Those indomitable Yemeni corsairs, the rogues of the Red Sea, the Houthis, just blocked the Bab-Al-Mandeb to all Saudi vessels (meaning now oil that originally flowed through Hormuz from Saudi Arabia now that was being re-routed to the Red Sea has to go via Suez and around Africa to reach the medium light oriented refineries of SEA, their principal destination) . Congratulations to oil bulls if mentally retarded Americans and their arrogant and terminally inbred Gulf Arab vassals don’t get the picture and fast and put a complete and irrevocable end to this conflict because shit has now, as many say, just gotten real. Whether this will impact upon Australia and it’s seeming ability to avoid any serious economic repercussions via it’s absurd bargaining power and general demographic irrelevance remains to be seen, but misery or extended and exacerbated misery for many (such as in the Philippines and Thailand) awaits. This continuing-to-drag-on-conflict has utterly vindicated myself and Richard Spencer (though in the latter case, for the wrong reasons) in all of our political predictions and recommendations.
Now many in the world are going to find out why Bab-Al-Mandeb translates literally into the “gate of tears”. A political and diplomatic solution is now needed (not a military one), quickly.
The spinelessness of Albo throughout this entire conflict who was the first to jump on board internationally in support of it (though he is to be commended for his backroom petrol contract bargaining) and the absolute idiocy of all aus right wing parties (lnp and phon, the latter of which has fortunately politically peaked) who wanted to commit men and material to it, will never be forgiven or forgetten, at least to me. when you make the greens look good you know you have done something wrong.
america should have taken the MOU and walked, it was about the best deal the world was going to get. the gulf arab pygmy states getting 86ed now is just too painful for me to watch (on a personal interest level, obviously it is satisfying otherwise), world economy cant possibly just shrug this off anymore.
We did commit an AWACS jet not sure if it’s still there
Tbh we should have committed something like an air warfare destroyer some time ago and assigned it defensive duties only. It’s invaluable drone and missile combat experience, is now in the global interest and I have no idea why this hasn’t happened.
there is no “defensive” posture possible as the gulf arab states are effectively playing host to u.s bases. itd be like if i moved in to your neighbours house next door and he let me throw my fecal matter over his fence into your backyard then you started throwing stuff back into his, then your neighbour cried foul to the authorities about it saying “its not like its me throwing the shit, i didnt do anything wrong” its honestly pathetic our govt is pretending this is a legitimate position.
A significant amount of oil that goes to Singapore from the middle east become our petrol. We would be defending our national interests by defending the infrastructure that generates and the ships the oil for the first leg.
It’s irrelevant whether Trump should or should not have attacked Iran now what now matters is that we re-affirm support for our major military ally and defend our economic interests.
That’s like a common “when wrong, just double down”. Does it ever work?
What Australia needs is to find an exit path out of this self-induced crap for US, or help create one. One could argue that China is probably by far a greater ally to Aus bc it props the only 2 economic successes Aus is left with, nkt the US.
Historically the Aus forces helped US (and the Crown) meaningfully only with supply of body bags and bodies to fill them with. Korea and Vietnam should’ve teach this nation a lesson but history seems to be a hard one for Aus to learn. Dying for perceived allies seems to be easier. There’s an explanation for this but you’d not like it.
it’s irrelevant as Trump admin is out the door in 2 years and the G.O.P are headed for political wilderness for a long, long time. There is no point in needing to suck up to an administration when nearly everyone in the very country it runs have turned against it. qualitatively the democratic party is in for a significant shift as well (against AIPAC and interventionism) though this will take about 10-15 years to complete as the boomers increasingly die off: https://incendar.com/baby_boomer_deathclock.php
Even the U.S can’t re-open the strait one australian ship or whatever in the region will make FA difference and will just put australian servicemen at risk of seriously getting killed. it’s been war gamed so many times at this point and always with the same result, and that was pre-drone warfare which the iranians are masters of.
The issues around Iran are going to last longer than the current US administration at this rate.
Yup – Trump’s vanity has always been his Achilles’ heel and all it took was a little goading about him being played by the Iranians and ‘weak’ for allowing then ‘temporary’ control of the strait – article 5 was pretty definitive on the subject.
The fact that he allowed himself to be goaded back into fighting them is irrational – it was the best out he was going to get. His only option now is going to be either move up the escalatory ladder and try something even more insane and disastrous, like taking Karaga Island (I can’t be fucked looking up the spelling).
The fact that the jews in Israel as now happy to sit back and let Trump do their dirty work, saying ‘it works for us’ having successfully embroiled the US in yet another jewish lead war does nothing to dispel the stereotypes.
Whatever happened to the petrol rationing fears? It’s impossible to get any media articles on it since April, not just for Australia but also developing Asian countries.
Like I understand Australia and presumably NZ have wheeled and dealed their way out of it but who is wearing the impact?
Supply was supposed to not be able to keep up now yet oil is barely over $80
Phillipines, Thailand and various countries are wearing the impact, as we basically outbid their oil using our natural gas exports etc as a bargaining chip. There were lots of videos on TikTok and the like of people in the PH walking to work etc because petrol became too expensive there.
Various countries are emptying their strategic petroleum reserves, the BoJ has been shorting the futures market, they released a lot of oil onto the open seas (including Iranian oil) during the MoU period. It took many months in the 1970s for the Gulf Arab embargo to show up in the global marketplace, it may not have the same effect this time for various reasons but oil super bulls are unfortunately probably going to be vindicated eventually if the U.S doesn’t walk away
THe australian media has been assidously avoiding talking about the conflict as much as they possibly can since it went pear shaped and not according to plan sometime around April, you’re right it’s hard to find anything good
Someone also changed the “Government statement on Iran” page on the prime minister of australia govt website seemingly recently, it originally said something to the effect of “The Australian government supports the U.S doing [[anything]] to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon” and this was edited off the page, Albo doesn’t want to talk about it anymore as much as he doesn’t have to and they can pingpong and jawbone the futures prices
This guy from Melbourne has some excellent stuff on the dynamics of energy markets in the present context, genuinely great resource here: https://nickwade.substack.com
Try finding media articles from Asian outlets on petrol rationing it’s next to impossible
Not many cuntries publish that info, I dare say none.
Perhaps everyone hopes this will resolve sooner rather than later so try to not cause any unease, but news syndication and I’d not want to forget the duties payable to ‘allies’ in this aggression on Iran have a significant role.
Outstanding graphics Stagmal! I’d like to see them deployed in a battleships-risk type of game in a browser.
The trip via suez around the cape of good hope will mean an extra 2 weeks shipping time. On it’s own, How willl that make the oil situation very much worse than before the MOU?
Many in the Greens and Labor (secretly perhaps) will be cheering this on as it will probably increase EV adoption. High EV adoption rate meant China was barely affected, and was able to export some of its strategic reserve for a decent profit.
What will also increase is oil exploration, drilling and development elsewhere eg. South America, polar regions, UK new PM is expected to allow more North Sea drilling and exploration, etc. Maybe even Australia will pull its finger out too.
The longer the conflict continues, the less relevant the middle east will become.
There is no way anything can come online that can remotely replace the ME in any meaningful time frame (if at all) that this conflict will continue. At maximum there is only 2 years (and that will be devastating) left of this war, and that is an extreme worse case scenario
The houthis are hitting Saudi ships docked at port or stating they will do so, its not just the exit out of the red sea anymore but an attempt to totally ground the saudi maritime fleet
Stranger Things, Saudis are quiet, too quiet for what goes on. I have my theory as to the why. It seems as if they play their game well, they may have a (different but) substantial win either way the US’ assault on Iran goes just by sitting on their hands (hint: not because their hands are cold).
Report on communist subversion in the USA by US state department:
https://www.state.gov/cuba-the-capital-of-21st-century-communism/
Summary on zerohedge:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/americans-deserve-know-state-dept-report-details-cuban-espionage-subversion-and-role-rise
Chinese psyops active in Australia for decades; little attention paid, but policy effects obvious IMO. Also Europe I suspect.
great thread here, this guy is a gem of a find: https://nickwade.substack.com/p/the-cycle-cycles-again
So we are supposed to believe that a nation of under 11mil and gdp of 100bil ($9500/per head) is a major and a successful threat to a nation of 350mil, $330,000bln economy ($95,000/head) which dwarfs the rest of the world with spending on intelligence and military, eh?
If Cubans commies are so good, for slopes it would be a walk in the park to “take over” US and destroy it. They could do it within hours!
No doubt the article points to a psy-op, it is just not the one indicated.
Exactly! America wants to take Cuba just like Venezula. It’s all part of the Greater America project, which Pete Hegseth has openly spoken about. It’s not even a conspiracy anymore, they are on record talking about it.
But they have to sell it to the American (and world) public to make it more palatable.
You know wouldn’t normal rational minds look at the low fuel in reserve back in March and start to implement some rationing with an outlook to build back up to 100 days (like it’s meant to be). Instead they’ve been awfully quiet like nothing happened, letting people carry on as normal. Now they are facing a further and much more severe shock. Really makes you think it’s all by design and not incompetence…
Oh and I long ago learnt when the government is putting something in your face to get you riled up like ‘The Voice’ referendum, then they are up to some shady backdoor shit. Makes me wonder what they are doing while they’ve got everyone up in arms about giving Muslims $66 million to fight Islamophobia.
Albo is just the puppet that everyone directs their anger at. Nobody gets to where he is being that incompetent. He’s just doing what his puppet masters tell him. It’s a shame that the general public will never look further than the politicians… It’s all just theatre to keep people placated and not direct their anger to the ones in the shadows really running the show making all the money.
Oh, noes…. but the Westminster model is democracy at its best, we are often told. It woks well! (just not clear “for whom?”)
😉