I thought it had been a longer time, but it was just a few months ago that we were discussing the UK “vaccine” surveillance data and how it was showing that jabbed individuals seemed to be more likely to get infected.
(Data is here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-surveillance-reports)
I observed that:
If I’m thinking about it the first way – if it goes to 4x more likely to get infected and protection against hospitalisation (given infection) falls below 80%, you’re looking at negative expected efficacy
I finally got around to seeing how this has turned out…
Now, for those who have looked at this before, the data is published weekly, is presented as rates per 100,000 population, and looks at infections, emergency admissions and deaths within 28 or 60 days it is stratified into age groups looks like this:
Just by looking at this example, you can clearly see that the jabbed are more likely to end up covid positive in many age groups, but also less likely, once infected, to end up in emergency or dead.
With the odds of getting infected being bad and the odds of not dying being good, it takes a little bit of arithmetic to work out whether, in total, being jabbed makes a bad outcome from covid more likely or less likely.
So I’ve gone and done a bit of arithmetic to see what the data say about the overall chances of the jabbed and how it has changed over time. Each time i present the underlying data and my calculations.
starting back in the good old days – week 47 of 2021:
To explain the arithmetic:
- the numbers in the first block are calculated by dividing the infection rates of vaccinated by unvaccinated (e.g. for 40-49 group: 2,022/933 = 2.16)
- the numbers in the second block are calculated by dividing the emergency/death rates of unvaccinated by vaccinated (e.g. for 40-49 group going to emergency: 29.6/7.6 = 3.89)
- the numbers in the third block are calculated by dividing the first number by the second (2.16 / 3.89 = 0.55).
so in this case the fact that one is about twice as likely to get infected, this is more than offset by the fact that one is about 4 times less likely to end up in emergency once infected.
The colour coding is simple – green is good (for the jabbed) red is bad (for the jabbed).….and the numbers are looking pretty green overall that week – somewhat higher chance of infection is well offset by notably better outcomes for the infected in all categories.
Then we look at week 10 of 2022…..:
a lot of red is creeping in – now almost all age groups are more likely to get infected if jabbed … and not just a bit: 3+ times more likely. And this effect begins to overpower the protective power of the jabs against hospitalisation and death (this protective effect is also getting weaker).
Then we get to week 13 of 2022:
and its a sea of red, a fucking disaster! It is CLEARLY FUCKED! In all age groups and across all bad outcomes (icu and death) the jabbed are significantly worse off overall. Very significantly likely to get infected and only moderately better off after infection, adding up to a net negative effect.
It is teh flippening! It seems to have turned just like i had prognosticated – risk of infection for the jabbed hit 4-fold and vaccine efficacy faded below 80%. Yeah!
now, just watch what happens next week…
And what appears is a lame excuse!
as if they don’t bloody know whether folks admitted to emergency or morgue are covid positive or not….