Tone deaf Michael Saylor posted this image this morning (which I have doctored) beneath the Maxis mantra of “HODL”, in relation to BTC’s current sell off:
His post was being viewed as tone deaf because he is apparently one of the issues driving this sell off, as the market has come to the realisation that Saylor has pumped 27bn USD into BTC over the year and the price has barely budged – that’s around $500m/week and it has done nothing other than leaving Microstrategy with an interest bill of something like 50m a week.
There have been other factors too like profit realisation as some coin analysis I was reading was that most of the coins moving back to exchanges have been only recently acquired so holders were locking in whatever gains they have made over the past couple years on this slower price appreciation. I think the second and final tranche of MtGox also became available this October, and so there are probably quite a few committed sellers there too at the margins.
All of these factors have lead to an interesting sell of in the BTC space the past couple weeks since it broke down on 3 years of support from its exponential trend line. Looks like it is currently bouncing off linear support, like it has done on previous occasions – but in all those instances exponential support was well strong.
While it looks as though the trend is likely to continue, as the BTC price has touched and bounced from the linear trend line on 3 or 4 occasions previously, it is probably worth pointing out that it did so while well within the support of the exponential trend line… a line of support that was broke a couple weeks.
Anyhow, back to Saylor, and in order to generate some discussion and additional posting to this site I am going to reproduce a tweet that I found interesting this morning:
$MSTR‘s basic mNAV is at 0.94… but what does that mean? Also, is the average Bitcoin purchase price of 74,000 relevant?
Let’s take a closer look. Nothing concrete for MSTR or Bitcoin at this moment, but it is the start of a cascade that will be very difficult to stop for
Let’s look at the facts atm and how they may play out further:
1. He can’t sell MSTR for Bitcoin anymore, since that is hurting shareholders now with “negative bitcoin yield” – an entirely made up metric, but he would be diluting shareholders, so it doesn’t make any sense anymore.
2. He can’t sell $STRC for Bitcoin since it is lower than 99 USD and unlikely to stay at a “sell-able” level.
3. All his prefs ( $STRD, $STRF, $STRK) are trending down and are at a massive discount – so, he won’t be able to raise much funds there either.
4. The demand for new Prefs and Converts seems to be zero. Let’s see if/when $STRE actually comes to market.
5. MSTR has to pay around 15mil USD in dividend and interest and operating cost per week… this will have to come from Commons (MSTR).
6. This is all common knowledge. Options- and Convert-Arb traders will jump off MSTR and close their arb. $MSTY holders will sell MSTR.
7. Any ETF will sell off MSTR as the % in the ETF is dropping.
So, all this will put even more pressure on MSTR and thus mNAV.
My personal calculations are that mNAV will go to around 0.2… so another 70-80% down from here compared to Bitcoin.
Then, 1 of 3 things happen:
1. Existing MSTR Shareholder want a return of capital (aka dividend) -> this will be a massive sell pressure on Bitcoin. Basic mNAV is what matters here.
2. Saylor goes into voluntary liquidation or Shareholders force such a liquidation. Diluted mNAV is what matters here. This will be an insane sell pressure on Bitcoin.
3. The Converts come due and Saylor can’t pay them and he goes into involuntary liquidation. This would be havoc and I think Bitcoin would drop below 1,000 USD easily.
The only way out I see is for a larger buyer to step in… the only one I see is the government, but why would they bail out a useless company.
Fun fact: The average Bitcoin purchase price of 74,000 USD is totally irrelevant to MSTR… all it does is skew the unrealized gains/losses… a totally made up metric by Saylor anyways.
Anyhow, I haven’t been following crypto news much and have no idea about Saylor’s activities or whether the above represents a true description of the issues Microstrategy faces. Some people have previously spruiked both BTC and Microstrategy here, and I have no skin in the game other than some downside bets on Polymarket (once the exponential trendline broke), it might be good for all of those interested in the subject to revisit their decisions and explain why they remain either pro or con in relation to holding BTC or crypto in general.
https://x.com/JohnRustad4BC/status/1989708566299877408
Intriguing situation in Canada where the courts might have handed some natives ownership of an entire suburb of Vancouver and now banks won’t lend on any of the property. Wonder how that might feed into Aboriginals looking to take possession of Melbourne.
Why would they want Melbourne?
Because they want to extract rent. Like everyone else in the EZFKA!
hi Robert
I have an article – its a big mushy mess but how can i get it to you?
BD6
Thay can have Melbourne. Or Naan. Or whatever the fuck the ABC call it these days. No sane person wants to go there.
“naan” lmao, that’s probably what it’s going to be called in 25 years time with the new demographics moving in and taking it over
Naan in shitoria, cause that will be what is on the streets
Stewie, I think that there is a pretty good chance that your post is ringing the bell for the bottom in Microstrategy 😉
You may well be right, I assume you been holding tight. From memory you seem to be well over Microstrategy’s strategy – how are they paying the interest? Is that claim of 50m a week accurate?
John Law would be greatly amused by all this no doubt were he still around.
I’m picking up what you’re putting down, but I don’t think that you’re right.
I don’t get into the weeds like that. The Microstrategy thing seems to be mostly FUD. The big man has been through much worse.
Fair enough – I presume you are still holding both of them then?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qhryxFgdAU
Schiff makes some strong claims here circa 24 minute mark as to why Saylor is going down that seem reasonable to me.
Schiff has only one thing to say ever and that is “buy gold”
Here’s a guy saying mstr is unsinkable:
https://www.tradingview.com/news/newsbtc:ef6d60de2094b:0-only-an-asteroid-can-sink-mstr-s-bitcoin-bet-cryptoquant-ceo-says/
MSTR’s convertible bonds and preferred stock are set up not to expose the BTC AFAIK
Isn’t that just another name for a bankruptcy?
This Ju guy seems to be a bit overconfident that failed equity conversions can be rolled over into debt:
Normally when companies fail to hit their KPI’s on convertibles their debt gets converted to equity, this time it just gets rolled over as a debt obligation. Personally I think this Ju guy is a little too blasé about assuming the debt will be rolled.
To start with companies in such a position generally have a revenue stream, while Strategy doesn’t seem to have anything substantial as BTC is non-yielding, and his talk of revenue is just tied up into its NAV according to Schiff.
The other problem with this thesis is the question of who will be holding the convertible debt by this stage? If it is all the same retail suckers then rolling it over may be the only choice they have.
But if a portion of his book was originally sold to greedy institutional, just taking a small 1% relative to their own books on the chance that they could get some cheap shares at the end of it if BTC works out, then there is going to be a problem.
The reason for this is MTM accounting. While hedge funds, etc can carry it at amortised cost or AFS, the fact is MTM underpins most of the market, and one way or another feeds into their funding costs. These companies will have already have long recognised the MTM of their holding, at least internally, and once they decide that there is no chance of Strategy succeeding then they’ll just offload their convertible holding to a vulture fund, maybe even for fractions of cents on the dollar, claim their tax deduction and move on.
This is a problem because now the incentive payoffs for the debt holders have changed. Now it would be in the vulture funds interests to realise the BTC, even for a fraction of its current value and get their cash back. So long as the discount they received at the time of the transaction relative to the price of BTC was sufficient – this still holds true even if the instos engage in a pain trade and hold BTC all the way down to $10,000…. it could still fall further.
Anyhow it is interesting to observe, the one thing the market loves is discovering a weakness to exploit.
I don’t understand Bitcoin so I avoid it. I understand the software side of how it works, but I don’t understand how all that massive amount of computation provides actual value, or how that value is assessed. Calling it “mining” sounds cute for chumps, with all sorts of overtones of gold or diamond mining, but that’s all bullshit.
There also seems to be a humungous amoint of scammers and scamminess around it. Fried-Bankman, and that Chinese dude spring to mind…CZ or QT or whatever the fuck his initials are.
Long term, I think its value will trend towards zero
It’s quite simple to understand it:
Like every ponzi, it will make money(*) for many on up swings, it will lose some for many on down swings and whilst it lasts there will be a plethora of “smart investors” and those who “understand it better than anyone else”.
In the end only a handful of insiders will make it out like a bandit, the rest will lose everything. “The rest” means *everyone*
The new game theory came that US.gov will/is use it to dump its debt.
(*) = on paper/digital display
Yep, in response to boomers making a ponzi with housing little shits made an even worse ponzi backed by nothing but the mob mentality and more reams of faux intellectual bs propaganda. Ergh.
That said given the immense retardation of crowds of retards it wouldn’t surprise me if BTC eventually went to $1bn or to close to 0 next year because of some black swan.
Bet what you can afford to lose I guess.
Not sure how you came to that wrt bloomers. At best they were unintentional beneficiaries bc they were already positioned for the game that was made by western
capitalismcreditability.But like with every ponzi, only those who exit the scheme before the end cometh are those who will benefit. How do you exit the game which was made winnings for almost a 1/4 of a century?
They subconsciouisly or consciously knew what they were doing you’re retarded. But I’ll forgive you because you’re a massive wog. You’re still trying to work out how to make Chinese noodles into pastas and make that like “your personality” and all that. You poor thing.
yeah, nah
What “Triguboff-ites” made on RE and immigration is trivial to what Boommers made but will never spend (they will leave for their offspring to spend on V8 yankee utes).
Why are you trying to appear so thick when you ain’t?
The fuck you talkin’ about cunt. Even Napoli people wanne be from the north in …..that fuckin wog town. Miloni or some shit. Poof.
Read Lyn Alden’s Broken Money.This is the best book I’ve read on understanding what money is and how bitcoin fits into the picture.
It is a speculative thing, the “mining” is only to give it some credibility, sure you can buy dodgy things with it and no questions asked, but that is the only value it has, as in not monitored or regulated, aside from that it is just 1’s and 0’s
Gold doesn’t have the value it does because of its industrial uses.
Similarly, there is a speculative component to bitcoin’s price, but that’s not all of it.
Also, BTC is not very private these days. It’s not a very good tool for dodgy transactions. Monero and Zcash for that.
Gold has value as a physical wealth store, one that you can trade without having to be online, same as silver, the fact that they have a industrial demand side is a extra.
What most people fail to understand is that should the power go out, as in the CCP shuts it off becuase they can, or some other reason like a bushfire or thunderstorm, then you can not transact normally so anything online is useless.
This is the reason why metals still have value as they can be used when the cash runs out. Noting that 3rd world countries place a greater value on metals for a store of wealth than we do.
Gold stores wealth because it has a unique set of properties that make it better as a token of exchange than anything else. Bitcoin has been designed to share many of these properties but adding zero cost custody. I recommend Lyn Alden’s book ‘Broken Money’ where it’s all set out very clearly. I agree that if you’re worried about power and internet access then gold is important.
Certainly a lot of scammers around it, but at this point there are a lot of scammers advertising on youtube, so what you going to do.
If you really want to know how that computation provides value it has been discussed many times before on this site, but a quick recap, it creates a secure reliable record of transactions so that nobody can create any more bitcoin. The same thing that gives gold it’s value, or fiat money until the idiots get in charge and forget that controlling supply is what actually gives it value and end up destroying said value.
There’s such a diversity of commentary out there. Plenty of criticism on x for that piece you linked. I quite liked this one:
https://www.ccn.com/education/crypto/bitcoin-flipped-strategy-65b-market-cap-who-wins-btc-or-mstr/
Yes – fair article, but it didn’t really address the concern of Strategy as an ongoing entity and the risk that it could potentially be forced to disgorge some of its holding. If you could link some better criticism from X other than what is already beneath that tweet, I’d be interested to have a read.
Anyhow I agree that it is looking a little oversold and has bounced quite solidly this morning. According to the squiggles on my chart it could rally all the way up to 110k which is where I would expect heavy resistance in crossing back over the exponential trendline… after that ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ the last squiggle of support I have is around $85k.
I closed my poly bet for 3k on Ether as the move fell short by $4 🙁 and I now doubt that it will breach that low in the remainder of November.
The lows have kept coming. I’m HODLing. I can wait another cycle if I have to.
Changed my mind. Sold. I think this is dropping to $80k. Will buy back then.
Yes I was a little too hasty closing out my possy with ETH yesterday, but it does appear to be a little oversold imho and I thought it could be forming an intermediate bottom.
I was looking for a swing trade up to about 3.5k with ETH and possibly up to 100k for BTC, but went too tight and got washed out of a couple positions again today, although thinking of re-entering.
It has fallen pretty solidly for 4 weeks, so was starting to look for a bounce – while the rumour mongering re Saylor and the release of more MtGox coins might have been the driver of the easing until now, imho it will require a bit more of a trigger to drive it much lower from here.
At the same time I am looking for something to drive it higher than a bounce, and can’t identify one either.
Yesterday is looking like a hammer reversal, so it has given me enough confidence to put back on some sort term trades looking for a bounce while keeping in mind that the downtrend is still in play.
oh boy, that was either lettuce hands or very inspired.
probably lettuce hands though. Switching from HODLing to trading doesn’t work out for most people.
Some traders I have great respsect for and who I’ve been following for a few years pulled out…I decided to follow. I can’t see 150k happening this cycle anymore, which is a bit crap because I missed the top by quite a distance. You’re right about trading and HODLing. I’ll try sitting on my lettuce hands for a while.
Well now it hit 80k…I didn’t buy. Better not be the fn bottom.
Well it is sitting right on my bottom squiggle line of support, which is also where the 100wk moving average is. The fact that it has already pierced it to 80k is not encouraging.
There is nothing below it now in terms of support other than the 200wk moving average back in the mid 50ks… but between here and there, there are going to be a lot of those new treasury companies starting to disgorge their holdings.
Good read:
That one had a bit more substance although the devil is always in the detail “…even a catastrophic move lower in BTC would not force him to liquidate the core position.” What exactly is core and non-core?
It sounds as though holders of the stock would be the ones to get reamed if the price fell enough, but again it didn’t really deal with how the debt would be dealt with other than through equity issuance – which assumes that someone wants to participate in an equity raising… all of which would depend upon the BTC price and prospects at the time.
I haven’t read enough to claim to really understand what these guys are saying fully, but the objections you’ve raised are fairly obvious and must surely have been called out well before now. Saylor’s been doing this long enough to have shareholders make an issue of it at AGMs and so on.
Above, you mentioned that BTC has no yield…that’s not necessarily true. I don’t know what Strategy is doing with its BTC, but you can get interest for lending bitcoin at numerous exchanges. Not sure if it’s calculated on BTC lent or USD equivalent. You can also use BTC as collateral for borrowing.
You’d have to go and read MSTRs quartely and annual reports…or ask an AI to do it for you and report back.
I am not sure why someone would pay Saylor a premium to buy bitcoin, even with leverage, when bitcoin could just be bought.
Your name is sort of contrivedly woggy.
https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/digital-assets/matthew-sigel-deconstructing-strategy-mstr-premium-leverage-and-capital-structure/
Why not both?
In noise limited no less.
‘Migration-fuelled home loans driving Aussie dollar creation’
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/wonder-why-prices-are-up-migrationfuelled-home-loans-driving-aussie-dollar-creation-matt-barrie-says/news-story/aee5f39d34293a0fc70c909db242d045
Matt Barrie needs to get into politics.
Migration is the only gig in town now, without them buying houses it will all go tits up
https://archive.md/MomHl
All hail Sussan 2.0
Pretty soon they’ll need quotas for men.
Why did god make boongs. A new novel by Christopher Hitchens with a forward by Richard Dawkins.
Why did god make wogs. A novel by Gore Vidal with a forward by Dick Cheney.
Why did god make jews. A novel by John Howard with a forward by John Howard.
Why did god make micks. A novel by Tony Abboot with a forward by Pauline Hanson.
Why did god make chinks. A novel by Gerry Harvey and a forward by Paul Keating.
Why did god make spics. Just so there wasn’t so much ocean. A novel by Che Guavara and Chad Hollywood stars looking to avoid divorce like….thingos.
after “experiencing a sudden medical episode”
It’s safe and effective.
https://au.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/rob-hirst-midnight-oil-cancer-diagnosis-75330/
Once again a very healthy person. Fucking awesome drummer.
Glad I like my toxics. Not that I got the pftizer jab because I’m not a gay poof.
My Mum was killed by the vaccines, and my Niece developed heart problems which turned Into POTS and has ruined her life. Recently, my oldest friend, who I’ve known since school told me he had multiple myeloma, which is incurable and terminal. He’s a medical specialist, and the fittest and healthiest man I know.
The mRNA vaccine induced tsunami of injury and death rolls on.
With all due respect it sounds like you’re closely affected. I’ve known probably 2 suspect and they were distant people I used to know.
Five of my colleagues, including a bloke I’d worked with for over 20 years, dropped dead without warning (aka died of “suddenly) in the 6 months after the vaccines rolled out.
The management put huge pressure on staff to get vaxxed, including shaming and ostrasizing the unvaxxed, so almost everybody got jabbed except for 4 or 5 of us.
I worked there for 30 years, and we had one death off cancer, a drug overdose and a heart attack in all that time. Then 5 people just didn’t come to work in the space of a few months. One of them toppled over dead while having dinner with her family on holiday at the beach.
Another colleague went to bed with his fit and healthy 40-something wife, and woke up in the morning to find her lying stiff and cold beside him.
Those responsible for these hellish, worthless drugs, and for forcing them on us, are gonna burn in hell.
I hope so. Maybe it was a bad batch isolated to your area.
An interesting ZH article on the Trans and furry cult, the undertone suggesting that it is likely Government agencies or other actors of chaos (agent provocateurs) are aware of the mental instability of individuals who have these traits, as anyone who can create a mind model that they are in fact another sex have already effectively proven they can be isolated into accepting a false reality.
If so there has been an and endless pool of borderline psychotic deviants to draw from. I mean I knew that the trannies were a lot of school shooter – but I had no idea that they have been basically ALL of the school shooters in the past couple years:
https://x.com/MikeBenzCyber/status/1961540653004804568
They are mostly young men who are faced with a world they do not know how to fit into. Men are marginalised, their achievements minimised and their ancestors maligned. They grow up weak because nobody is working to make sure they grow up strong. Single mothers, absent fathers. Since they cannot see how to fit in, they decide there must be something fundamentally wrong with them, and sex is the most fundamental thing they can latch on to. It’s an ideal escape since sex change can never be achieved. It is always a work in progress. Therefore it serves as an excellent addiction; the purpose of which is to stop the mind thinking about problems that it cannot find a solution for. I suspect most of these boys have not been cared for well enough and as a result cannot relax into who they are because there’s no one looking after the things they cannot cope with yet. Their circle of security was broken. Some have been abused. I talk from experience with a few of them, including within my extended family. It’s very sad.
Yeah, there is a common theme here. I noticed it at some point and mentally filed it under “crazy people doing crazy things”.
Normies are starting to notice now because both the Trump and Kirk shooters have recently been identified as being nto the trans/furry bullshit, which seems to be more than a little coincidental.
I think that they powers that disrupt are always on the lookout for people that are easily influenced, as such they target those groups, disafected young men, college girls, refugees and liberal women are all targets for them. They are the useful idiots that they can use to do their dirty work.
Anyone wanna do Irish jokes?
Why did the Irishman read MB?
He thought housing was gonna crash.
Why did the Irishman do IT?
He did it for the social life.
Ooo Irish joke.
Why did the Irishman join the IRA?
So after they won the government could enrich hoteliers with government funded nigger guests.
I think I should be on Graham Norton.
Why did the Irishman use Uber Eats?
So he could write a review about it on the internet.
Why did the Irishman become a millienial?
He did it for the tatts.
Why did the Irishman order Chinese food?
His mum wanted Chop Suey.
Who remembers George Speight? Based Fijian coup doer.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Speight
I’ve been to Fiji. The locals clearly saw what was happening with the Indian locust invasion/replacement and they’re not bothered about being called racists.
I’d say they keep a pretty tight lid on the Indians, and the Muslims specifically
https://www.city-journal.org/article/minnesota-welfare-fraud-somalia-al-shabaab
This isn’t the only story I’ve seen from this city. Yes it’s United States. But do you think this type of thing is not happening in Australia. Doesn’t matter if it counts as gdp. Australia is different, there is no alternative and we’re a first world country.
Yeah. The western world is receiving the best and brightest surgeons and engineers from Somalia and other African paradises.
The sane parts of the world are laughing at the West in general and Australia in particular. Giving passports to fillipinos for hairdressing FFS. They are maids and musicians in Singapore, the middle east and on cruise ships. They earn money, remit it home, and go back when their contract is over. Letting in violent shitheads from Africa warzones FFS. It’s either stupidity masquerading as kindness or deliberate subversion. Given that most of Labor’s front bench come from uni activist, not labouring or trade, backgrounds, I think it’s more likely the latter.
You cannot reason with leftist subversion because their moral philosophies are ultimately built on nihilism – the idea that only empty nothingness lies at the heart of existence. Pauline Hanson falls into this trap all the time, attempting to justify herself in their moral or ideological terms. Completely unnecessary.
To counter them, you need to know your first principals, and the logical consequences.
If you talk in those terms, you’ve stepped outside their frame of reference. Discussion over.
If you want to keep arguing, you’ll observe how easy it is to drill down in to the roots of their words and have them admit that they do not actually know what their or your words mean. I’ve done this on numerous occasions. I once spent a couple of hours convincing a journalist that there is absolute abstract truth in mathmatics, literally that 1+1=2, in order to force her to admit that not everything is a mattter of perpsective and that identification and hence counting is a legimate use of our perceptual apparatus.
This is why you see people get up and say that they don’t know what a “biological man” or “biological woman” means…because they think that they don’t think anything can mean anything. They try to act as if they are human Chinese rooms given a translation manual written by marxists. It’s not true of course. Once they are forced to admit that meaning is real then the rest of their fake intellectual edifice can be dismantled. It’s a lot of work though.
More and more in the UK people are saying plainly “it’s ours, now fuck off”. I think it’s very likely that if it isn’t dealt with very soon, Enoch Powel’s promise of rivers of blood will come true.
I suspect it’s closer to deliberate subversion. Even just as a power grab.
I agree with stepping out of the new left progressive frame of dialectic. It’s like talking normally to a crazy person speaking in toungues, it reinforces the crazy person speaking In toungues as saying something worth taking seriously at face value.
Yep radical subjectivism, particularly mixed with emotionalism has poisoned the societal soil.
It all started to go wrong in the 60s with birth control, feminism, free love, eastern mysticism, drug use etc. Hippies are the worst thing to ever happen.
I wonder whether it was all something that just happened or whether it was engineered.
I heard about this book but I haven’t read it.
Weird Scenes Inside the Canyon: Laurel Canyon, Covert Ops & the Dark Heart of the Hippy Dream
This is part of Grok’s analysis of the book:
>McGowan posits that the Laurel Canyon phenomenon wasn’t a spontaneous grassroots uprising of peace-loving dropouts against the establishment. Rather, it was a manufactured psy-op (psychological operation) orchestrated by intelligence agencies like the CIA to neutralize the anti-war movement and steer youth culture.
>Military and Intelligence Ties: Many canyon stars had parents or relatives deeply embedded in the U.S. military-industrial complex. For instance, Jim Morrison’s father was a high-ranking admiral who commanded forces during the Gulf of Tonkin incident (a flashpoint for Vietnam escalation); Frank Zappa’s dad worked on chemical weapons at Edgewood Arsenal; and David Crosby’s family had OSS (precursor to CIA) links.
Street shitting in Australia – coming soon to a street near you.
https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1BhVVU39Tn/
I’ve driven past an Indian woman taking a dump in a suburban Canberra street in broad daylight.
How does an adult get into a situation where they have to do that? Or do they just decide they want to have a shit, and if there’s no facilities nearby they do it in the street?
Low iq. A special sauce mixture coming to a gene pool near you.
The facebook link I shared is an Aussie pulling over to tell this Indian shithead to pull his pants up and piss off. The man deserves our heartiest congratulations and support!
Import the 3rd world and become the 3rd world
They’re like birds. They simply shit wherever they are when they need a shit. They have not evolved to understand you don’t shit in your nest or shit where you eat. Or shit where you bathe. As we know, they even have festivals where they throw shit at each other. They’re a very pro-shit people.
Hope you understand that 150yrs is a trivial time in “evolution” terms.
Great Stink
Fresh import Poojeets are just not used to availability of semi-public toilets everywhere thus resort to ‘quick and easy’. When Albanese went to India to agree on import of the new batch of them, he did not request the toilet training. Neither was any single PM before him when they bought some Indians to import them.
Don’t you worry, within a generation poojeets will dump the public-dump and drive a V8 ute thinking it’s a sport car bc 2 doors, wear a mullet atop the vacuous globe on the shoulders and have a
cardboardbeef sausage at Bunnings on weekends whilst dobbing in the neighbor for a piece of cardboard in the rubbish bin instead in recyclables.‘…mainstream debates often avoid the root structure and instead focus on the speed of the treadmill. We argue about 2% vs. 3% inflation rather than who issues money, who captures seigniorage, and who eats the losses when cycles turn.’
Not sure if this had been posted but an article from a while back discussing the architecture of money.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hidden-architecture-debt-how-private-banks-captured-global-economy
BTC back up above 91k..it’s been a gentle rise since the lows. I suspect the long term holders will start selling again when it gets above 100k…but who knows.
The halving cycle was comprehensible. Now that 95% of BTC is mined, the BTC price will be driven more by macro factors and other market factors. It’s trickier to understand.
I believe that BTC is going to become a central bank reserve asset. More an more governments are buying BTC as “strategic reserves”. Texas is the latest, but weirdly it bought the BTC ETF rather than BTC. However, “strategic reserves” is a phrase normally used for stockpiles of important commodities….think of Joseph and his wheat warehouses, so I’m not really sure how governments expect to use these “strategic reserves”, especially state governments. Perhaps they see it as a way to settle bills between one another. Perhaps it just speculative asset at this stage. Either way, as more governments own bitcoin and use it, pressure on Central banks to use it will multiply.
Consider:
For BTC to have a market cap of 27t, the price of BTC would have to be ~$1.35 million USD. That price will be reached, according to most conservative regression on the chart below in 2035.
https://charts.bitbo.io/price-prediction/
FYI A linear regression on the log of the BTC price since 2011 gives an r^2 of 0.88.
Of course the point at which BTC market cap = gold market cap may be further away than that if gold keeps rising too. Might be closer if the reverse…eg BTC stealing gold market share.
So…knowing that past performance does not necssarily indicate future performance, HODL I guess. Comments appreciated.
BTC has grown so large that there are a lot of players that have every interest to keep it going – Tether has become a digital Eurobond and is one of the main means by which people in the 3rd world avoid hyper-inflation…. as much as it pains me it also lends credence to Fly’s theory that the US will use crypto as the dumping ground for its money printing.
Never-the-less Tether have been absolutely minting it with the free carry for the past couple years and from what I’ve been reading have also been responsible for a large part of the Gold price rise, with their digital Gold linked token.
I genuinely don’t know where it will go long term, but I genuinely feel that the uncertainty around Strategy atm is providing a lot of overhang in terms of downside price threat until resolved.
My short term view (the next month) is that it is unlikely to breach the 100day MA in any bounce, and have most of my downside carry plays above 120k, a smaller set at 110k and I have some speculative downside ones at 100k which I will liquidate if it breaches 96k. I have a couple tiny out of the monies at 80k for pure speculation which I will likely see neg theta away to nothing. If it goes above 105k I’ll probably dump 50% of my 110ks and the remainder if it pips above the 100day.
*To prevent annoyance from the return of the Coldsore, while I generally avoid making open ended investment recommendations, I am happy to discuss short term trading strategies which operate for a finite period of time and have clearly identified stops and exits.
Phrases like “downside carry plays above 120k” don’t readily make sense to me. I’m no options expert. Presumably this means you’ve got some options thingy making you money as the BTC price falls below 120k, and some more at 110k.
Pretty much – I have some well in the money options that are at a discount because of the time value of money and uncertainty. As they approach expiry the discount declines, which is the net carry or Theta (time value expiring), that you earn.
Assuming the price remains fairly constant, if they are in the money ie the price above strike, then the discount you earn accretes back to you over time until expiry, if they are a premium ie the price is below the strike, then the premium accretes away from you over time as you approach expiry.
I like them because you can work out your initial exposure beforehand and you can spread your risk across multiple positions. While they are bets and not classic derivatives or options, they still have some qualities to them that can lead them to be compared to US (one touch) or European (expiry only) options.
Basically my view in my trade set up I have described above, is that for the next month BTC is likely to stay under 100k with a small downside possibility back to 80k.
Wow, you’re still flogging the btc is going to be worthless horse.
I guess I shouldn’t be surprised. I also don’t care enough to actually read the article, so there’s that if that’s not actually what you are doing.
I thought someone put some Blistex on you and you had cleared up and gone away… amusing that you seem to have ‘remembered’ your password to your old account and not running your more recent commentbot account.
Nope, there had been a lot of spruiking of BTC from 70k to 120k, and in the order of balance given the price falls, I thought the subject should be revisited to ensure that those same strong views remained:
I generally avoid giving specific advice online to buy this or buy that, I like to explain things and why I may hold something, sometimes I get it right, sometimes I get it wrong. But the euphoria that may be genuine when spruiking it, is generally absent when you call it quits, as it can have social consequences if you forget to inform anyone you may have influenced… a lesson I learned way back in the first mining boom.
Anyhow, its good to see you (metaphorically), like it is good to see a bad cold sore on the face of someone you hate (literally).
There’s this wonderful invention called a computer, it has software called a web browser on it. You may even use it to access this very site. A feature of these is that they can save your login and password for a specific site.
A limitation pertaining to this is it is tied to a specific computer or account.
Some people have these things called “jobs” where they have access to computers other than their own. Some of these jobs involve significant downtime where there isn’t actually anything to be doing other than being there babysitting stuff.
Sorry you can’t manage to work this sort of thing out for yourself.
Ugh… TLDR – your inner monologue is like a Dementor, sucking the life out anyone who reads it.
My neighbour was in nam and died of agent orange. He was a Dutchman cleaning out the insides of the planes. He deserves more dignity and respect.
We’re supposed to care about a bunch of brown nipped vermin…
Well, there was agent Orange. It was a defoliant used to clear jungle so that Charlie couldn’t hide in the greenery. It was highly toxic, and would Fuck You Up.
There was also the job of cleaning the fuel tanks on F-111 aircraft, which exposed the cleaners to highly toxic chemicals which would also Fuck You Up.
These are two different things. Either way, lots of people died horribly. It seems unlikely though, that there were RAAF maintenance techs who cleaned F-111 fuel tanks and were also exposed to agent Orange.
I’m not saying your neighbour didn’t die, just that it was likely to be one or the other, but not both.
Also, if he was Dutch, who cares? They’re cunts.
AI says Skyhawk and Super Sabre. The image I had in my head was they dropped it out of barrels or some shit out the back of the big plane. The fuck do I know. That’s the story I heard anyway. They were nice but yeah dutch are often cunce.
Agent Orange was sprayed out of nozzles in specially fitted Hercs. Google for Opeation Ranch Hand, for pics.