Public HEALTH ENGLAND TECHNICAL BRIEFING AUGUST 20

Recent release of data by public health england

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009243/Technical_Briefing_21.pdf

I like their data because its very honest

The most relevant table is table 5

Key numbers

Unvaccinated <50yo

Deaths 72

Cases 178,240

CFR 0.04%

Vaccinated <50yo

Deaths 27

Cases 40,544

CFR 0.067%

The argument will be that the vaccinated <50yo are more likely to have comorbidities, and that is likely very true

But the mortality rate is still 70% higher in the vaccinated group

Small numbers though , prone to noise

And please note that the “deaths” numbers reflects deaths within 28 days of a positive covid test not an actual death ascribed by a doctor to complicactions of covid

Could the higher mortality rate be caused by vaccine complications in young people? It’s certainly very possible, since it only takes a few vaccine deaths to skew the % since the numbers are very small

Note that around 60% of the UK under 50yo is currently vaccinated, and that has been fairly static for a couple months now

Chart showing take up by age group

Does the lower number of cases in the vaccinated group suggest that the vaccine protects against infection (of any severity)? or are those who have been prioritised the vaccine (with underlying comorbidities) less likely to go out and expose themselves?

Here is a very interesting further data point

Partially vaccinated <50yo

Deaths 11

Cases 83,653

CFR 0.013%

The CFR for partially vaxxed is waaaay lower

Two possible reasons

-the vaccines are most effective immediately after being given (ie the first dose, waiting for the second)

-the young people currently undergoing the vaccine regimen are likely to be free of comorbidities (since they had to wait until after the high risk groups)

The hospitalisation numbers seem out of proportion in favour of the vaxxed

5000 (2.8%) visits in the unvaccinated group vs 700 (1.5%) in the fully vaccinated group

I wonder what the cause for the discrepancy deaths vs hospitalisations is?

Maybe the unvaccinated are more likely to acquire a detectable infection (regardless of symptoms) – remember the hospitalisations can be for any cause, not necessarily covid related. Could break your leg and incidentally test positive to covid

Again 631 (out of 83,653 cases) for the partially vaccinated is the lowest which again suggests to me that the vaccine is most effective immediately after injection, and wanes quickly

Now for the oldies, the numbers are much more stark

Unvaccinated >50yo

Deaths 318

Cases 4,891

CFR 6.5%

Vaccinated >50yo

Deaths 652

Cases 32,828

CFR 1.98%

Big difference in CFR – definitely worth being vaccinated if you are in this age group

Overall case numbers very low for both groups, which does suggest maybe the oldies aren’t mingling as much as the young

Again, in the over 50s we somehow see the partially vaxxed with the lowest mortality of all, but the numbers are small and potentiall noisy

Partially vaccinated >50yo

Deaths 91

Cases 6303

CFR 1.44%

For me, the take home is

If you are over 50, you’d be an idiot to not be vaccinated

For young people, it is very equivocal – possibly no benefit to personal risk (may in fact increase risk due to risk of vaccination complications), but potentially there is a population benefit by reducing the number of overall infections

Interested to discuss

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bjw678

I’d say even the approx 75% reduction in death for the over 50’s is not overwhelmingly compelling considering potential side effects or long term problems.

bjw678

Both the higher case numbers in the unvaxxed and the higher death rate in the vaxxed could be explained by less people getting tested when vaxxed.
Do we have data for numbers of total tests or negative tests?
Potentially those who have just had 1 shot are the most likely to be tested, again affecting the stats.

Last edited 1 month ago by bjw678
Reus's Large MEMBER

So it appears that the success of ivermectin in India is being suppressed, do we still believe that this is about health and not control and money

https://gumshoenews.com/2021/08/22/ivermectin-wins-in-india/

Chinese Astroturfer

I think you also have to take into account the vaccinated taking risks now that the unvaccinated might think twice about. Almost all the spread in the UK at this point would be from the vaccinated I imagine.

Chinese Astroturfer

Am I misinterpreting it?

Over 50 vaccinated is 32k compared to 4k unvaccinated?

Last edited 1 month ago by Chinese Astroturfer
Chinese Astroturfer

You’re right I glanced at it and thought it was the other way around.

DjenkA

it all went well until: “…you’d be an idiot to not be vaccinated”

It pisses on everything said before, all over it a golden shower. In the end it invalidates anything said before. It is not the ‘to vax or not to wax there is the question‘ but the emotional bit which does the aforementioned shower.
Perhaps I’m just too conservative.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moAZ3AsyhLU&t=45s

robert2013

He said “if you are >50” and the data does bear that interpretation. Please don’t get emotional, argue with the data.

Freddy

Cheers Coming.

I presume an asymptomatic person that comes out positive in a Covid test would count towards the CFR calculations? If that is correct then the >50 CFR would be overstated due to lack of testing. i.e. retirees would not be getting tested for work reasons, as a precaution to protect their parents, etc.

bjw678

If you had the vax, why would you get the test unless you where really sick?
I’d bet the test rate is much higher in unvaxxed than vaxxed.

bjw678

Does the data give negative numbers?

Freddy

Just reading that UK have also recently introduced a rule that close contacts don’t need to be tested if they have been vaccinated. That would lower the CFR (increase case count) for unvaccinated vs vaccinated.

Do you know what % of population above or below 50 have been vaccinated? I think the comparison of hospitalisations and deaths vs that figure would be more meaningful than the case count.

Last edited 1 month ago by Freddy
Freddy

I come up with ~3 times more likely to die unvaccinated for over 50, and ~5 times more likely for under 50. It doesn’t sound right.

LSWCHP

My umber 1 objection to the Vax is the potential for long term negative effects which can’t be quantified.

Along with that unquantifiable problem, in the shorter term I’m see Dominello with Bell’s Palsy, two of my 50-ish colleagues dropping dead without warning and an obvious campaign of suppression of bad Vax news, like the kid having a fit in Sydney the other day.

I’m avoiding the vax as long as I possibly can.

Chinese Astroturfer

There is no rush. At worst you spend this summer not going to pubs and restaurants, forced to wear a mask at work.

Whatever.

Think of the money you can put towards something worthwhile, you can avoid social engagements you don’t want to attend.

There’s a mentality right now that we get 80% vaccination and we’re suddenly free.

That’s not happening unless they let the virus rip and they won’t be doing that in Australia. Lockdowns. restrictions, closed borders (except to VIPs, wealthy, foreign workers) indefinitely. Just less severe lockdowns than nighttime curfews and fining people for being in a park. I’m sure they’ll heavily fine anyone caught using a fake vaccination status though. Probably throw them in jail to make an example.

And if they let the virus rip that’s when then pandemic starts in earnest and that isn’t exactly liberating. Do you really want to be going to venues or doing activities that massively increase your chance of catching COVID especially if you have contact with elderly people or those with weak immune systems?

It would be second session on the 1st day if this were a Test match.

bjw678

I’d say the WORST case is you have a stroke from the vax and live as a vegetable for 30 years.

bjw678

Really? There are worse things than death.

Chinese Astroturfer

Not everyone has the same level of risk. There’s someone’s general level of health, diet, age, if you work with the public, frequent populated areas, whether your partner does, do you have children, then maybe you should run the gauntlet with the vaccine.

But even if you’re at high risk you could go for many years without ever catching COVID, and even when you catch it you might have few symptoms.

Even if a high risk you need to weigh up the fact the vaccine is not much help after 4-6 months. Even if fully vaccinated, you’re only ever 4 months away from being considered ‘unprotected’.

Skronkman

This exactly!

separately, I can’t login or retrieve me password?

Peachy

This has been tested & confirmed working overnight.

perhaps you entered email address incorrectly when you registered?

Chinese Astroturfer

The IFR is nothing. We’re 18 months into this it’s 0.2% including all the old people and slobs.

Chinese Astroturfer

IFR is tiny. That we can estimate with certainty.

Chinese Astroturfer

That darts player who died today is a diabetic who caught COVID on his way back to Australia back in March 2020.

But in recent months his health took a turn for the worse.

If you look in his instagram there’s a photo in June of him in a hospital bed wearing compression socks to treat presumably thrombosis.

Maybe another vaccine statistic?

Last edited 1 month ago by Chinese Astroturfer
canuckdownunder

You might be on to something here. There wasn’t any Lifeline info so suicide is probably off the table.