The looming death of the sub $250k standalone house in Australia

As promised I have been wanting to put some thoughts to paper for some time on property.

I’ve also commented over the past 9 months that I have purchased several regional South Australian investment properties which I think represent excellent value for money and yield quite well, namely being Port Pirie, Whyalla, Port Augusta, and if you can nab cheap inventory, parts of the north east e.g Loxton or south east e.g. Naracoorte.

It is these purchases and monitoring the market that forms my thinking behind this post.

It is no secret regional property across the country went on a tear post covid (thanks to ZIRP, people leaving big cities), and markets that had been stagnant for years were suddenly receiving interest across the nation. Property investment will never be killed, and is a result of a manipulated market whereby the risk is low yet the returns are medium to high in the majority of cases.

Prices across much of the country continue to climb although have finally moderated the past 9 months in regional VIC, NSW, ACT & most of Tasmania. Which then leaves the remaining states of QLD, SA, WA and also the NT – which either already are or about to start booming.

We therefore have in my opinion only until the end of this year before it is simply not possible to purchase a standalone house almost anywhere in the country for less than $250k*

*Caveat being anywhere with more than 5k urban population and subjectively, somewhere you actually want to live with perhaps two exceptions I will detail below.

I think this (low/high pending your lens) watermark represents a profound and irreversible reduction in living standards in the country. Being that no-matter what, you are looking at a house costing upwards of 5.3x the minimum wage (which for some people living in some of these towns, is a lived reality).

New Zealand already lost out to this watermark I believe around 3-3.5 years ago with Invercargill being one of the previously cheapest places in the country. I believe the UK has nothing left, Canada has nothing left, it is just then the US that you can purchase housing under this price point.

The impact on people’s lived reality in not only the remaining locations but everything else that was $200k but is now $300k+ is going to be significant, driving reduced future home ownership, an increased and essentially forever enslaved rental class (I am noting as prices have increased so have rents to make the yield work), social pressures and stress, decreased health outcomes from having to work longer and on it goes.

Ironically due to the massive increase in building costs it is also now impossible to build the crappiest most entry level home on a 350sqm block for less than about $550k so adding supply in or close to these country towns if anything will actually pull prices up of existing (obviously much older) stock.

I am aware of the irony that by myself purchasing sub $250k dwellings myself, that I am part of the problem as much as anything. EZFKA. However at least I have paid for repairs and renovations that some of the locals could almost certainly not afford themselves on some of my dwellings to ensure they are fit for decades to come, so I am giving back something by providing better rental stock at least.

There are lastly only a two exceptions I can think of to this post I think. They are Broken Hill and Mount Isa. Both are larger towns but heavily isolated in the outback with a glut of sub $250k housing in varying states of condition that I think will stay below $250k for another few years or more. However both towns suffer from impacted economies and especially in the case of Broken Hill, heavily declining population so there are a raft of issues there explaining why they are priced as such. And again per my asterisk, I think there is a vanishingly short list of people who consider moving 300km away from just about anything as a desirable life move.

What I think this means for others is, you (as an investor or owner occupier) can either hop on board the inevitable trend, or watch it sail away forever. In summary, EZFKA will soon claim another victim.

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stagmal

fucking good article thank you

this site needs to go back to its roots

Stewie

I am aware of the irony that by myself purchasing sub $250k dwellings myself, that I am part of the problem as much as anything. EZFKA. 

Recognising the system is rigged and obstinately paupering yourself over your principals not to profit from the said rigged economy, is utter madness. Go for it!!!

Gruppenführer Mark

It is indeed a great post. Glad you got your posting rights granted!

I remember having a very similar conversation ~10? years ago around Roxby Downs. Everyone was banking on BHP getting the green light to start mining uranium, so were buying up in hopes to charge a first born for DIDO staff. Didn’t pan out, but maybe soon.

From your post below, Port Pirie does look stable. Lots of homes listed under 250K.

robert2013

That would require more thought and more work from more of us.

stagmal

why do you think prices continue to rise in BH despite population decline? is it competition for the actual livable housing stock?

stagmal

why would declining people per dwelling increase prices?

im asking this bc the fact that BH prices continue to grow doesnt bode well for the idea that its all just immigration driving real estate prices. it has to just be sydney investor cash being dumped on BH and bidding up the prices of saleable stock.

Nemesis

of course, just because people are investing in houses in BH doesn’t mean they’re smart – monkey see monkey do

stagmal

i think in the long term it impacts prices, but it depends on the market and the timeline as to when it starts to

Stewie

Great post 90KB – I’ll echo Stagmal’s sentiments “a fucking good article – thank you!“.

I have been following your property comments and interest in Whyalla and other town is search of the regional property nugget. Thanks for sharing your research and take on property. Interesting that you reckon its impossible to built a house for sub $550k in these places… does that include land too? If that’s the case it’s almost like a void has opened up above any house below $250k where there’s only a limited time before its suck up.

There has been some talk of pull backs in regional house prices following COVID – has that been any of your experience in your travels and investigations?

With you on the mining towns, like BH and Mt Isa, Whyalla, Port Pirie, etc may be just as broken but they lack the location – costal and relative proximity to services. Once the industry finally leaves BH and Mt Isa gradually return to the desert as the older populations finally die off an.

Thankyou for sharing!

stagmal

mt isa is hell on earth

robert2013

I liked it. Good vibe.

Aussie Soy Boy

All these places people keep talking about are full of aborigines, white people with drug/alcohol problems, simpletons who live to go fishing or camping, and old people. Then they go there and complain that the local IGA sells a lettuce for $12.

robert2013

Kal is not only a mining town but a mining services town at the centre of a huge region containing a lot of mines. It’s on a different level to BH and Isa.

Gruppenführer Mark

At one point of time they were allegedly considering relocating Kalgoorlie as there is gold under there that’d make it worthwhile.

Problem with Kal and additional housing estates is that there is naturally occurring asbestos in the soil, and any developer would have to clean said land up before getting any sort of permits.

Sometime ago was involved in building a new aboriginal prison there (not much to speak of, 6 bbal courts, footy field, fire pit with a yarn circle, you know, bare necessities), and sitework contractor got paid 5 times the original contract value because asbestos.

robert2013

That’s good information. Kal is probably a better bet for me than SA given I live in WA. Didn’t realise it was so cheap.

robert2013

Yeah I’ve been there. Carnavon is red dirt with an impressive irrigation scheme. Lots of banana trees. It’s hot and flat. I stopped there on the way to Coral Bay and Exmouth. Went to the supermarket. Couldn’t see much point in hanging around. Geraldton is a much more attractive place with cheap houses and nice beaches.

Gruppenführer Mark

Agree on Gero. Wider selection of jobs (not a lot of with a decent salary, though), better beaches.

I’d much rather go to Exmouth than Carnarvon, too. Same shit situation with jobs but much better lifestyle. Exmouth housing is hard to secure ugh at a decent rate.

Gruppenführer Mark

Cheapest houses in Exmouth $400k. Cheapest in Carnarvon $230k. Is it really THAT much better?

Eye of the beer holder and all that. I’d much rather be in Exmouth, personally. Ningaloo Reef, better weather all around and shortage of rentals, from what I hear. As this is a year-round destination popular with those travelling around Australia, short-term rental potential can far outstrip long-term rental. For long-term, Carnarvon could be better. I didn’t really look into the two that deep, just my 2 cents.

LSWCHP

After I got divorced back in 2014 I was convinced house prices would eventually plummet, and rented. Part of that was just not knowing what I was going to do next, but looking back I should’ve bought a flat or townhouse back then instead of pushing away tens of thousands of $$ on rent.

Of course the game is rigged because the gummint can’t afford to have house prices drop, so they don’t. Maybe at some point that will happen, but I wouldn’t be surprised if I cark it before that happens.

Anyway, we bought a nice house in 2021 for a shitload of money and paid off the mortgage in a couple of years. We’re debt free and have a roof to keep the rain off our heads.

House prices suck, but reality can’t be denied.

robert2013

It’s hard to get your head around the fact that there is no nation, no community and no plan. That most of the people who run the place are owned by foreign interests, compromised by conflicts of interest, and that they were put there and allowed to stay there by lazy fools. Going there requires despising many of the people you meet and work with. It’s hard. I live it every day.

SoylentGreen

I am of the belief in the Frankenstein theory, they created a monster with deregulation and negative gearing in the 80s and 90s that they cannot put the genie back in the bottle now.

The total value of superannuation investments in Austalia is about $4T whilst the value of residential stock is $15T. The situation is that NO ONE wants to be in government if prices fall.

At the same time, they allowed assets to inflate to create liquidity in the domestic market. Who here has a mortgage with some money lying in redraw with a rising asset value? How much of that equity fuels domestic consumption? We don’t have the S&P 500 so we perpetuate a housing bubble. Not great, but too big to derail.

robert2013

Yes of course. No one bears any responsibility. It’s all ‘the system’.

It was done without regard to the easy to predict consequences, on purpose, social fabric and social contract be damned.

robert2013

So you found another woman? On purpose?

LSWCHP

And yeah…good article, much appreciated.

Gruppenführer Mark

Anyone made money off this one? Like 3000% return in 6 months!

Fartcoin, zoom out to 1 year chart.

robert2013

Looks like it was first issued in October. This one’s likely going to zero.

Gruppenführer Mark

Yeah, but still had a better run than that Hawk Tuah coin 😀

For the record, I still cannot wrap my head around anything crypto.

Last edited 1 month ago by Gruppenführer Mark
robert2013

BTC has changed. Every time it pokes above $100k sellers step in. When will they let it go?

Nemesis

Probably after trump is inaugurated

robert2013

Thank you so much for this. I’ve driven past these towns while driving across Australia and back a few times.

Port Pirie is that extra bit closer to Adelaide and near some nice sights and hikes in the Flinders ranges, but the lead pollution there is pretty serious. Port Augusta is a regional hub but feels quite a bit more desert like than Pirie to me. Its large aboriginal population could be good economically (more gov money) but also bad (more crime). The town has higher unemployment that the rest of the state, and I suspect that’s connected to it’s high % of aboriginals. If I were buying there I’d be wary about the area I was buying and the people I rented to.

Looking on the webs, there doesn’t appear to be anything in Port Augusta for <250, and not much of above either. Slim pickings in Port Pirie <250k. Plenty in Whyalla. My guess is that without immigration or natural population growth, out of town property investors are primarily responsible for pushing up prices. Presumably, most of them are, like me, (and you?) not particularly wealthy urban dwellers looking for opportunities.

I’ve done a bit of a deep dive on Port Augusta.

http://www.yourinvestmentpropertymag.com.au/top-suburbs/sa/5700-port-augusta

shows median price from $150k before 2021 growing to $250k now(ish). Appears to be tapering. Rental yields have dropped from ~8.5% to ~7.5%.

I wouldn’t want to be there without a great rental yield. Real winners bought there in 2021. Like this guy, renting a house for $360pw that he paid $95k for – a yield of almost 20%.

https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-sa-port+augusta-404598973
https://www.propertyvalue.com.au/property/20-stirling-road-port-augusta-sa-5700/10321972

Let’s say you buy that house today for $250k and you get a 100% loan at 6%. That’s $15000 pa interest. Rent is $18720 pa. Since interest is tax deductable, you only pay tax on $3720. Assuming you earn <130k, that leaves you with $2604. Enough to cover the rates (also tax deductable). You don’t make money on this until prices and rents rise, which is fine given the 100% loan.

With flat population growth and low growth of median wages , I reckon price rises are mostly coming from investors. That’s got a ponzi-like feel to it, but since the gov has demonstrated repeatedly it’s intent to drive Australian housing, that growth can be investable. Port Augusta’s housing stock was 57.6% owner occupied in 2021 (census) and hadn’t changed much since 2011. I suspect that increased investor activity since 2021 has driven owner occupier rates down. How far can that go?

In the absence of population growth, I don’t see how rents can be pushed up faster than wage growth. New ventures could drive both population and wage growth. The building of Port Playford could be significant, but it seems to have been repeatedly delayed.

IMO Port Augusta should get some more price hikes when interest rates fall and the port opens, but you’d have to act quick. $250k is already gone, so you’ll be paying more like $275k at the bottom end. I can’t help feeling that the potential gains are not worth the work involved, but I’d need to do more quant work. I’ll revisit the situation later in the year when I drive across Australia again.

Nemesis

This looks good in Pirie https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-sa-port+pirie-146871476

and the lead has been cleaned up somewhat, lots of testing and monitoring.

North of Goode Rd (primary school) is more like the problem area from back in the day.

Last edited 1 month ago by Nemesis
Aussie Soy Boy

I think if there was a genuine shortage in these towns where replacement cost is $550k people would start building something like modular homes.

Also we’re probably at the tail end of a frenzy. Rates won’t be coming down too much otherwise the Aussie dollar will be in the 50’s stoking more inflation. This boom in real estate is 4 years now. It’s tough as it is for low skilled migrants coming here, some increase in unemployment will stop some of them coming, some of the one’s here will pack their bags and head home. Australia builds a lot of houses, so the shortages will sort itself out.

That house someone mentioned selling for $96k 4 years ago, that would have been far below replacement back then as well, and probably for decade before that. That was the time to buy these places not now.

And you can end up with total slobs as tenants who ruin everything, whole lot of hassle to deal with.

Aussie Soy Boy

Wow that is mental if it’s still hundreds of thousands to set up a modular home on land that is worth $20k. Surely there’s a better way to do this. Total failure as a society.

Gruppenführer Mark

https://homeguide.com/costs/mobile-home-cost

USD, of course, but for a double-wide at $150K USD = $240K AUD + 30% “Oz tax” puts us at $310K AUD + $20K land all set up. If lucky.

But Adelaide might be just the place to set up mobile home manufacturing. If I only had a few million…

Yep, buy existing.

LSWCHP

Thinking of Rural SA….for a while before I retired I was involved with a lot of work at Woomera. The test range underwent a huge upgrade in the 2010s, and the rocket and bomb business there is booming. As a result, accommodation is in extremely short supply for the armies of contractor engineers and techs who work on the trials.

I have the feeling there’s some profit to be there by a savvy investor who is able to pounce and snap things up.

LSWCHP

Roxby to Woomera isn’t a thing, as far as I know. Range time is expensive, so most people work 12+ hour days to get the most out of each day whilebonsite. And the roads are extremely dangerous at night due to the presence of wildlife. Roo crashes are very common.

robert2013

haroldus is still visiting!

He wrote today “Also looks like the other place is down.”

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/01/macro-afternoon-9-january-2025/

Well, in case he read this : best wishes for 2025, hope to see you here some time!

LSWCHP

Hey Harry, I hope the band is going well! 🙂

I was at the gun range a few weeks ago, and a lady who was there noticed your band sticker on my pistol case. She mentioned that she’s a fan and knows one of the members (bass player?) quite well! Canberra sure is a small place.

canuckdownunder

Another disgusting display of anti-Semitic graffiti in Sydney. Done right in front of their security cameras as well!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/australia-politics/article-14268577/Southern-Sydney-Synagogue-Allawah-vandalised-antisemtitic.html?ito=native_share_article-nativemenubutton

And why haven’t they named the Melbourne fire perpetrators yet given the level of security as well as the involvement of state and federal police? Are they all incompetent?

We want justice now!

Stewie

For those with any interest in the topic in previous discussions about inbreeding vs outbreeding, I’ve mentioned that fertility issues are highest with incest, then first cousins, but then starts to diminish before rising again.

Apparently the sweet spot is 3rd to4th cousins – basically meaning a homogenised population group. However on this occassion I’ve found a short article that compiles my assertions and backs it up with some data:

https://www.anthro1.net/p/does-fertility-start-to-decrease

robert2013

Good find. Also depressing.

bigduke6

Such a good article… I love hanging out with intelligent people.
I’ll add my experience of cousin marriages when doing a fellowship in Sheffield Uk. From the age of 10 I had figured out that Islam was completely not compatible with the west and the Uk was cooked. In the mess I sat down with a peadiatric colleague and we stuck up a conversation. “Dear boy” I said. I’m having the most awful time looking after the pregnancies of all these horde from mainly Pakistan. They’ve got diseases eradicated decades ago like rheumatic fever that destroys the heart valves… “they suck up a lot of my time where I could be helping women birth safely……Turned out he worked in the cousin marriage clinic…..a specially large one …. “ we don’t have names for the kind of insane syndromes that we see..”

Stewie

Another story in the same vein as your experience

https://x.com/DaveAtherton20/status/1878379580106432629

JimsCentralBanking

Related?

GhXN0uCXwAA_MrF
robert2013

Well that took me down a Rabbit hole. The wokerati wrote these about the author:
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Jonatan_Pallesen
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Talk:Jonatan_Pallesen

And this about racialism:
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Racialism

The writers at rationalwiki are not very rational IMO, which is not to say that Palllesen’s arguments are completely watertight. Eg:

“More recently Pallesen is using his X.com account to spread racist misinformation that all Pakistani’s are “child rapists” and that the UK Government and Guardian newspaper are involved in a “cover up”.[17]”

Following the citation you get this:

“You are on the street and because of mass immigration, the only people there are Pakistani men. You have no one else to ask for help, so you ask the first person there, in the hope that they are no *all* child rapists. But in 100% of cases here, they were.[74]

The first Pakistani you ask may possibly not be a child rapist. But if you walk around on your own, a Pakistani child rapist will quite likely descend on you, it seems.[75]

Back to the original, you see the context:
https://x.com/jonatanpallesen/status/1876285193214189761

Which in turn leads here:
https://www.theoldhamtimes.co.uk/news/20221964.horrifying-story-sophie-12-year-old-abused-girl-failed-oldham-police/

Pallesen wasn’t saying that 100% of Pakistani men are child rapists, only in that story, they were.

It’s very clear that the people writing rationalwiki.org are propagandists. The very opposite of rational, they don’t take time to consider carefully before publishing, they see what they want to see an publish it.

Moral of the story:

  1. the only person who can do a fact check is you.
  2. the world is seriously short on trustworthy sources.
  3. people who think they are rational or more rational than others are not to be trusted.
the arborist

Are you crypto bros familiar with Heather Morgan’s burgeoning rap career? She’s famous for very clumsily trying and failing to launder billions of $ worth of stolen bitcoin.

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-66390639

https://youtu.be/lRvqBI6I2z4?si=P1GcgXnTwMRTL0ox

robert2013

Good story. Read about around this. Seems like it’s pretty hard to launder money through crypto these days.

robert2013

Easy to get the wrong impression of the true state of affairs. I read a few of the articles on chainanalysis. They are not going to tell you about all the ones that get away with it. However, I came across several older cases where the perps got caught as the analytics improved. You’ve probably got to use monero or similar exclusively and be hypervigilant on and offline. No mainstream exchanges, only OTC with people you know. Difficult to get to know the right people IMO.

robert2013

https://theconversation.com/how-having-a-baby-makes-it-more-likely-australian-couples-rely-on-the-mans-income-238673

Their analysis fails to mention how many children families had. I can almost guarantee that the vast majority families where there are more than 2 children have the man as the breadwinner. That’s because it’s the only practical way to do it.

Another piece of femmo propaganda written by the types you’d expect for the reasons you’d’ expect.

How do we stop shit like this being published?

JimsCentralBanking

Excellent article.

You make great points especially with regard to the current construction costs of new stock. I remember speaking with a guy in commercial real estate and picking his brain over how they valued things like shopping centres, his first response was “We look into what it costs to build a replacement”.

The covid inflation in construction costs is probably the worst thing that’s happened to housing affordability in my life time. The baseline for house pricing is now permanently higher: even in a scenario where we were to see deflation following a bust.

We lived through the perfect storm of stupid housing policy: poorly timed government grants, materials and labour shortages, and high immigration.

I’d love to see some smart dueds have a crack at estimating how much extra the covid period will end up costing a couple buying a family home in 20 years or so.