Midweek Macrobusiness mirth

So sorry that the regular EZFKA contributors have been too lazy or busy to post anything up this week! To avoid ye olde weekend links comments overflowing any further let’s takes DictatorDavid’s comment as the starting point for a new discussion.

I have to laugh at this post on MB. All the bravado and talk of a housing crash is gone. People are resigned to the fact property prices won’t crash nor will be crashing anytime soon. Like I said 12 months ago on MB it’s going to be another long decade for the bears waiting in the cold for a crisis that may eventuate to a property market crash. Meanwhile the average Sydney price will be $2.5m…

(https://www.ezfka.com/2021/07/30/weekend-links-31-jul-1-aug-2021/#comment-8358)

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Ramjet

Peachy, it is their narrative for their latest forecast that MPLOL will be enacted early next year. You wouldn’t forecast MPLOL if prices were falling.

bjw678

I’d agree if i thought serviceability was the point of lowering rates.
I see the point of lowering rates to be expanding the money supply so MP and prices not increasing actively fights that.
The only solution I see is massive inflation while keeping interest rates low to inflate the debt away, but that also has problems.

bjw678

The expansion can partially happen with an expanding money supply but deposits become a limiting factor very quickly.

Say someone saves a $20,000 to get a 95% loan for a $400k property. If prices remain flat they can’t get a loan beyond that without saving a huge deposit. Even 2% price inflation means in 5 years the property is worth $440k and they now have a $60k deposit that gets them a $1.2mill loan at 95%.

And yes I have neglected stamp duty, compound price gains and other things but the general point remains, the price increase is a deposit enabler and the deposit is the limiting factor at this point.

Reus's Large MEMBER

This also explains the huge uptake of FHB’s in the last year that has been the driver behind the increases as they now only need a 5% deposit as the gubbermint / tax payer is on the hook for the rest, so you 20k gets you 400k where it used to only get you 100k unless you had LMI. Plus if the bank of mum and dad throw in a easy 50k then you have a deposit for 1.4 mil, so boom times are seen.

Unfortunately if the billions thrown at the EZFKA units stops then the whole mess comes crashing down especially when compounded due to lockdowns.

bjw678

prices can stagnate for 5 years while debt keeps growing strongly.

Probably true, but at that point you can’t start up the price increases again to increase the debt, since no one has equity left for deposits to bid up the prices to increase the equity.

It works fine while you keep it running, but if you let it cool down too much, you can’t start it again.

Reus's Large MEMBER

There are still so many more that can be used, super as a deposit, tax deductable mortgage repayments, shared gubbermint ownership, negative interest rates and some others I am too sane to think of. Of course the rebooting of importing EZFKA units to take on more debt

Ramjet

Super as a deposit: sort of done with allowing people to take out super last year
Tax deductible mortgages: already, but for investment properties
shared government ownership: not there yet, but government is now an LMI provider
Negative interest rates: TFF will be coming our way next year and made permanent. Negative rates the year after
Importing EZFKA units: done by stealth next year

Expect more grants, restrictive releases and new visa categories

Reus's Large MEMBER

Unfortunately the virus is going to virus as evidenced by Indian and Peru (lambda) strains, being that the vaccines are non sterilising we are only going to to get more vaccine dodging strains as time goes on, the chance of EZFKA being open is very low unless we are prepared to accept the 1-200k loss you mention above.

So in the meanwhile the printing presses are going to go brrr till there is no brrr left.

TBH I think that in a few years time we are going to have half the world population that we have now and things are going to be significantly different probably unrecognisable. Probably something along these lines

“Ten years from now you’ll put on a jacket and find a mask in the pocket. “Oh man, what a weird year that was,” you’ll chuckle to yourself. Then you’ll pick up your machete and continue across the wasteland, keeping to the shadows to avoid the roving gangs of cannibal raiders.”

LSWCHP

You’re welcome.

I made 100 rounds of 158gn jacketed .357 hollow points last weekend, just because I could. “Flying ashtrays” that hit like a train. The lever action rifle…aka the cowboy assault rifle. Accept no substitutes.

bjw678

NSW has made it impossible to obtain them for most people since covid. You must undertake approved activities, which have been cancelled.

bjw678

Firearms in general, specifically the lever action. Maybe I should have been a bit more verbose and specific.

We have a “valid reason” condition for firearms that requires undertaking a minimum number of approved club activities a year to acquire or retain the licence. Given the shutdowns that hasn’t been possible so technically most gun owners could have their guns confiscated for failure to comply with that although they reluctantly made an exception for obvious reasons.

Farmers and professional shooters have different conditions though.

If you love reading legal stuff, knock yourself out

bjw678

All ranges being Closed until further notice makes the first hoop unreachable, which was the point I was making(apparently very badly) above.

Even outside specific lockdown they have been running reduced capacity and existing members only everywhere I have seen, admittedly not thoroughly observing.

Last edited 2 months ago by bjw678
bjw678

Probably, I’m not sure how thoroughly that is checked and I don’t know anyone personally that’s tried it.

Ultimately I don’t see a situation where someone could shoot or threaten someone with a gun in urban NSW and not have all guns confiscated where they wouldn’t already have far bigger problems than having a gun or not.

Ramjet

Given Sydney will be locked down for the next three months, it is unlikely MPLOL will be brought in anytime soon. Sydney is about one third of total residential housing assets, well, my guess anyway, I think Melbourne plus Sydney is about 60%. So one third with no growth will make total growth look lower and harder to put in MPLOL.

ThePensum

I checked out MB for the first time in a while, one of the COVID threads. Interesting that LVO is basically now taking an anti-lockdown stance, although of course very pro vaccine. But part of the anti-lockdown stance was that Australians have apparently had a gutfull. A lot of the comments are now saying what various people were putting up on that site 18 months ago.

Are they really that all-in on the recovery trade (for their fund)? Fair enough I guess, but it’s fading now. The easy money has been made, it’s going to be a lot more volatile from here.

Ramjet

The fund is overweight travel stocks as they missed the initial recovery. Travel stocks require people movement particularly interstate. Qantas operating 40% domestic capacity is not particularly good for its share price nor for that of travel stocks like FLT.

Stewie

To be fair LVO has been taking an increasing anti-lockdown stance since Melbourne’s last lockdown. In fact I remember commenting and him responding that he thought enough was enough.

He, like most people, was sensibly pro-1st lock down in order to understand what we were dealing with and to give ourselves time to get our house in order to deal with it…. instead Australia’s approach to ‘deal with it’ was to go all in on vaccines and so have been woefully under prepared to deal with what is now unfolding.

bjw678

You overestimate the planning of the state governments.
The plan was “keep cases low to make us look good” and not worry about long term at all.
6 weeks ago nsw government wasn’t worried about vax’s at all and was all in on waiting for pfizer. They only started pushing vax’s when the case counts started making them look bad.

Large Member

Well #scottyfrommarketing and his band of merry men trust in the EZFKA process where ever more ezfka units will take on mountains of debt in order to make sure that house prices only ever go up, and they will ensure that policy and QE is in place to reflect this

Stewie

So sorry that the regular EZFKA contributors have been too lazy or busy to post anything up this week!”

Sorry – PUBG has a new map and I’ve been fiending on it.

bjw678

Predicting likely outcomes into the future doesn’t seem all that hard either, but most people seem to fail miserably.
It’s a little late for LVO to change his lockdown stance given:

When you spend 18 months spreading fear about a killer virus, the inevitable end point is enough of the people believe you that unless you completely eradicate it they will never feel safe again.

We are reaching the probable outcome of choosing the path we have. It is too late to change it easily. If we wanted to live with the virus, that was something that had to be decided 12+ months ago.

And I guess all that is to point out PUBG may be harder than it looks(having no idea what it even is…)

LSWCHP

Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

Stewie

My game play is to assume the form and personality of a cockroach, scuttling from hiding place to hiding place and avoiding all confrontation.

Agent 47

PUBG?

Doom Eternal is where it’s at.

Gouda

Preferred the first Doom 2016 remake over Eternal. I think the Marauder enemy had me rage quitting half way through and it felt too different from the rest of the game until that point.

Might have a look at Orcs Must Die 3 – can remember enjoying the first 2 games but it feels like a long time ago.

DjenkA

Dare I say, given the history of EmBee mostly darting at the black rim of the dartboard, at times not even in the direction of it, that there is something we don’t know what it it but it will sink the houses within next 18 months?
Tbh, my gut feeling is that predictable unpredictable is at the next stop – all aboard.

Dictator David

People 18 months into this pandemic have been buoyed on hopium. Everyone I know didn’t think it would last this long and have scoffed when I said we wouldn’t be able to travel etc. Now they are resigned to the fact. I can’t even go to the snow without getting a covid swab, this will be the second season that’s put the hurt on up there. A lot of people I talk to have given up even trying to go interstate, most people end up cancelling last minute because something changes.

Like bj above notes, 6 weeks ago the nsw government didn’t foresee they’d be in the position they are in now with Gladys saying the worst is yet to come. The problem I see with nsw is they are slow to react, a lesson Vic learnt early. No state is prepared to truly let it rip so nsw will end up enacting harsher and harsher rules to catch up.

If in 12-18 months we are still in the same position with poor vaccination take up rates or the vaccine turns out to not be as effective as promised. Then what? If we’re still needing tight lockdowns and no tourism or immigration then the already record debt is going to be miniscule to what we see today.

Six months ago they were saying it was going to cost every single Australian $44,000 to pay back the debt. Is there a point where government will no longer be able to or in liberals case, want to increase debt?

Last edited 2 months ago by DictatorDavid
Large Member

The world is running on QE and hope, both are going to run out one day, when exactly I don’t know but the whole house of cards is becoming more unstable and the increasing authoritarian approach from the elites shows that they know this and are desperately trying to keep the dancing going while the ship tilts before it sinks beneath the surface.

DjenkA

I ask myself if all this by design. And I don’t look at it only as ways to pervert freedoms permanently and voluntarily but as a new form of endebtment. How much will pharma benefit from annual inoculations at 0 risk for them and cui bono from disruptions.
In the limelight of that thought, I am certain that whichever path taken in virus handling we would’ve end up the same. Look at the world and tell me why the outcomes are almost universal irrespective of the chosen pathways for handling the virus. It makes me certain that even if we did let it rip the difference would only be in the number of people pushing daisies.

Last edited 2 months ago by DjenkA
Reus's Large MEMBER

So true, had their not been a vaccine there would have been a “treatment” which given the current non sterilising vaccines is really all that they are, either way Big Pharma would be making a killing.

TBH the descent into a dictatorship has been a lot faster than I expected, however the push back has started in Europe and the US which gives me hope

Ramjet

EZFKA won’t let it rip. In fact, it will go zero risk well into next year. Just look at who has the wealth and who is most susceptible to dying of Covid. We have another 12-18 months of lockdowns.

DictatorDavid

And that’s the crux. It will be very interesting to see how well houses and the economy is going in 18m time. I imagine there will be sfa small business left. Which will make the big end of town happy. Personally I don’t see the current trajectory as sustainable without massive social and economic impact.

And on the same topic I said two weeks ago that Melbourne would have a 6th lockdown. Today Dan Andrews and co. are already using language that there’ll be another. Fun times…

Ramjet

Why would anyone have a small business? Easier to get a job with the government or large corporate and invest in property. It is the EZFKA way.

Daniel Andrews will keep doing these lockdowns well into next year right up until the election. The state premiers will ignore the roadmap as they have staked their career on eliminating Covid.

The90kwbeast

Yes. I commented as such the other week. The LNP doesn’t give a shit about most small businesses unless it’s FIRE related somehow or construction related.

bjw678

The small construction businesses were incidental, unoccupied high rise was what they actually cared about.
“unoccupied” was one of the conditions they put on opening up construction.

bjw678

Gladys straight out said it, and deputy premier Barilaro had the brain fart to say the householder would have to leave for a while so work could be done in homes. Although given the complete idiocy of that particular statement they may have backtracked by now.
I really can’t be bothered looking for it but it was in the daily propaganda dump.

edit: i lied about not being bothered.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/construction-back-on-in-all-low-risk-nsw-lgas/41ddef68-c571-43e4-9a5e-a609ed462640

Last edited 2 months ago by bjw678
LSWCHP

My weeks skiing at Falls Creek with my old army mates has gone down the gurgler. I pity the snow sports people.

Stewie

Yeah – missing a week at Perisher this year ☹️

stagmal

here’s a post i’m never going to read ever

didntreadksippy.png
Stewie

His word salads are as impenetrable as Fort Knox, even when he is trying to speak clearly.

T

In a weird way, I kind of miss that guy.Skippy’s specific brand of confusion is quite unique to be honest.

I think he just likes words. And wants to be heeded, which is normal I guess for an older bloke right. You want society to respect and look up to you, and you can provide it guidance.

But jeez he goes off the beaten track.

harry

It’s a boomer genius and an unmitigated cunt.

Stewie

Don’t forget his IQ of 124.

Last edited 2 months ago by Stewie
Ramjet

Why would anyone brag about a 124 IQ. Yes, you are very smart, but you still have some distance to go before genius.

DjenkA

It’s a narcissistic way of using the words that do make sense from a narrow perspective of selected information choice known only to a few or just him. A nice mimic of learned elders heavy scientific talk on a topic but in essence it is nothing than a series of sound bites which serve no purpose other to superimpose oneself as intellectually superior.
Chortle.

Stewie

He can google and repeat, but he can’t pattern recognise or generate a single original idea for himself.

In regards to his word salads…

“Speaking style is a decent indicator of intelligence level.

If a person uses complex sentence structure and big words, it indicates a significantly above average IQ.

Of course there is the question; is the complexity of their language natural and something they use for the sake of communicating information as precisely as possible, or is it complexity they manufacture for the sake of trying to show off how smart they are?

If the former, they probably have an IQ of 130+. If the latter, they probably have an IQ in the range of 110 – 120.”

https://corporatemachiavelli.com/analytical-mind-facet-of-cunning/

Last edited 2 months ago by Stewie
bjw678

He sure as shit is not communicating information precisely.

DjenkA

I’ll buy one of the the two options when he can coherently, in his own words, concoct an assessment longer than 4-5 sentences and without a single quote (say with paraphrasing).

ThePensum

hahahaha

Gouda

I actually think this is one of Skip’s more digestible posts. 

However, for someone with a tendency to utilise complex language and more sophisticated word choices there are some elements in that post that stand out as being slightly unusual.

For instance, why are the words “educator” and “practitioner” capitalised mid sentence, and why is the acronym IDSA explained after the second use and not the first time the term appears? Surely if the author believes it needs explanation then it should come first.

DjenkA

sorta like rapture is a good thing is some mobs thinking …”

when I lived in Jamaica could not concoct such a word salad even when under a full blown heavy meditation divine weekend.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Word_salad

Bottom line, I don’t care. It is just fun to see through the smokes and mirrors…

bjw678

I did read it, and it doesn’t support what I assume to be his position as much as he thinks it does.

How many of the members of the IDSA (Infectious Disease Society of America) have actually read the foundational textbook in Infectious Disease – Mandell? That is the accumulated wisdom and knowledge of the specialty. In the very first section of the coronavirus chapter and again in the respiratory virus chapter, it is explicitly stated that herd immunity does not exist in these viruses. If it does, it is only very transitory and the viruses are back again in the next season. I would argue that the evidence we already have is very supportive of what the textbook is stating. 

It argues that elimination is flat out impossible, so either lockdowns forever or let it rip. And although skip is impenetrable as always he kinda seemed against the let it rip premise, and also doesn’t seem pro authoritarian although maybe self preservation is rating higher that authoritarianism at the moment??

ThePensum

that’s how I read that quote as well. and I thought it was going against his earlier posts about covid.

Reus's Large MEMBER

The name is perfect, as soon as I see skippy I know to skip down the comments for there is nothing worth reading.

Ramjet

That makes two of us. Although given the number of cringeworthy commenters, it is far better to skip EmBee.

DictatorDavid

.
What say residents of EZFKA?

Screen Shot 2021-08-05 at 12.52.06.png
Last edited 2 months ago by DictatorDavid
DictatorDavid

.

Screen Shot 2021-08-05 at 12.52.13.png
ThePensum

bnich? isn’t he the chicken little? no emotional bias indeed…..

Gouda

This would have been me once upon a time, although the amount saved in question was nearly enough to purchase the entire property outright.

The thing is, after purchasing this year and having an offset over 90% full I still have access to the liquid assets in the case of an emergency.

Must say I’m not against having some gold as an inflation hedge, although the amount I invested in years back is somewhere about. While I could liquidate and pay off the mortgage completely, I think having to pay some interest like your average EZFKA unit isn’t a bad thing. It must be like how CEOs who do homeless sleepouts once a year feel.

Gouda

Yeah. It might have been about 10 years ago. At the time I remember looking into silver and buying a few Perth Mint coins to commemorate the birth of my niece and nephew. At the time I had a couple of hundred ks in savings and was thinking about broadening my investments away from cash as the interest rate was starting to dwindle. At the time I had toyed with dumping it all into gold, but ended up going with about a quarter as it was my first foray into investing.

Property was never seriously considered as an option at the time, but I didn’t know which state I’d be staying in so felt content to keep saving up and wait for a crash that is still yet to come. Fortunately I was in a position where I knew my income would be well above average, so arrogantly had it in the back of my mind that if it became out of reach for me, so it would be the case for everyone.

What I didn’t count on was that the government and the RBA would continue to throw everything at property, Keen would be wrong, Joye and the bulls would prevail. Fortunately my eventual earning capacity would far exceed my expectations and my final loan was only 2x gross income.

T

Similar. I put 50k into gold in my super in 2011. Remember being surprised how small a kilo of gold was. Young and naive me walked it to the vault lol.

Ended up working out pretty well, but that is because the aud fall happened.

Interesting you bought property. I sunk my disposable cash into a business.

bjw678

Given leverage applicable to RE it NEEDS to outperform 5-10x in absolute terms to give the same returns.

Freddy

oh fuck me. I might sell my gold position.

stagmal

LOCKDOWN NUMBER 6

LMFAO

TAKE YOUR GREEN AND GOLD AND STICK IT UP YOUR ASS MOTHERFUCKERS

i want to leave australia permanently

DictatorDavid

I’ve thought about this a lot but where would you go? Every western country is just as fucked.

Last edited 2 months ago by DictatorDavid
ThePensum

Tough question.
US …. hard to want to go there right. Maybe if you go to a smaller town or city? But healthcare is a mess and the education system sounds pretty screwed.
Western Europe – well maintained and good social systems, but the language barrier is an issue.
UK – probably don’t have to say anything there.
Canada – pretty much similar problems as Au afaik; but the housing situation is even worse, and taxes are higher.

then you got Asia:
Singapore …
HK… totally fucked

and neither of them are the expat havens they once were. Singaporeans are turning on expats and tightening eligibility criteria there. And HK… well… HK….

DictatorDavid

If you think sjw madness/political correctness is bad in Aus then don’t even think about Canada!

Texas might be ok in the states. A lot of people sick of the cesspools in LA & New York moved there.

Ramjet

If you don’t want SJW madness, then forget most western countries. You would be better off in Asia. Asia is turning nationalistic though. China is doing nationalism on steroids and followed closely behind by Indonesia and the Phillipines.
Personally, I would move to Singapore, but they have made it harder for non residents to get a job. Something that Australia should have done years ago.

ThePensum

From someone who has: just remember you won’t be able to get back in without spending two weeks in jail (quarantine), and your friends in Au won’t be able to come visit ffs.

On the flip side, life is pretty much normal, as far as I can tell, in North America and Europe. And I really don’t see more lockdowns happening… what is it with Australia…..

stagmal

i dont want to come back, so that’s no problem for me. i have no one here anyway

Reus's Large MEMBER

Only 5 more lockdowns till Xmas

DictatorDavid

Fuck trying to run a hospo business. Every snap lockdown and there perishables end up going in the bin. What a cluster fuck.

Planned protests tonight so no doubt Dan will pin the blame on that for 7th lockdown.

DictatorDavid
ThePensum

oh the overloads at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan mandated the vacs months back… only a matter of time then before the rest of the world goes the same way…

stagmal

their shit is loaded with sugar anyway, its like golden circle juice absolute cloying dog shit

bjw678

My favourite quote from that:

“Ivermectin is a chemical therapeutic agent, and it has significant risks associated with it,” he said in a previous interview. “We should be very cautious about using this type of medication to treat a viral disease that the vast majority of the public is going to recover from even without this treatment.”

for a treatment in approved use since the 80’s.
But it’s OK to use the vaccines…

bjw678

That propagandist’s gonna propagand.

To mangle english within an inch of it’s life.

The90kwbeast

Or what is says about the power of language

Reus's Large MEMBER

The longer this goes on the less it seems like they actually want to get rid of it and the more it seems part of a plan to enrich the elite and subjugate the masses, non sterilising vaccines and objections to any useful treatments or investigation into treatments seems odd.

TBH though the world is overpopulated by about 4 billion people so perhaps not a bad thing, but I think the fact that this targets the elderly was not in the grand plan of the elderly elite.

bjw678

Big pharma is interested in profits, Invermectin would be out of patent and capable of being manufactured by anyone so is unlikely to be very profitable.
Big pharma is going to big pharma so has no interest in promoting old treatments.