As Sweden gets rid of restrictions, others double down. A nice summary of covid restrictions in various places: https://www.northstarmeetingsgroup.com/coronavirus-countries-cities-reopening-COVID-19-new-cases
Looks like the Wall St ESG crew are not as powerful as I thought:
If shale oils comes back online in numbers it will keep a lid on oil price hikes, thus limiting inflation. We can expect a similar outcome with other industrial products, including manufactured goods. There is pressure on manufacturers not to ramp up capacity, but in competitive product areas they will be forced to. There are almost 8 billion people in the world and manufacturing know how has spread far and wide. Robots and 3D printing get cheaper and better every year. There are not enough new products and services being developed so we can expect more competition, not less.
Production in Sweden already rising:
Machine tool orders rising in Japan: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/daily-briefing-between-inflation-and-deflation-lies-more-volatility
I guess this puts me in the transitory camp. However, it all depends on what the money printers do. As the realvision (via ZH) piece says, volatility looks likely.
Bitcoin is not dead. Niall Ferguson agrees: https://www.afr.com/technology/why-the-bear-market-for-crypto-is-not-going-to-last-20220208-p59una
This table is ranked by distance of foresight. Rank your sources accordingly.
1. Metal traders
2. Bond traders
3. Equity Traders
4. Oil Traders
5. Currency Traders
7. Central Bankershttps://macroops.substack.com/p/anticipating-anticipation
Soros thinks Xi’s stretched himself too thin by derailing property. Rising discontent may mean he doesn’t get a third term.https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/soros-vs-dalio-in-an-olympian-debate-on-china/
How wrong are the climate models if they can’t do clouds right? I can’t remember where I came across this (probably ZH). Can anyone here read it in full and report back? https://www.wsj.com/articles/climate-change-global-warming-computer-model-11642191155
AFR’s Nick Hossack is right that Education and Health need reform…but when haven’t they? How come these guys are still getting away with such shallow reasoning and commentary? Goals are meant to be S.M.A.R.T. . “Make stuff better” is not S.M.A.R.T. On the other hand, probably not a good idea to be too specific in case it comes back to bite you. https://www.afr.com/policy/health-and-education/it-s-labor-s-choice-to-reform-bloated-health-and-education-sectors-20220209-p59v5q
Michael West has some good things to say here. Pointing out just how bad the last 6 years have been for the Autsralian Economy in technicolour detail: https://www.michaelwest.com.au/a-massive-movement-of-people-into-new-jobs-or-josh-joshing-again/
….sadly, and unbelievably when it comes to talking about record low unemployment he fails to even mention immigration, preferring to blame the bloating public sector as the sponge that mops up unemployed.
The winter olympics have been great fun to watch. Hope you have managed to see some of the events.