Those bloody MB guys seem to never learn.
As they stare at decades of obvious and well documented action-consequence situations.
As they ignore everything written in even the most basic beginner-level finance books.
Even as they personally pen the headlines that plainly paint the picture….they can’t quite make out the shape of things!
The shape of things that says “interest rates dictate asset price levels for any given level of supply”.
And again up goes the cry of “lower teh rates/print teh money/fiscal stimulus” , moderated only by the same tired, weak bleating of MPLOL.
Those fucken guys! The only minor saving grace is that they seem to have finally given up the “pushing on a string” stupidity.
So, has anything changed recently, or is anything about to change? Let us canvass the landscape:
- Election is coming up
- borders about to be opened (could outflows be greater than inflows??)
- Iron ore is high, but not as high as it has been recently
- covid is no longer a thing (in the minds of most normal people)
- homebuilder supply lump coming online soon
- astrological omens are poor
For mine, the key thing to watch is the dynamics about border reopening. Whether there is a rush out or a rush in will determine the short-to-medium term trajectory.
I can imagine there being a net outflow out in the short term, to be followed by the resumption of Normal patterns (inflows on a sustained basis).