Recent release of data by public health england
I like their data because its very honest
The most relevant table is table 5
Key numbers
Unvaccinated <50yo
Deaths 72
Cases 178,240
CFR 0.04%
Vaccinated <50yo
Deaths 27
Cases 40,544
CFR 0.067%
The argument will be that the vaccinated <50yo are more likely to have comorbidities, and that is likely very true
But the mortality rate is still 70% higher in the vaccinated group
Small numbers though , prone to noise
And please note that the “deaths” numbers reflects deaths within 28 days of a positive covid test not an actual death ascribed by a doctor to complicactions of covid
Could the higher mortality rate be caused by vaccine complications in young people? It’s certainly very possible, since it only takes a few vaccine deaths to skew the % since the numbers are very small
Note that around 60% of the UK under 50yo is currently vaccinated, and that has been fairly static for a couple months now
Does the lower number of cases in the vaccinated group suggest that the vaccine protects against infection (of any severity)? or are those who have been prioritised the vaccine (with underlying comorbidities) less likely to go out and expose themselves?
Here is a very interesting further data point
Partially vaccinated <50yo
Deaths 11
Cases 83,653
CFR 0.013%
The CFR for partially vaxxed is waaaay lower
Two possible reasons
-the vaccines are most effective immediately after being given (ie the first dose, waiting for the second)
-the young people currently undergoing the vaccine regimen are likely to be free of comorbidities (since they had to wait until after the high risk groups)
The hospitalisation numbers seem out of proportion in favour of the vaxxed
5000 (2.8%) visits in the unvaccinated group vs 700 (1.5%) in the fully vaccinated group
I wonder what the cause for the discrepancy deaths vs hospitalisations is?
Maybe the unvaccinated are more likely to acquire a detectable infection (regardless of symptoms) – remember the hospitalisations can be for any cause, not necessarily covid related. Could break your leg and incidentally test positive to covid
Again 631 (out of 83,653 cases) for the partially vaccinated is the lowest which again suggests to me that the vaccine is most effective immediately after injection, and wanes quickly
Now for the oldies, the numbers are much more stark
Unvaccinated >50yo
Deaths 318
Cases 4,891
CFR 6.5%
Vaccinated >50yo
Deaths 652
Cases 32,828
CFR 1.98%
Big difference in CFR – definitely worth being vaccinated if you are in this age group
Overall case numbers very low for both groups, which does suggest maybe the oldies aren’t mingling as much as the young
Again, in the over 50s we somehow see the partially vaxxed with the lowest mortality of all, but the numbers are small and potentiall noisy
Partially vaccinated >50yo
Deaths 91
Cases 6303
CFR 1.44%
For me, the take home is
If you are over 50, you’d be an idiot to not be vaccinated
For young people, it is very equivocal – possibly no benefit to personal risk (may in fact increase risk due to risk of vaccination complications), but potentially there is a population benefit by reducing the number of overall infections
Interested to discuss
I’d say even the approx 75% reduction in death for the over 50’s is not overwhelmingly compelling considering potential side effects or long term problems.
the only thing I would say is that it only reflects deaths with ,not from, Covid
but even then the case numbers are way higher proportionally in the unvaxxed group
suggests to me that it is effective
of course , the ARR is only 4.5% but that’s a lot higher than the incidence of severe vaccine side effects
(of course you may not necessarily catch the virus, while you will inevitably be exposed to vaccine side effects )
im fairly comfortable recommending it to older people
Both the higher case numbers in the unvaxxed and the higher death rate in the vaxxed could be explained by less people getting tested when vaxxed.
Do we have data for numbers of total tests or negative tests?
Potentially those who have just had 1 shot are the most likely to be tested, again affecting the stats.
So it appears that the success of ivermectin in India is being suppressed, do we still believe that this is about health and not control and money
https://gumshoenews.com/2021/08/22/ivermectin-wins-in-india/
I think you also have to take into account the vaccinated taking risks now that the unvaccinated might think twice about. Almost all the spread in the UK at this point would be from the vaccinated I imagine.
that really doesn’t make sense since unvaxxed are way over-represented proportionately in case numbers
Am I misinterpreting it?
Over 50 vaccinated is 32k compared to 4k unvaccinated?
you’re selectively looking at over 50s?
80-90% are vaccinated in that age group, so proportionately unvax are equally represented
And in the under 50s, the unvax are way over represented
You’re right I glanced at it and thought it was the other way around.
it all went well until: “…you’d be an idiot to not be vaccinated”
It pisses on everything said before, all over it a golden shower. In the end it invalidates anything said before. It is not the ‘to vax or not to wax there is the question‘ but the emotional bit which does the aforementioned shower.
Perhaps I’m just too conservative.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moAZ3AsyhLU&t=45s
He said “if you are >50” and the data does bear that interpretation. Please don’t get emotional, argue with the data.
Cheers Coming.
I presume an asymptomatic person that comes out positive in a Covid test would count towards the CFR calculations? If that is correct then the >50 CFR would be overstated due to lack of testing. i.e. retirees would not be getting tested for work reasons, as a precaution to protect their parents, etc.
Not sure about your specific example , but yes the IFR will always be lower than the CFR
probably more so for the unvaxxed since they tend to be loose cunts or don’t want to lose work
rather than vaxxed who will tend to be panicky hypochondriacs
hard to quantify that but probably not so much a factor in over 50yos, more so in under 50yos
making me even more hesitant to recommend vaccination for young people when the starting risk IFR is possibly 0.004% for instance
obviously anyone in medical extremis is going to be tested for Covid, so there certainly won’t be any meaningful number of MISSED Covid deaths
If you had the vax, why would you get the test unless you where really sick?
I’d bet the test rate is much higher in unvaxxed than vaxxed.
why would you get the test anyway unless you were really sick?
most likely people to get tested are panicky hypochondriacs, not people refusing vaccines
Does the data give negative numbers?
Just reading that UK have also recently introduced a rule that close contacts don’t need to be tested if they have been vaccinated. That would lower the CFR (increase case count) for unvaccinated vs vaccinated.
Do you know what % of population above or below 50 have been vaccinated? I think the comparison of hospitalisations and deaths vs that figure would be more meaningful than the case count.
There’s a chart which shows it in the post
80-90% for >50
60-70% for <50
i didn’t know that about vaxxed not being required to be tested
do you have a link ?
that would markedly skew the interpretation
doesn’t change the CFR by definition , but obviously IFR would be much closer to CFR in the unvaxxed group and much much lower in the vaxxed group
(which makes vaccines more appealing )
I come up with ~3 times more likely to die unvaccinated for over 50, and ~5 times more likely for under 50. It doesn’t sound right.
My umber 1 objection to the Vax is the potential for long term negative effects which can’t be quantified.
Along with that unquantifiable problem, in the shorter term I’m see Dominello with Bell’s Palsy, two of my 50-ish colleagues dropping dead without warning and an obvious campaign of suppression of bad Vax news, like the kid having a fit in Sydney the other day.
I’m avoiding the vax as long as I possibly can.
There is no rush. At worst you spend this summer not going to pubs and restaurants, forced to wear a mask at work.
Whatever.
Think of the money you can put towards something worthwhile, you can avoid social engagements you don’t want to attend.
There’s a mentality right now that we get 80% vaccination and we’re suddenly free.
That’s not happening unless they let the virus rip and they won’t be doing that in Australia. Lockdowns. restrictions, closed borders (except to VIPs, wealthy, foreign workers) indefinitely. Just less severe lockdowns than nighttime curfews and fining people for being in a park. I’m sure they’ll heavily fine anyone caught using a fake vaccination status though. Probably throw them in jail to make an example.
And if they let the virus rip that’s when then pandemic starts in earnest and that isn’t exactly liberating. Do you really want to be going to venues or doing activities that massively increase your chance of catching COVID especially if you have contact with elderly people or those with weak immune systems?
It would be second session on the 1st day if this were a Test match.
Surely the worst case scenario is that you die from Covid , no?
I’d say the WORST case is you have a stroke from the vax and live as a vegetable for 30 years.
stupid response
Really? There are worse things than death.
you understand that the virus can also result in negative outcomes that aren’t death right?
Not everyone has the same level of risk. There’s someone’s general level of health, diet, age, if you work with the public, frequent populated areas, whether your partner does, do you have children, then maybe you should run the gauntlet with the vaccine.
But even if you’re at high risk you could go for many years without ever catching COVID, and even when you catch it you might have few symptoms.
Even if a high risk you need to weigh up the fact the vaccine is not much help after 4-6 months. Even if fully vaccinated, you’re only ever 4 months away from being considered ‘unprotected’.
This exactly!
separately, I can’t login or retrieve me password?
This has been tested & confirmed working overnight.
perhaps you entered email address incorrectly when you registered?
A 6.4% CFR is very high
versus some unquantifiable risk of long term vax complications
unless you’re <50 yo but I remember you being a boomer
i am scaremongering a little bit though since the IFR is probably way lower, given the loose definition of a Covid death
The IFR is nothing. We’re 18 months into this it’s 0.2% including all the old people and slobs.
We don’t know the IFR
but the CFR for all ages current NSW outbreak is about 1%
UK by comparison overall is 0.24%
now LWSCHP is an old cunt – as you say risks vary widely, but it is much higher for old people
he needs to take that into account
IFR is tiny. That we can estimate with certainty.
depends on your definition of tiny
and depends on what your age/weight/comorbidities are
for young healthy people yes the IFR is tiny
for fat old cunts it certainly isnt
That darts player who died today is a diabetic who caught COVID on his way back to Australia back in March 2020.
But in recent months his health took a turn for the worse.
If you look in his instagram there’s a photo in June of him in a hospital bed wearing compression socks to treat presumably thrombosis.
Maybe another vaccine statistic?
You might be on to something here. There wasn’t any Lifeline info so suicide is probably off the table.