i guess bc its less than 2 days before the referendum we can have this thread to talk about it and other stuff
its most likely going to lose, it really went down hill after the liberal party came out against it. the thing is i think for the most part it probably wouldnt matter much either way if it won or lost, it would be annoying to some people (such as white collar people) but does not seem to be much different from what already exists and what is likely to exist in some other form in the future
the no campaign has been very successful or at least it would seem so with their slogans regarding the referendum, but in reality i think it has lost because the idea is too confusing and no one really cares. its not very interesting except to a few people and that is the simplest explanation for why it has hit so hard. its pretty hard to understand it too and the yes side is intentionally kind of vague about what it’ll do etc. i dont think theres some big conspiracy about its intention and i think it was an overexcited vanity project by albo that he didnt think through enough and now is just going ahead with because backing out now would look arguably even worse than losing.
he has hurt his govt and now the unelectable peter dutton may have a chance of winning later but who knows. 2 years from now maybe no one will care about this, its almost certain they wont actually, maybe thats why albo wanted to roll the dice on it early
can it still win? wonder if anyone is making any bets about it. wonder if it will be the last referendum australia will ever have. i can see them having a change date referendum maybe in 10-15 years or perhaps even another republic referendum some day but thats it. i dont think they like the idea of letting regular people mess around with policy like this.
all in all, its really not a very interesting referendum with in the grand scheme of things fairly minimal consequences eitherway. only on the fringes such as the LNP/ALP boomer politicalbots who really give a shit about it are people truly fired up about it, if only the renters who were being marginalised by govt policy right now cared as much about their situation as these boomers do about the voice.