Way back in 2008 the power of good government was used to rescue the finance industry by effectively buying all their bad debt. Government paper was printed by the trillions and by some miracle it never resulted in inflation, because it never got to the man on the street, only to asset prices. Then came COVID and handouts to the man on the street.
<loop>Then came inflation and rising interest rates. Then bond yields started to rise. Now, fewer people (and bots) want to buy government bonds. It cannot now be assumed that government debt can be refinanced easily. The most comfortable way (least likely to result in blood on the streets) to reduce that debt is by running inflation higher than interest rates, but if inflation keeps rising then interest rates have to follow. Even if inflation moderates, they have to keep interest rates below inflation to deal with all the debt.
If interest rates are below inflation, why would anyone buy government bonds, keep bank deposits, etc? They’ll have to put interest rates higher than inflation to deal with this and that will make the debt even more expensive. Then there won’t be enough money to grow the economy because everyone will be servicing debt. Then the tax receipts will fall. Then the governments become less able to pay off their debts so they print money. </loop>
I have a few ideas on how the loop might end, but in the meantime we have to get through it with our worth intact. Australian property should do OK since rents will have a floor put under them thanks to record high immigration. Australians will not do so well as their breeding rate collapses under the weight of competition for houses and jobs.
I’m sure I’ve missed something, overstated the case, exaggerated, etc. Comments below!
this is along the lines of what I’ve said a few times – to inflate the debt away, interest rates have to be below inflation rates.
however you turn that – this means that the banks take the pain As their balance sheets shrink in relative terms.
min the days of gov-controlled banking it’s something you could mandate. These days, it’s not really the same.
would have to dust off the old TFF in order to make it happen – that shifts the pain from the banks to the public balance sheet. Then there’s the question of what you do with that public balance sheet. Probably have to print, eventually.
at the end of the day it’s really a question of allocation/distribution.
How much pain has to be suffered to exit the loop?
This goldbug thinks the doom loop in the UK will be Weimar style hyperinflationary.
The logic I’ve set out points that way too…but it’s a complex non-linear system and I haven’t done any modelling. I think there must be some sort of equilibrium point where the various forces balance, if only because the assets and organisational systems of western countries retain some real worth.
As each day passes, the UK is getting closer to developing nation status. Having a banker WEF stooge as a PM just confirms what people already know that the country was run for the benefit of bankers. Now the majority of society is feeling the effects. Most Manufacturing has long since left the country, so how do they improve their living standards? Bankers have sold off anything worth money like housing, utilities.
I guess the average Brit will own nothing and be happy.
Britain has a lot more manufacturing than Australia. They still have enough know how to rebuild.
Britain has a worse energy crisis than us. Not sure that bodes well for manufacturing.
Is the North Sea dry?
Are our gas fields?
Absolutely. I used to piss myself laughing at all the cucks going on how brexit would destroy UK. Even now cunts are trying to pin the UK’s failing on brexit.
IMO easiest way is to raise wages and increase tax receipts. Sure rates rise but so do wages and income tax receipts. I have been saying it for a few years that this will be the main game with the digitisation of currency.
When RBA get CBDC up and running I fully expect legislated wage rises to be a thing. e.g. July 1 everyone receives 5% wage rise. They have the payroll data on the CBDC ledger and can enforce it.
This is what I’ve said before but was told off by you and others
it doesn’t imply a depreciation of the AUD, because it doesn’t imply an increase in the amount of currency circulating but an increase in VELOCITY
it was the fall in velocity that was associated with the most recent disinflationary period
v = gdp / m
gdp = v x m
the only way they were previously trying to get gdp up was by increasing m (money supply)
of course this was just resulting in v falling if gdp didn’t change
increased velocity will lead to greater equality
it’s something we should all look forward to with cbdc
I disagreed with your stance on the AUD, and I still disagree with it. You can’t have the cost of an Australian worker perpetually rise faster than international competitors. You also can’t have perpetual wage inflation without price inflation. All of our production would shift overseas. We will import more and export less, Australians will take more cheaper o/s holidays and fewer foreigners will take expensive Australian holidays. All the money flows would be out of the country. The AUD has to give in unless something else like much higher interest rates offsets those money flows with foreign investment.
we don’t produce anything
our production shifted overseas a long time ago
its mines plus agriculture , both of which require minimal workforce or have other inputs that are far more costly than labor
its just selling coffees and wiping arses
and building houses
the high building costs will be offset by the wages
There is still money being converted into AUD to buy minerals, produce, property, tourism, etc. But fair point on mining. That is a big chunk of AUD support with minimal worker contribution.
there’s also the fact that almost all private and public debt is AUD denominated
so a devaluation the AUD, while we still produce commodities valued in USD, is only going to be a good thing
we could write it all down very quickly if we were willing to dramatically drop the currency
Falling living standards here we come…
As long as some of that increased velocity heads overseas(and given how much is imported then a lot of it will) then you can’t do this without printing.
this idea of “increased v” basically supposes that the cycle time of everything in shortened (on average).
so rather than upgrading my garden hose once every 24 months, I will replace it once a year (Gardena gets more sales, more profits, lifts wages).
Rather than replacing my gym socks every 6 months, I do it every 4 months (Bonds gets more sales, more profits, lifts wages, etc)
And this ripples through everything, because Gardena and bonds buy more inputs, their staff have more salaries to spend, etc. The same amount of underlying money goes round faster and faster.
but this is just another description “more consumption”. (Starting from a point of overconsumption, perhaps). It is not new. More consumption has been the catchcry for decades already.
And as Robert and Bjw say, given that we don’t produce much and import heaps, this kind of virtuous consumption loop isn’t really possible.
if we try to consume more without producing more, the fx rate will fall to compensate.
reindustrialisation might be a (slow) way out. All that stuff about “Keeping profits in Australia” and such quaint stuff….
if prices and wages rise, v rises
you can spend more to get the same amount of goods/services
there is no extra consumption (in real terms)
in fact, there will probably be less (in real terms)
the goal is that it inflates away the debt
not that it improves your quality of life
so we basically just add a zero to all amounts? Minimum wage $200/hour, 1L milk $30, loaf of bread $50?
it is particularly obvious in that scenario that the main effects would be:
no we don’t just add a zero
we increase wages
yes the “lenders” wear it
I’m not convinced on the effects on the AUD exchange rate, but probably yes it wears it
and that is why the lenders wear it as we have borrowed publically and privately in AUD
its the best solution for the common wealth of australia
so we agree
obviously I exaggerated a bit (about going x10 thru adding a zero) to make the point more obvious.
but increasing wages/prices x1.5, say, is basically the same thing, just on a smaller scale.
I fail to understand what your objection to the plan is though
To simplify, if we 2x the amount of AUD in circulation
and the value of the AUD relative to the ROW halves
On an aggregate level we are no better or worse off
People holding AUD deposits and AUD bonds/banks will lose
People with AUD debts (such as the Australian government and therefore the entire population) will win
However, even that depends on how the 2x’ing is distributed
What I’m suggesting is higher wages
And please note that only 60% of the australian population has a job
The effects are not that clear or linear
People who don’t work (retirees, unemployed, owners of capital, “investors”) will have to severely cut back their consumption
I don’t necessarily have an objection, as such. I’m just pointing out what the downsides of the plan are. That is – who wears the cost. And highlighting that the plan is all about redistribution.
this then highlights the political aspect of it… like, say, financiers may not want to wear the cost.
the points you make about those not working, etc are valid too. The distributional effects will be complex.
Financiers are not in control though, Sweeper
We saw what happened when the BoE decided they wanted rates to be lower – it just happened (and the pound went up to boot)
Anyway, i’m sure there will be money for the (select) boys though however they decide to work it out
But from an idealistic viewpoint, you would have to agree that this is the best solution to the current pickle we find ourselves in, correct?
well, if we limit our choices to mere financial engineering and redistribution – yes, we might as well tip the distributional outcomes towards those who work and away from those that just lend.
if we don’t operate within those constraints, it would be smart to get some reindustrialisation in as part of the wage inflation/currency devaluation play, to change the fundamental underpinnings of all outcomes, over time.
Just accepting your plan at face value, how exactly are wages going to be made to rise?
Massive acquisitions of private companies by the government?
Making wages rise? That’s the easy part, I think.
I’m all ears for how.
Interest rates are centrally controlled.
Wages are the result of millions of individual decisions between parties. Kind of like most other things in economics. It’s why all the predictions are rubbish and attempts to control it work so poorly.
we’re taking about Coming’s fantasy world where the government chooses to deliberately leave lenders out in the cold by significantly debasing they currency.
in this fantasy world, we can have overt diktat in relation to wages. Such as:
if it were seriously tried – it wouldn’t take much. It would snowball quickly, if 20-30% of businesses do it, cost push will flow through everything.
Sure, in fantasy land you can just dictate wage increases.
these will probably have less effect than you think on overall wages but may have a disproportionate effect on the inflation he also wants to create given they are all for salaries at the lower end compared with the general population.
These may work but are more likely to end up being gamed rather than having the effect of actually increasing wages across the board.
And the rather glaring grey mass in the corner, what % of the workforce are contractors and how do you stop businesses from converting more permanent to contract if you mandate wage increases?
Is peachy sweeper. From memory used to be in agreeance with sweeper at the other place.
The only way you can spend more to get the same amount of goods and services if there is imports is if the exhange rate adjusts or the entire world inflates along with us.
So this would be like the opposite of the redenomination of the Franc in 1960?
Not sure what you mean. It would be a 1:1 swap for cash AUD.
No. 1:1. I was referring to indirect debasement via wage inflation.
They could do this 90% now. Anyone who is PAYE they already get all this info.
I think nuclear war is much more viable these days because dissent has been largely eradicated from political life (see also, Democrat “progressives” withdrawing their letter with a mild critique of the Biden administration’s unwillingness to conduct diplomacy).
If we have a nuclear war then there won’t be a civilisation left to make a narrative. But if there was one, let’s say, the entire Western world’s narrative would be that it was Russia’s fault and the US did not act unreasonably, regardless of what actually happened or even who fired their nukes first.
This environment of impunity lets the psychotic neocons in government do whatever they want. Mistakes like Iraq belong to the past, they could never happen again… for some reason.
It was only seven years ago that progressives were having meltdowns that Trump had access to the nuclear button. Now they seem okay that a guy with dementia has access to the same button and that he will use it.
Most of the criticism that I see about the Ukraine war come from the likes of Tucker Carlson, Rand Paul, etc.
The thing about that button is it doesn’t really exist. Nukes will only be launched if the senior US military thinks it is a good idea. And against russia it is suicidal.
I know the nuclear button is a figure of speech, but the president needs to be okay with nuking a city/region.
Yes, but so do the people with the actual weapons. Just because the president says so doesn’t mean it automatically happens.
Just because I was following orders has been clearly established as a non suitable defence against war crimes.
fucking lol the whole thing has been called off
lol what a terrible excuse
They had to find an excuse and they did so find it.
now, will the accuser refuse to participate in a retrial, as has been predicted?
They don’t actually need the accuser to conduct a retrial but I’m still betting the prosecution doesn’t whether she wants to or not.
She will have to write a new chapter for her book, describing her PTSD (Post Trial Stress Disorder).
‘It has come to my attention that one of you has undertaken research in relation to issues in the case and that material has entered the jury room which ought not to have.
as a juror receiving umpteen instructions to consider only the evidence arising in the court, I’ll just keep schtum wrt to this new material being introduced by my fellow juror?
yeah like fuck I will!
I’ll rely on a chance discovery by the sheriff?
yeah like fuck I will!
That’s not the reason. The juror had conducted independent research of the case outside the evidence presented at the trial despite multiple cautions not to do that, and had brought external documents (list of comments from EZFKA perhaps? 😊) into the jury room, thus potentially tainting the views of the jury with invalid information. The juror would have definitely known this was the wrong thing to do, and had attempted to conceal the evidence.
Another demonstration of the truism that Most People Are Idiots.
What a fucking debacle.
Bet you this juror was a she
You beat me to it.
Doesn’t effect the outcome, it would have been hung anyway to the same effect.
This just sped up the process of reaching that point.
no thered of been no hung jury, the judge wasnt allowing it
this could have saved bruceys ass
the judge can’t stop it.
sounds like she did her best to, it was clearly hung over a week ago and she kept telling them to go back
After at least 17 directions by the trial judge not to do so. LoL. The juror claimed the documents hadn’t been used in deliberations. Fckn LoL. Sounds like the sort of nonsense a feminist would pull.
In NSW, the jurors actions would apparently be an offence, but not in the ACT.
why not just declare this done and dusted and move the fk on
also basically the juror was a feminazi cvnt
now poor brucey has to go to re-trial, this whole thing is FUCKING RIGGED
should have let them walk on a hung jury, but the feminist judge wants an outcome (brucey guilty) and has her fingers on the scale
As of today, he’s not guilty
he’s innocent as of day bc he has that presumption and hasnt been convicted
hung jury or discharged is exactly the same outcome from a legal perspective. From a PR perspective it just doesn’t reveal what the jury was thinking.
when a jury is hung they dont order a retrial instantly like they did herre
They haven’t ordered a retrial. They have offered a date. My bet is the prosecution drops it quietly.
got a link
Retrial scheduled for February next yearThe judge granted Mr Lehrmann bail until a new trial, scheduled for February 20, 2023.
that sounds pretty final to me idfk
If you think that’s final you really don’t understand court proceedings. The prosecution could drop the chages at any point upto the trial conclusion.
why would they
they want this guys head on a wall they are not dropping shit
its best to just ignore this fucking moron
Then a hung jury would have gone to retrial as well. It is not a not guilty verdict.
so why would they not do a retrial on a hung jury?
“Justice Lucy McCallum in the Lehrmann trial has made it very clear that we can report this aborted trial result then not say a word more.
Any commentary at all can prejudice a new trial and lead to contempt of court charges”
anyone gunna tell the wilkinson cvnt?
edit: where’s the suppression order then?
Didn’t stop hefty hefty higgo flapping her mouth outside the court afterwords did it.
oh my what a performance by Britt!
Should get a logie
its brucey who should be lashing out lol, the cvnt feminist judge should have ended this as hung on friday
i don’t really care what happens to this fuckwit, but this is absolutely disgraceful
For sure it was going to end up hung jury
Maybe this cunt juror deliberately let herself get caught to get a mistrial, or maybe it was the cunt judge looking for an excuse
Note that the judge has suppressed all other information
Probably the jury was going to vote to acquit 11-1, except this one man hating juror
u lie m8 u do care just admit it
trying to sound even handed is all well and good but we all know its going to be infinitely funnier if hes found NG than the inverse
higgins has been built up like a god for the past 2 years and this would put that all in jeopardy
I care about my own entertainment, yes for sure
This has increased the comedy factor of the whole circus so I applaud it from that point of view
However, it does worry me that the same gross injustice could be perpetrated against me by our judicial system
If Bruce were to kill himself, for instance, it might be a good and entertaining finale. So I don’t care about him as an individual
really hope they reveal info about the jury and who this juror was etc though
its just really an unjustifiable decision by the judge to be honest
even if the juror had this info, there is no evidence she shared it with anyone
So unless all the other jurors were unanimous and she was the only holdout (guilty or not guilty) it has no bearing on the outcome of deliberations
If she was the only holdout, and that holdout was for “not guilty” then I can understand considering a mistrial
But if she was the only holdout for “guilty” then at worst the result for bruce should have been hung or NG
the research was talking about how false rape accusations are super rare, they (she) was extremely likely to be a holdout for guilty
it was likely a printed off jezebel dot com article
Do you have a link to confirm that
so hypothetically if she was the sole holdout for “guilty” then bruce was otherwise going to be unanimously be found not guilty
The judge should have called it hung at absolute worst – absolute fucking bitch could not tolerate letting him walk free
the jezebel thing i made up lol that was a joke
but the other part was true
“The court heard the paper related to the “unhelpfulness of trying to quantify” how often false rape accusations were made.”
plus its canberra
anyone bringing stats about how false rape accusations are rare (if that even exists) would be some sort of MRA, how many of those exist in the world let alone in canberra compared to feminists who would never show up with that kind of material
absolute fucking bullshit that they are even allowed to go home
Why aren’t they locked in the fucking room until they come up with an answer
They should have been thinking and discussing with each other during the trial anyway
Do you have any idea what you are talking about?
Because then juries would truly be made up of the dumbest of the dumb that can’t figure out how to get out of it. Is that who you want deciding your fate if you are ever falsely accused(or legitimately)
While the evidence was being given, or over lunch in public?
Because then juries would truly be made up of the dumbest of the dumb that can’t figure out how to get out of it.
they already are
i just throw my jury summons in the trash and absolutely nothing happens to me
When I got summoned for JD I ticked ‘prefer not to say’ in regards to my vaccination status – got an immediate‘thank you for your service but it isn’t needed’.
When I was dinged for jury duty, I wrote back that “The police wouldn’t charge them if they weren’t guilty”.
That’ll work too! 😆
sorry here’s the performance
fmd look at this woman she legit looks 45
The amount of young women in Canberra too they must outnumber the amount of young men. You wouldn’t fuck her if you were stuck in Port Hedland or Mount Isa.
forbidden research… sounds like research into Covid “vaccine” efficacy and treatment options. 😂 😂 🤣