So with BTC now once again below 60k where to now?
It looks to me to have decisively fallen below the 200wma – historically that could suggest we are within 10-20% of the bottom, which would take it to the mid upper 40’s around $47k, just dipping below 50k, which seems reasonable if this was a normal cycle.
But is this a normal cycle? We haven’t even had the trigger for the capitulation sell off yet, it has just been a slow relentless grind all the way down from $120k to $60k.
Then there is this guy…
Michael Saylor lost $6bn in a day back in the tech wreck of 2000, which adjusted for inflation I reckon he would be approaching again today, albeit over a longer time frame, having lost $16bn of value since October last year…. but as he still holds another $64bn in Bitcoin through ‘Strategy’ the possibility still exists that he could beat his previous record.
There must still be some true believers out there? Robert? Peachy? Is Saylor still the Messiah or is he just a very naughty boy?
Where to now? What’s the play? HODL for longer or get the hell out of Dodge?
BTC to zero eventually, I reckon. There just seems to be too much dodginess about it, and eventually everybody involved will have had enough, and there will be a rush for the exits.
In the meantime, fortunes will no doubt be made and lost
Indeed.
new cryptos can be ‘printed’ ad-infinitude and no amount of artificial limitation will compensate for limitations imposed by nature.
I thought 65k would be the bottom so I am out. I think the market wants to test Saylor. Strategy holds ~840000 BTC. It’s around 5% of all bitcoin if you take out the estimated number of lost coins. On any measure this is a huge risk. Not only because a forced sale will tank the BTC price, but also because the value of the BTC holdings dwarfs the value of Strategy’s software business. The dividend requirements of STRC and STRK are the part that could trigger forced sales. Understanding exactly how those work is beyond my interest and possibly my ability. It seems to me that you should not hold BTC in a falling market unless you understand how those things work.
The long term future of bitcoin is unclear now. It is not for everyday transactions. It’s slow, expensive, and not private. Stablecoins are faster and cheaper and will no longer primarily be used to provide USD liquidity to BTC markets. They are taking over cross border transfers. Zcash and monero offer privacy. BTC’s decentralisation and public ledger are advantages that remain, but who really needs to pay a premium for decentralisation? Which leaves its fixed supply, making it arguably a harder form of money than gold.
My view for some years has been that BTC is ideal money for central banks and for intergovernmental transfers. With BTC, governments don’t have to trust one another, can see the source of every bit of BTC, and don’t have to ship gold bars which can meet trouble in transit. However, for this to happen the BTC price needs to be big enough and liquid enough to support transactions of very high value. I used to think it was inevitable, but I’m not sure now because because of the other coins that have overtaken BTC in speed, cost and privacy.
It’s too early IMO to call the BTC cycle dead. I expect the cycle to continue to follow the halvings but with less than 1 million BTC still mineable, it’s not the halvings that are causing the cycle directly. It’s more like an echo of halvings past embedded in market dynamics. BTC could reach up to $150k IMO.
Yeah – I’ve never been a believer in the ‘digital gold’ narrative, believing that it had to ‘do work’ (a fat lot of good that belief did for me).
Regardless, even if the digital gold narrative is valid, I don’t see how an asset that can be bought up by an ex-coke head trying to corner a market, can be seen as the sort of digital gold that Reserve Banks and Governments will ever take seriously… I personally think a lot of Trumps pandering to crypto is just patronising, tolerance to a problem that they believe will eventually die of its own accord.
Crypto is such a twenty ten’s story.
BTC,
meh
farken immos tearing up the fabric of the culture.
Must be a poojeet or a negro, eh?
it’s over for shitcon imo. there might be one more cycle in this piece of shit but people are starting to wake up to how retarded this “asset” is. at least with AI data centres you get a chatbot you can write porno fan fics with from all the electricity you waste, with crypto you don’t get anything.