy person to do it to himself it becomes a problem when they start preaching their craziness. Same with my opinion on the Vaxs, I have them, if questioned I’ll justify them, but by and large I don’t partake in those conversations.

Chuckmuscle

Paging Coming:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/05/garnaut-cut-immigration-and-build-dwellings-to-fix-rent-crisis/

“For housing and electricity prices and their large contributions to [inflation] and community concern, raising interest rates does more to raise than to lower prices”,

He is obviously correct.
But according to most of the lunatics on this site, all the poor people have all the cash and so benefit more from higher rates. Wot?

Coming

We discussed it last article , but nobody was willing to accept a professor might know more than them or Tarric booker

average iq here is in the double digits I doubt they will ever grasp any of this

Aussie Soy Boy

If we made the cash rate 0% it would lower the cost of living, lower demand, lower house prices, lower economic activity?

Better yet make the cash rate -2% we can lower demand even more lol.

Fucking cooked.

Coming

If we made IOR 0% and the govt paid zero interest on its debt , it would be disinflationary

both of those things are literally printing money and expanding the money supply

im tired of trying to explain this to you though

Last edited 10 months ago by Coming
The90kwbeast

Best post you’ve done

Gouda

Being unable to convince people with a supposedly low IQ to come around to your viewpoint isn’t the win you think it is.

Coming

Nah it definitely is

robert2013

It’s not worth it.

Coming

https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=60811

boj overnight rate -0.1%
ycc with 10yr at 0%
inflation rate 4th lowest in the world at 3.2% and falling

things that make you go hmmm

muh Taylor rule
muh interest must be higher than inflation

Last edited 10 months ago by Coming
Chuckmuscle

I actually think the BOJ will come out of this looking pretty good. They won’t have panic raised rates, or ended ycc. Just sit back, relax and watch the global impulse wash over them, without causing an unnecessary financial crisis.
Meanwhile we in the West can all wonder how higher rates led to a wider budget deficit 🧐🤔

Coming

The country that did QE and ycc on a scale that makes the others look like Austrians

have the lowest inflation rate

Hilarious

Everyone here completely convinced that the bom and DoH and media are liars/idiots

but Kochie and bubble-o-Phil definitely know what they’re talking about when it comes to central banking

No1

The perks of having a geriatric society. Japan’s best move was crashing their economy in the 90s so their Boomers never got to be rich.

Peachy

well, I’m glad that coming has at least one groupie 😀

Coming

Prof Garnaut makes two

Chuckmuscle

Not groupie, but would be better than being a neo kenysian RBEZFKA sycophant like yourself.

I’ve been on this train for years, about 2013 was when I was converted took a while to undo indoctrination received at uni, but what really did it for me was the QE is going to lead to inflation everywhere letter by all the nobels that totally failed to materialise.

Always thought Milton Friedman was a monetarist idiot, but his saying that low rates are a sign of tight money and high rates loose money is spot on.

Coming

its really interesting to me that this group of people who self-identifies as skeptics and “free thinkers”

is willing to challenge orthodoxy and mainstream mantra in every other area (climate change, covid, jabs, immigration etc)

but absolutely refuses to for this
even in the face of decades of evidence and the mainstream being consistently wrong

I would have thought that they would jump on this, but no – they are violently resistant

I think its probably wishful-thinking, I want to buy a house crowd – the only way they can ascend to the elevated economic/social position that they think they deserve
its the MB phenomenon

they want it to be one way, but its the other way

No1

The phantom decades of evidence which are actually solely Japan, a country with shit demographics which has been in economic decline for 30 years

It’s time to accept that the world has changed since the post-GFC and you can’t bring back that world by setting the IOR to 0%

I also don’t understand why you think you have an anti-establishment view when the establishment did all it could to keep interest rates at 0% until inflation became impossible to ignore.

Last edited 10 months ago by No1
Coming

20 years of QE in the USA

that would count as decades

Peachy

Here we often also talk about distributional aspects, power relationships and culture.

a gloss on what has been done in US and elsewhere is that QE has been pumped into banks and the financial “economy”. Wall Street not Main Street.

the distributional effects are important. When you print say $500b, you don’t just prin $500b. The effects are different if:

  • you print $500b and bury it in Yellen’s backyard forever
  • you print $500b and lent it interest free for a decade to some bank mates
  • you print $500b and buy assets
  • you print $500b and give it to Bill Gates
  • yoi print $500b and give it to Warren Buffett
  • you print $500b and spread it around the general population
No1

Zero percent interest rates and QE taught governments that they could spend as much money as they wanted and it would never be a problem.

We saw the full effect of that lesson when COVID happened and governments pumped unbelievably stupid levels of stimulus, with a big part going to the parts of the population that needed the money least.

Those people will keep inflation pumping for years to come.

No1

It would actually be 15 years since QE didn’t start in 2004.

And yeah, you can get away with much more stimulus when the economy is recovering from a massive economic shock.

That’s completely different from your recommendation to always have 0% interest rates no matter what.

Japan had high inflation too until their economy went into a depression.

IMO though you’ve just shifted your trolling from racial trolling to economics trolling and this discussion is just as pointless as the previous ones.

Peachy

japan has consistently performed as well or better on per capita gdp growth than even australia has i believe, despite no immigration

the way people talk about japan’s so-called economic decline you would think it’d be a third world country by now, then you go there and whoops it’s better than basically every other country

correct and beautifully put.

the only thing that Japan has been missing is the seemingly fashionalble aesthetic of “number go up”

instead, they’ve all been leading comfortable and productive lives. Peaceful and crime free for the most part too.

only it’s a bit shit there for the local women… but, from another perspective, perhaps it’s why they’ve been able to get by so well as a society? (cue Stewie’s input on allowing people with neuroticism and openness and shit near the important levers)

Coming

japan does not pay interest on government debt

it does not give a free kick to grifters and banks

you see it as a model society

BUT disagree with their monetary policy?

Last edited 10 months ago by Coming
Gruppenführer Mark

stagmal,

Japan as a country and a homogeneous society does have its good sides. Unfortunately, they also have some real issues.

Some time ago I came across a series of articles by the German philologist, Thorsten J. Pattberg on Japan, in which he talks about stuff that I wasn’t aware of. Maybe it will be of interest to you.

http://thesaker.is/japans-looking-at-10-million-hikikomori/

http://thesaker.is/after-77-years-of-us-occupation-half-of-japanese-girls-deformed/

http://thesaker.is/japan-and-other-social-evils-the-horrors-of-going-to-school-in-a-high-iq-society/

Peachy

And they treat their women poorly

Gruppenführer Mark

In all honesty, I haven’t perceived Japan as a place that treats its women poorly. I know that they are more aligned along their cultural norms, i.e. women keep the house, men work.

I’ll need to look into this.

No1

Shit demographics in the sense that if you wanted economic growth, you wouldn’t set your country’s average age to 50

But yeah I agree that the phrase does smack of open borders bullshit. Japan should give its population an opportunity to have kids, not import a zillion Pakistanis.

Peachy

Not groupie, but would be better than being a neo kenysian RBEZFKA sycophant like yourself.

I’ve been on this train for years, about 2013 was when I was converted took a while to undo indoctrination received at uni, but what really did it for me was the QE is going to lead to inflation everywhere letter by all the nobels that totally failed to materialise.

Always thought Milton Friedman was a monetarist idiot, but his saying that low rates are a sign of tight money and high rates loose money is spot on.

but mister, isn’t “neo Keynesian RBEZFKA sycophant” a bit harsh?!

there is too much at play in these systems to declare almost anything as a universal truth. best we can really do is rules of thumb that are mostly true for certain localised ranges of conditions. When you move outside those ranges, you’d better be prepared to change your mind and rule of thumb.

I can certainly accept that there are situations where rates are low and money is tight or rates are high and money is loose. These situations are easy to imagine, when you start considering dimensions other than demand for credit at different price levels (ie “would I rather borrow at high rates or low rates”) but also

  • supply of credit
  • volume of outstanding credit
  • real interest rates (rather than only nominal)
  • the fact that economies have multiple sectors (ezfka excluded) which are not all synchronised
  • distributional factors
  • etc

there are also obviously various leads and lags in the system. So it’s quite possible that rates are presently low because money had been tight, or the other way around, in sequence.

eg on this:

but what really did it for me was the QE is going to lead to inflation everywhere letter by all the nobels that totally failed to materialise.

perhaps all that QE did finally lead to all the inflation that is apparent, it just took longer?

Last edited 10 months ago by Peachy
Coming

perhaps all that QE did finally lead to all the inflation that is apparent, it just took longer?

lmao

cope harder

and the country that did the most and the longest QE had the least inflation?

And the inflation only started when the entire world was shutdown unnecessarily

but yeah I’m sure it was the QE

No1

Yes, the country that was in a fucking depression, with awful demographics, had the least inflation.

Coming

and also the united states

and europe

despite running QE

so what you are saying is that QE is not inflationary

No1

QE is not inflationary if your economy is so bad that you would be in deflation if not for government spending.

Why don’t you pay any attention to the economic conditions of the post GFC period you fucking moron

Is it because you’re trolling?

Coming

its amazing that somebody could be this deliberately obtuse

so what you’re saying is that QE didn’t cause inflation because the economy was “too bad”

then all of a sudden, when all production was shutdown globally, QE miraculously started being inflationary?

because shutting down global production improved the economy so immeasurably, that QE started working

you realise how retarded you sound right?

No1

Completely 100% different economic problems

Which you know

Because you are trolling

Peachy

Because you are trolling

but he must do this, otherwise he wouldn’t be good at it, due to being out of practice.

it’s a positive public service, though, because comings prodding helps everyone get their thoughts into proper and concise order

Gouda

The problem is that he’s not really that good in that when it gets too obvious, the impact is lost. Also the tendency to lapse into personal insults means the temperament required isn’t quite there.

Coming has also had the same MO since embee – i.e. post the same thing ad nauseum. Almost has the same effect as the guy there who only posts NZ links – easy to scroll past.

Coming

so QE has never caused inflation, but it could?

is that your position

No1

It has caused inflation

It just wasn’t a problem while Japan was in a depression, or while the US and Europe were in massive recessions in the late 2000s/early 2010s.

It lasted way past when it should have, like most government handouts. It started really doing damage during the pandemic

Coming

you are absolutely delusional

No1

That’s well below your usual standards of trolling

The NSW taxpayer expects much better trolling during your working hours

Coming

when the RBA put interest rates up a surprise 0.25 last tuesday

all yields jumped right out to 10 year

yields going up suggests inflationary concerns, no?

if the rba lifting rates was DISinflationary then long yields should have fallen, no?

what do you think bond yields would be if the RBA paid 0% IOR?

Last edited 10 months ago by Coming
Peachy

when the RBA put interest rates up a surprise 0.25 last tuesday

all yields jumped right out to 10 year

yields going up suggests inflationary concerns, no?

changes to the risk-free rate flow through to most other rates. Because there are transmission mechanisms.

what do you think bond yields would be if the RBA paid 0% IOR?

https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/how-rba-implements-monetary-policy.html
the transmission mechanism would operate with somewhat different outcomes

Coming

if IOR was 0, then the overnight rate would be zero because there are excess ES balances in the banking system

But what im asking is what do you think 1-10yr yields would be

also zero?

changes to the risk-free rate flow through to most other rates. Because there are transmission mechanisms.

so changes to the risk free rate increase both the quantity and the velocity of money?

and the velocity of money determines inflation?

Last edited 10 months ago by Coming
Peachy

if IOR was 0, then the overnight rate would be zero because there are excess ES balances in the banking system

If IOR was zero, short term rates might be expected to drift somewhat lower because the IOR acts kind of like a floor (ie why would you lend to anyone below that rate, when you can get IOR rate risk free from RBA?).

but the banks would want to minimise ES balances obviously (you want as little of your balance sheet as possible earning zero), so the real question would be around what mechanism RBA would make available to facilitate this reduction

But what im asking is what do you think 1-10yr yields would be

short end might be a bit lower. Out at 10yrs, I don’t think you’d see all that much difference.

Coming

no if IOR was 0 , overnight rate would be zero

because there is an excess of ES balances due to QE and regulatory changes
That is why they HAVE to pay IOR – otherwise it stay at 0

short end might be a bit lower. Out at 10yrs, I don’t think you’d see all that much difference.

so what you’re saying is that the free market only demands 2-3% interest on govt bonds
in other words, that is where the market’s inflation expectations are (below 2-3%)

and the RBA lifting IOR serves to either
A) increase those inflationary expectations
B) increase the premium required over inflation
C) both

all while increasing government deficits

Peachy

so what you’re saying is that the free market only demands 2-3% interest on govt bonds

in other words, that is where the market’s inflation expectations are (below 2-3%)

no, you’re saying that. I am saying what I wrote.

that is, at the margin, there’s be some more demand for short term paper of various (pushing yields lower), because earning something is better than earning zero.

Coming

please answer the question

if the IOR was 0

what would 1-10yr yields be?

Peachy

please answer the question

if the IOR was 0

what would 1-10yr yields be?

what would it feel like if we were all suddenly turned inside-out?

Coming

I can tell you the answer if you like

long term yields would all fall

JimsCentralBanking

what would it feel like if we were all suddenly turned inside-out?

Probably not good. But it would solve the racial problems.

Freddy

You are asking a hypothetical question of how the market would react if RBA was to do the opposite of what they have been doing historically, and drop rates to zero during a period of high inflation.

IMO the 10-year rate would rise dramatically in expectation of even higher inflation. That is unless RBA started buying up all the bonds, and then I suspect RBA would be forced to backtrack via collapsing AUD.

Last edited 10 months ago by Freddy
Coming

so the 10yr goes up because the RBA lifted rates unexpectedly
but would also go up if they dropped rates unexpectedly?

Freddy

Yes. As you say the bond market is responding to inflation expectations.

Yield curve inverts when the market thinks rates are too high and will result in a recession. You can’t have it both ways.

Coming

yield curve inverted a long time ago

the point is – RBA rises in IOR are pro-inflationary

Gruppenführer Mark

Freddy,

Yes, exactly what has been happening in Japan – the government buying its bonds

https://www.statista.com/statistics/756192/japanese-government-bonds-by-type-of-holders/

JimsCentralBanking

I actually think the BOJ will come out of this looking pretty good. They won’t have panic raised rates, or ended ycc. Just sit back, relax and watch the global impulse wash over them, without causing an unnecessary financial crisis.

Their situation is very different. Japan has had -5% real wage growth over the last 20 years vs. +80% real wage growth in the US over the same period.

They have low inflation despite ycc and QE, not because of it.

Drago

All cops are soft cocks, SOG only ever hit from behind as the Melb Covid riots showed. Cowards across the force.

Any reason why cops are weak pricks when their Vic Pol head does this?

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/victoria-police-chief-shane-patton-apology-to-indigenous-after-century-of-harm/news-story/a765fa93bf6e715c1c42bfa3e756fbed?amp&nk=58905787f10e9c52585d19002490796d-1683536246

Drago

“I had no idea a speech was going to be made,” Drumgold told a public inquiry into the handling of the trial. “I accept I entirely misread the situation … I thought this was someone telling me they were up for an award.”

Seriously how the fuck does this guy even get to be Chief Prosecutor if he makes such a fuck up…?

https://www.theage.com.au/national/dpp-misread-situation-ahead-of-lisa-wilkinson-s-controversial-logies-speech-20230508-p5d6ik.html

OzCuck

I have a few k I’d like to invest into I’m not sure yet. Maybe an ETF, maybe more silver, maybe a food stock because I have no food in my portfolio. My local KFC goes off, owned by Collins Foods but they also have Taco Bell which is shit and probably a burden. How else do you make money off fat bastards? Everything they wanna do… eat, watch tv, cruises, probably has high input costs and small profits.

I think I’m gonna put myself into the stay in cash because there will be a crash towards the end of the year camp.

What do you guys reckon?

Coming

Buy a house you stupid poor faggot

OzCuck

Go get your 5th jab. Life without jabbies sounds really good.

https://twitter.com/SallyMayweather/status/1655268287519899650?s=20

No1

Investing based on your local KFC 😂

Gruppenführer Mark
OzCuck

Rashays is essentially Sizzler. But you get to make a muzzie rich so you get some woke feelz.

OzCuck

How many boomer wogs are there? Do white micks have big funerals? So much work all this analysis shit.

Gruppenführer Mark

It’s not only the boomer wogs. It is all the death stare grandmas that are going to be imported.

Stewie

In a world of equality of the sexes I will have to remember this move if I ever start losing a fight with a chick:

https://twitter.com/FightHaven/status/1655376974842408962

A fly in your ointment

The latest indisputable indicator of Global Warming effects and symptoms:

Dartmouth scientist have settled that the GW causes more baseball home runs

I’m going off-line ti go and buy a Muskeratti Model S

No1

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-09/victorian-government-offers-tower-lockdown-settlement/102319922

Why was this lockdown a rights violation but the wider lockdowns weren’t?

It seems to be the rule in modern “democracies” that if you brutalise or impoverish one person, that’s bad, but if you do it to the entire population, that’s just making the hard but necessary decisions.

Gruppenführer Mark

So, $5M settlement. $2M to lawyers. 3,000 people at $1,000 per resident.

That’s one way to keep the dole bludgers dole bludging

Coming

Interesting to listen to this collision between mmt god Warren mosler , and Australian propertyologist and MB-darling Catherine Cashmore

https://landcycleinvestor.fattail.com.au/the-land-story-behind-inflation-stagflation-that-so-many-fail-to-see/

she reckons prices boom “into” 2026 and bust “into” 2028

Whatever into means

Peachy

Blast from the past

too soon!

No1

Imagine if someone died because Coming is too busy trolling this site instead of practicing medicine as he supposedly does

Peachy

—1 for the population would probably be a good thing.

but shit if it was someone you know

No1

Looking forward to his economic cookerisms ending up in the court transcript

Honestly Coming probably won’t be the first person to kill someone else out of anger at interest rate rises

No1

Yeah he’d definitely be one of those highly autistic ones

OzCuck

Based.

Wish I’d become a builder. Just build an apartment block and fill it with poos and you’re rich.

OzCuck

I hope they remake Back to the Future and have lots of poos in it.

emusplatt

mitchell on cb being jerks

https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=60811

Peachy

mitchell on cb being jerks

bill is a standard “lower teh rates, that’ll fix thing” softcock.

the RBA indicated that around 15 per cent of Australian households will not have sufficient cash reserves or income to remain solvent after the interest rates rose again yesterday

So first the RBA set about destroying what saving buffers people had built up, claiming that would allow them to keep spending as their liquidity was being undermined by the interest-rate rises.

Then the RBA admitted it was deliberately seeking to increase unemployment by around 180 thousand workers who will be forced onto unemployment benefits which are way below the poverty line and the federal government refuses to increase the payments.

And finally, the RBA is fully aware that around 20 per cent of mortgage holders will be driven broke by its interest rate rises if not more.

Yeh, so? What kind of moron would expect interest rate rises to have any consequences unless they actually impact people’s circumstances and financial capacity.

.

.
to be balanced – on the plus side, he seems to have accurately identified that Japan is not the same as USA, though. indeed, he seems to have a good understanding of this
and the role that culture plays

The monetary institutions are the same – but culture dictates the choices we make

well done bill.

Last edited 10 months ago by Peachy
Stewie

Bill takes the EZFKA pill….

Culture Matters.

Coming

Fucking lol I already posted this exact link on this page

you continue your streak of pointless links with no context

Coming

will the abc have the balls to report on this tbh

Coming

what the fuck was drumgold wearing today

he looks the weird cop from law and order svu

Aussie Soy Boy

I had her figured out from day one.

Coming

plus she had a different boyfriend at the time of the “rape”, plus a different boyfriend at the time of the trial

she has had a very long ride on the cock carousel indeed

Advice for young incels: get a job in canberra

Last edited 10 months ago by Coming
Aussie Soy Boy

January last year but I was writing similar things in 2021 when it came out.

Big Brit is going to (kangaroo) court and we’ll see what the defence has to say in court. We’ll find out how pissed she was, I’m sure CCTV will tell us if she was voluntarily in Parliament, whether she was lucid enough to pass through heavy security at 2am with a man who wasn’t her boyfriend, whether she got naked herself (she’s a big girl would be somewhat difficult to completely remove the clothes from a passed out body on a couch)

Not sure Big Brit wants the attention as much as to save her career by crying rape otherwise she’s would have been known in Canberra as that heavyset staffer who got pissed and woke up stark naked in Parliament, which is bad for your career when you’re one of those ultra ambitious types like Brit seems to be.

OzCuck

All this incel obsession is gay. If someone rooted a 200kg ham beast they would cease to be an incel, and therefore have more social standing than an incel.

Coming

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fuck can somebody embed

Last edited 10 months ago by Coming
OzCuck

So much for bogans. Even the rich Anglo Libs have become genetic sewage.

Drago

He’s gay, right?

E2926FA5-C55D-4CDB-8D3A-C2C295E90F3F.jpeg
Aussie Soy Boy

I hope everyone is having an enjoyable Victory Day and remembering those heroes who defeated Nazism.

Not like those Vietnam War cowards we saw marching on ANZAC Day. How they can even show their faces on ANZAC Day disgusts me. The hide on them.

OzCuck
Drago

Fuck me you are pathetic, no one cares faggot.

Gruppenführer Mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MZyE-UEG1Y

Start at 22:15 and watch about 15 seconds.

Make sure you remember who defeated nazism!

They updated the video. The segment starts at 2:05

Stewie

She looks like a Golliwog – with the ridiculous Jewish obsession with Afrocentrism I can understand why they went out of favour.

Aussie Soy Boy

You might get an extra $20 per week.

Aussie Soy Boy

Quite smart. Give the dole bludgers $20 per week more, take it back by increasing smokes by $5 per pack. Great move

Sucked in smokers. Time to give the cancer sticks away.

The extra $20 per week for the dole is a nice bonus for my dream of LARPing as a dole bludger for 12 months.

OzCuck

I went to the dodgy durry place again today, paid no tax. Feels good man. I’d hate to give a cent to your wanky little hapa kid. I’m assuming you have a chink wife, and you’re gonna shit out a faggot little kid that works for AirBnB or some shit.

Aussie Soy Boy

Someone needs to dob these places in. Go in there with a hidden camera.

OzCuck

Surplus of hapa IT fags. Yeah thanks for the doctors, lawyers, and finance fags I didn’t need either. Because white people had already sufficed that need when you were farming bok choy in your muddy little plots.

Coming

Fuck I think you’re directly over the target

that makes a lot of sense actually

OzCuck

Why are you even surprised about my superior intellect? Faggot.

Stewie

Interesting to see who is behind the success of ‘Ordinals’ currently clogging the BTC network…

https://twitter.com/B2029org/status/1655611301412982784

They still have plenty of left over tokens on BSV from their old enterprises.

Drago

Mosman land.

RE is back baby!

OzCuck

Lol lol.

Typical “smart” legacy Australian. Just a faggot clerk with some disgusting fat bitch wife.

Lol lol.

9d719e459a966d9f8beba7c0795b25a2.jpg
Aussie Soy Boy

What’s with Aussies and their dogs. Peak dog culture.

Feeding two big dogs costs a fortune, but wouldn’t come close to feeding the missus. Look at the size of that unit.

No1

Indeed, human food costs more than dog food

Drago

What a strange way to say she’s the type of fat bitch who rejected you a million times on your youth.

You’ve got an issue with owning dogs now? Fark that’s sad.

OzCuck

Enjoy your 20 buckers suckers.

1558407639954_HERO.jpg
Drago

I love it when the Suckups refer to him as Dr…

Fuckin Arts degree at a 2nd rate Uni, then wrote a story about Paul Keating for a “PHD”.

Absolute fraud was raised as Catholic (like many shameless grifters do for the cheap high quality education) then baptised his 3 kids as Catholic as well.

Married a Labor staffer, while he was a ‘Researcher’ to a Labor Premier post Uni, so basically no one in his house has ever had a real proper job.

Will be the first to jump on the Trans rights or whatever band wagon gets him elected rather than take a personal stand on any beliefs, like those from his Catholic upbringing say.

He’s no more a Doctor than that fat cunt Dave O’Neill is a comedian.

Feels great that he’s the Treasurer…

OzCuck

>raised as Catholic 
They’re such nauseating phonies. That black, opportunistic, stand for nothing look in the eye. They can use condoms now that they’ve outbred all the other whites. How convenient.

banana man

Your karma just ran over Stewies dogma

Stewie

There be lots of blank eye stares, but in the end he acknowledges my dogma “They’ve outbred all the other whites” That is the name of the game, everything in modern progressive liberal Western culture views that as abhorrent.

Aussie Soy Boy

Should spend some of that budget surplus on new chiclets.

Fucked up, nasty grill.

OzCuck

Durry tax to subsidise arts degree wog moot.

1b8cc466f188e7def16d865f915c3726.jpg
banana man

Bloke looks like sleepy joe with all that hair sucking.