Most commentary I’ve been following says that an American recession is on the cards, but they argue about its depth. Nouriel Roubini (https://nourielroubini.com/a-stagflationary-debt-crisis-looms/) says that the world is in deep shit….but he always says that. I think it’s too early to call inflation baked in. We’re only just exiting the post-covid boom…and China is just starting theirs. Some think there’s every chance that we’ll be back to deflation before too long (e.g. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/checkmate-situation-zoltan-pozsar-says-fed-will-restart-qe-summer-2023). I quite liked this at MB https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/01/albo-has-smashed-energy-inflation-and-rate-hikes/. Home grown Australian inflation may no longer a force to be reckoned with.
If inflation heads south so do interest rates, so buying bonds now makes sense. My sense about equities is that too many businesses are doing woke things that do not add any value to anyone anywhere (eg Channel 10). Business’ efforts at being woke are destroying value all over the place. The more they try to be “moral” and “lead society” the less sucessful they are at whatever they do. Jesus said it best: “No man can serve two masters: for either he will hate the one, and love the other; or else he will hold to the one, and despise the other. Ye cannot serve God and mammon.”
Whatever your moral views, businesses may be legal persons, but they are not actual persons. Any attempt to attribute moral behaviour to a business is to pretend that a machine can make moral judgements. If we are going to do that, then the limited liability company should be abolished. Let CEOs take the credit and take the fall for all their moral decision making. I bet none of them will stick their hand up for that.