The forces at play in the housing market


Ownership market

  1. Cost of materials, skilled labour and interest rates driving construction firms out of business. Interest rates probably the biggest factor.
  2. Investors are holding back due to interest rate fears.
  3. Wages are stagnant again except in top tier of employment market due to low skill mass migration, coupled with higher rates. This means the masses can’t bid up housing.
  4. One of the world’s easiest money laundering setups remains Australian housing. How much loss can money launderers wear as a transaction cost? Will their money keep coming?

Rental market

  1. Epic overseas migration driving massive shortage of rentals
  2. People with few or no children occupying more space
  3. Unoccupied dwellings (associated with Chinese buyers, money launderers) are still around. Does anyone have a read on this?
  4. Rents are included in inflation figures. Do you think Labor knows this? If NOM continues to drive rents to the stratosphere, high rents may not rescue the property market. Instead they will feed back into inflation forcing rates to follow. This will make investors even more scared. Maybe a few will go bust if the rate of rent increase doesn’t keep up with interest rate rises. This is likely since most investors are highly leveraged. Each % of interest rate rise requries a much greater % of rental rate rise to keep rental yields static.
  5. Increasing rental costs may also attenuate employment since a signficant number ofpeople will not have as much money to spend on other things, causing downstream businesses to suffer.

I don’t have a read on the weights of each of these factors or a model that can combine them. My gut feeling is that rates will resume rising after a lull caused by the Chinese resumption of production following the end of COVID zero and the working out of how to ship cheap Russian oil. But…there are100s of millions of people in India and China getting more skilled and wealthier and demanding more, including vast amounts of hydrocarbon. They won’t need to sell to the west as much. The pressure on supply chains will not let up. Prices are not done rising.

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I think rates will keep going up for at least another 6 months. Even if they don’t, they are likely to stay where they are for a long time. I seriously can’t see rates falling back to 0.1% as fast as they’ve gone up over the last 9 months or so.

This means that the vast crowd of idiots on low incomes who have huge mortgages obtained at record low rates are likely to be spending at least the next few years being financially smashed by the current rates. A few will be forced to sell. The majority will hang on grimly, and put every penny into the repayments. This will eliminate discretionary spending for lots of people, resulting in a big hit to retail sales, pubs cafes etc. There will be lots of Jetskis and giant TVs for sale.

Anecdotally, we went to our local watering hole for a few beers and a pizza last night. This place is normally chockers, but last night, and the last few times we’ve been there, it was moderately busy. There were free tables and no need to queue at the bar. It’s been noticeable to the point that I’ve mentioned it to the missus.

Slowing trade at one pub isn’t conclusive evidence, but I’ve seen similar at another place we go to regularly. That’s two data points, so my theory above is proven beyond doubt.

Agent 47

Melbourne can easily survive with about 1/10th cafes and restaurants it has now so good. Surely Andrews will just put that on the credit card though.


Will add a few more data points in support. Was out at my old stomping ground to get a haircut, while waiting took a walk around to see what was on offer for a feed.

For reference, it’s a moderately sized 3 storey compound, has a Coles/WW/Aldi, JBHifi, movie theatre, gym and a bowling alley. 

On the food/beverage side, it’s pretty been carnage, with 21 out of 36 closing, and only 6 sites having been re-leased or rebranded.

Closed (15)
Greek souvlaki
American diner
Sichuan Hot Pot
Bubble tea
Café: independent
Poke Bowls
Portuguese Chicken
Hot Pot
Health food

Converted (6)
Korean BBQ -> Lebanese
TGIF -> Golf bar
Café: ?Coffee club – rebranded to another franchise
Café: franchise – rebranded – similar to above
Bakery -> Bubble tea
Bakery -> Vietnamese Bakery

Survived (15)
Sushi Train
Modern Australian
Sushi x2
Australian Chinese
Bakers Delight
Vietnamese – Pho
Sandwich/roasts shop
Coffee franchise x2

Agent 47

Off topic sort of but well played EZFKA Twitter


All fear the fixed rate cliff!

Anecdotally I also am noticing flight centre still busy near me with people booking school holiday getaways and no doubt their last July European holiday before TSHTF.

I think there is a lot of last hurrah activity happening which has just peaked.


Sounds like an EmBee fear campaign. So the number of expiries goes up 50% for several months. Yawn 🥱

Most people will afford the additional payments as most took advantage of cheap payments.



It’s the total figure though which the RBA quoted at 800k this year all going from 2-2.5% to 6%+, which is heaps if correct.

I agree many will battle through re: repayments but this will absolutely crush the lifestyles of those in particular with high LVRs or who own many IPs with offsetting huge debt. Might see some examples of forced sales at last and ideally the start of the last leg of this property cycle correction, another 10% would be nice.

This will also likely be the trigger that crushes inflation over this year.


agree many will battle through re: repayments but this will absolutely crush the lifestyles of those in particular with high LVRs or who own many IPs with offsetting huge debt. Might see some examples of forced sales at last and ideally the start of the last leg of this property cycle correction, another 10% would be nice. 

This will also likely be the trigger that crushes inflation over this year.

yeah, there’s no real way around this – the interest rates will suck a bunch of discretionary spend out of the economy and give it to the banks.

it’s how they’re meant to work.


but i dont get it when you giev it to the banks doesnt that just mean it goes to the people who own the banks. and then they just spend it on something else

why would overall discretionary spending go down

Last edited 19 hours ago by stagmal

Oh no, you’ve had a bit too much to think cobber


yeah quite so


 it goes to the people who own the banks. and then they just spend it on something else

why would overall discretionary spending go down

becaue it’s how they say it works but what it really does is reduce the size and volume of new loans creating money which reduces the rate of increase of the money supply.
To have this as the narrative would require alerting the sheeple to the fact the banks just get to create money from nothing…


You would have to look this up but most joe blow private ownership would be in super funds which most have no ability to access to spend, and otherwise then mostly very wealthy people and other banks owning other banks, in turn owned by wealthy people…

And since wealthy people are few in number and consume a small % of their income/wealth it’s deflationary


higher rates give free money (created from nowhere) to the banks in the form of IOR currently

it also gives free money to people who hold bank deposits (since each deposit is offset by an equal debt)

it also gives free money to buyers of government debt, and therefore increases government deficits all other things being equal

it increases both velocity of money, and the amount of base money

higher rates only works to deflate the money supply if “financial crisis” is allowed to roll on, and debts default

Which looks like may not be allowed to happen


Noticing the same in regards to spending near me. People are still cashed up and spending. Restaurants are still full and people are still going on holidays.

Rents are up over 10%, so landlords are doing well. Juicy dividends from many ASX companies. Spending ain’t going down from the asset owners who did very well out of Covid.


Not yet it isn’t – will be very, very interesting in another 4-6 months time per my comment above whether this is what breaks the inflation beast, and also likely barrels the country into recession. I’d give that a 3/4 chance of happening at this point.


Inflation accelerating in face of several hundred percent relative interest rate rises

at what point do you question the Mainstream narrative

more obtuse than the covid idiots


I’ve barely seen any businesses go under. People can still tap boomer parents plus immigrants live cheap anyway. For instance I hardly ever see them get takeaway.

Zoomies are fuggin screwed tho. I’d say that’s when people will start living like it’s the 70s again . But at least they’re not racist.

A fly in your ointment

It is not good for one’s mind and it is outright silly to try to seek logic and recognise natural flows in a market that is bent so much that would mesmerise even Slavador Dali in its twisted wicked appearance.

The only thing left to look for is force majeur which outside of warden class’ reach.

A fly in your ointment

“…..doesn’t mean that they SHOULD have been fully hedged. If you constantly buy insurance for a very rare event, you will lose money.”


if you constantly buy insurance for a very rare event, you will lose money.”

if you buy insurance you will lose money full stop, except for a very small % of people making claims. For an insurance company to remain profitable and in business premiums must be greater than payouts + operating expenses.
That is how insurance works.

Last edited 20 hours ago by emusplatt

There’s another force out there to add to your list. It’s something that I’ve wanted to write about but never got the time/motivation.

There’s a proliferation of home-support / home-nursing / home-feeding / similar grift services designed to keep ageing and disabled and frail people “in their homes” rather than aged care and similar facilities.

Basically the model is:

  • government pays through Commonwealth Home Support, NDIS, similar programs
  • filipino & similar home support staff are imported
  • nursing/support labor hire firms and agencies facilitate this and skim a good chunk of the funds
  • older people are kept in their big houses

it’s a solid leg to support the land price level.

the house-less pay three or four times over:

  • imported support staff undercut wages
  • imported support staff create housing demand (at least take up rentals)
  • frail who are kept in their home also keep the houses off the market for decades
  • all this is paid for by the taxes of the house-less

it Is EZFKA awesomeness


Excellent observation


I have some direct and immediate experience of this. My elderly Mum is undergoing Chemo for cancer and is very frail. She fell over the other day, and in attempting to lift her my Dad, who is also very old and frail, fractured a vertebrae.

So they’re both out of action and I flew to Ballina yesterday to take care of Mum while Dad is in hospital having his back seen to. It’s not good.

Anyway, this is Retirement Central, so there are a plethora of local support services for elderly people living at home. It may be different elsewhere, but all the drivers, carers, cleaners, meals-on-wheels people I’ve dealt with so far have been very kind round-eyes.

Not saying they’re not grifters, but at least they’re our grifters.


Anyway, this is Retirement Central, so there are a plethora of local support services for elderly people living at home. It may be different elsewhere, but all the drivers, carers, cleaners, meals-on-wheels people I’ve dealt with so far have been very kind round-eyes.

Not saying they’re not grifters, but at least they’re our grifters.

i think that’s the difference between
Ballina and Melbourne/Sydney.

and agree with the sentiment about our grifters being much better than imported grifters. At least the money stays here and creates jobs for the locals (rather than undercutting local wages, cranking housing demand and then flowing offshore).

Hope your folks are doing OK.


Make sure you get in early for the high level care packages for your folks.
Mine died before they got proper help.


You mentioned NDIS, that is Bill Shorten’s ticking time bomb that he will scuttle away from soon enough.

Alternatively he will politicise it like the ALP do for everything else, just like they said in Covid “fund it otherwise you’re killing Grandma!”. They will make it a culture war too, an Autistic kid needs NDIS support, unless that kid lives in a nice area then it’s clearly rorting the system.

Currently running on a budget of $36B, in Oct 2022 the AFR did a piece that said Shorten would see it blow out by $8.8B to $50B+ by 2026. Basically it will cost more than Medicare and Aged Care combined and then some.

As Kos Samaras says, we need mass immigration to feed that Ponzi scheme because our own birth rate won’t support our elderly etc. Twisted logic that is swallowed whole.

Some of my own anecdata, a mate has a child with very poor health prospects from birth, spends a fortune on carers and therapy. The kid won’t make her teens. He struggles with NDIS admin and approval so funds most himself. They do have a weekly visit from a Carer, who tells him she has another client who claims on the NDIS his ‘mental health’ therapy where her job consists of driving this POS to a brothel while she waits outside and drives him home afterwards.


Of course its what will happen. A privatised system provides all the profitable services and directs all the money there and ignores everything else. If you only have privatised services then you only have the profitable things done and everyone needing anything else misses out.


Why shouldn’t he use a brothel

better for his mental health and well-being than any other nonsense including SSRIs and psychologists which are on PBS/Medicare


It doesn’t surprise me that you would say that


free hookers wont help that much bc theres no validation

a lot of incels just wont go to them too


now toss in a spot of striesand effect….we’re in trouble


Just need Jim Cramer DLS to tell everyone to buy Australian banks. Then you can start shorting the banks.


have a look at this turd getting slapped in comments


Almost as badly as this turd Billy Bragg:

Ex Musician apparently but one hell of a deadshit clearly.


Who is this cunt

him and Stan grant sang a duet on Q+A last week

lmao at the absolute state of the ABC and this country generally

narcissism levels absolutely off the charts
thats what happens when everyone is forced to worship you I guess

Last edited 12 hours ago by Coming

Billy was great back in the 80s.i saw him several times at venues in Canberra. Memorable gigs. He was a great musician and wrote intelligent songs. He seems to be just another virtue signalling loony now.


Jeez, that poor bloke.

I came across an Americanism while working in Texas many years ago…TNB … Typical Nigger Bullshit. You see a story like this and automatically think “TNB”.


BWS is his traditional lands

Agent 47

Watching every single conservative and freedom influencer cuck out to the Israel lobby is pretty white and black pulling at the same time. Unsurprised.


Lethal red pilled on housing. Or he reads this site…

Unconventional EconomistMEMBER
March 20, 2023 at 4:48 pm
Nah mate. It’ll rocket. APRA will likely cut the mortgage buffer too, which means borrowing capacity will increase markedly.
Add record immigration, strong rental growth, and stunted housing supply into the mix and the ingredients are there for another price boom in 2024.
Sad but true

Ironic Boomer

Where is dls to yell at him APRA APRA APRA, for God sakes APRA! Just like he did during the covid RBA chicanery.

A fly in your ointment

where do you think rents can go?

500 bucks hardly gets a studio in most of the Sydney, average home is 800+ and apartments from 600 up.
a $60k salary will pay about 850/wk and frugal life cost 350-400 bucks for a person of about 50% more for 2. With families being destroyed, a single person can hardly survive unless on a 90k+ income and a single parent will need at least 6 digit. and when I say ” survive” I mean spending on only what is absolutely necessary.
Rents can not go past the physical limit of the income. my take is that another 10% increase in rents is theoretically possible before there is nothing left for discretionary spend.


My dear old Mum turned on the TV to watch The Drum, which is the stupidest shit show in our galactic arm.

15 minutes of blathering about Nazis, and the amazingly amazing threat they pose to Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, the world and the universe, after 15 fuckheads do a bit of larping in Melbourne last weekend.

Fuck me gently, I’ve never seen such idiotic pretentious, pompous virtue signalling in my entire life.


12 blokes in black Stubbies from the local gym playing games is a massive danger, massive, just look at the stats…

unless of course you look at the facts. You’d be lucky to have 0.0001% of the crimes on the same day as African gangs (“youth crime”) from these silly lads. Hence why Vic Pol just let them walk on by.

Funny that Dan Andrews had a legislative change all ready to go on Monday morning. Great timing or huuuge coincidence?


Is it a bit odd that they all looked like fags

tanned, super lean , gay haircuts

I would have thought a neo nazi group would be more manly

whoever is in charge of ezfka seems to be fully demented going after people calling this a psyop but it certainly has January 6 vibes to me


hes saying that conservatives and right wing types have a tendency to call everyone double agents or police plants etc

which is true

the FBI invented this tactic in the 1970s to confuse people its called bad jacketing

if everyone in a political organisation is actually a plant i.e not real then theres no point in ever doing anything or taking action against the government

Agent 47

This exactly. Just because 90% of shit is a psy op doesn’t mean everything is. Calling everyone a fed is the same as the red guard calling everyone a traitor.

Sewell’s group have been around for a while and they’re legit. He’s been to prison a few times and they’re constantly raided by the feds.

My 2 cents is a heap of armchair critics having a dig at them calling them cringe but I have to give credit that they actually get out there and do shit. They shut down a drag queen story time the other month. Most people are just whinging online and hoping someone else does something and the lefties just act with impunity.

The worst part I’ve seen is literally all of Australia’s so called conservatives and lolberts instantly cuck to the Jewish lobby all over social media, even Bogut. We have the same issue with the ZOG as the US does, Mark Leibler even brags about it. Until they grow some balls the only hope to pull the Overton window back is super hard right – socially anyway, we already have libertarian economic policies on everything else except getting rid of the RBA.


why did they all look like they should have been on a Mardi Gras float

why did the cops let them straight through

why were they wearing identical wrist bands


tbh in all sincerity the real hitler youth looked a lot like these guys too

a lot of the earlier nazis like the SA-men (ernst rohm) actually were gay

they got purged by the SS though

Agent 47

They have an MMA gym in Sunbury and they train. If they’re fit they get called gay, if they’re out of shape they get called fat LARPers.

Cops didn’t want the optics of watching some femboys and trannies getting prison stomped by a few Hitler youth – I did though because that would have been hilarious.

They also don’t have the numbers to contain these kinds of events anymore due to recruitment being non existent and cops leaving left and right. They just focused on separating the groups and as usual the progressive crazies were trying to instigate from what I saw.


its more like 5% or less of these ppl are glowies

theres not enuff cops to be infiltrating these groups


January 6 was only two years ago

this was even more awkward and blatant than that

Agent 47

They usually have Abul Rizvi on.

Drum is just privileged white women agreeing with each other on who is the most retarded. Jane Caro takes that cake.


And .more wonderfulness from the ABC…Four Corners is doing a feature on Incels! Woot!


I cbf watching it but please let us know – are men blamed for everything?

if women actually fucked nice guys and not arrogant, bad boy chads we will have solved rape culture and the incel problem over night


yeah watch incels get blamed for rape, and not chads/football players etc who hang out at nightclubs smashing the booze who in reality do 99% of all raping in society

incel hate is just a subliminal impulse towards women hating weak, ugly men

incels arent really niec either lol theyre narcissists but they dont go around raping people by and large, thats thug phenotype territory

like jarrad hayne, is he incel

Last edited 11 hours ago by stagmal

i dont think i ever saw anyone talk about raping women on puahate once


It was just a load of incoherent fear mongering pompous bullshit with doomy music and lots of Qanon facemasks FFS. The worst nonsense I’ve ever seen.


did they interview anyone good like FaceandLMS

Ironic Boomer

Or we could just legalise both sides of prostitution, the buying and selling, remove artificial constraints on the market (within reason),remove the social shaming, increase the safety etc. It depends on how incel is defined, it a stupid term imo, seems to be just a well to be poisoned. If it’s about sex and sex can be bought there is no such thing as an incel.
However it feeds so many narratives. Feed them fear sell them security. It gasses up women’s egos and feeds into the competitiveness of the male npc automaton.


Pity they didn’t do a turn on Chingcells.
Cumming would be the spotlight


this documenrary isnt new its from 2018


Most unintentionally funny steaming turd of an article The Australian has published for a long time.

Mass immigration shill posts this shit, how great country Victoria was back in the day… when it was White !!!



White locals not even allowed to go to the beach anymore

the abo grift is absolutely out of control

Agent 47

My favourite is the hunting rules. They’re allowed to “traditionally hunt” with firearms, boats, gps and all the rest of the shit that they were obviously the pioneers of.


No one said these cucks favour any empirical evidence. They will come back with some shit like negative real rates, or long and variable lags, or bonds are simply the wrong price. Impossible to argue with these religious types


Muh Taylor rule


Stan Grant sure is one black arsed mother fucker these days. He used to be about the colour of my lily white arse, but these days he looks like he’s had a good spit polish with half a tin of Parade Gloss.


his facial structure does not lie hes only abotu 1/4th aboriginal if that. he looks caucasoid regardless of his tan


kill them them…. a decrease in demand can’t be the reason….
exterminate them with fire

The Melbourne pandemic experience was an (un)natural experiment in ‘flooding the market’ with housing. This unusual situation acted as a short-term, albeit useful, glimpse into the potential consequences of a sudden increase in supply on the housing market.

A fly in your ointment

15 minutes cities for dummies
I do not remember seeing a well made practical explanation with an excellent metaphor as this one

State of control
a documentary on digitalisation our lives. interesting brain picking. if you don’t have Telegram, find it on rumble etc.

if only half the whities are as half as smart and 1/4 as uncomplacent/recalcitrant as this kaffir...

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