First, a Pretentious Peachy Prologue: 2,500 years ago there was a bloke who fancied himself a bit of a philosopher and liked to rant and declaim his wisdom. The common folk of Miletus taunted him: “if you’re so bloody smart, then why are you so poor?!”.
So this bloke, Thales, used his superior understanding of the environment to forecast that there would be a bumper crop of olives next year… when everyone was expecting a poor crop. He raised the money and bought up/leased all the local olive presses, so that when the large harvest did arrive, he was able to let them out at a rate which brought him considerable profit. In this way, Thales answered those who reproached him for his poverty.
With that background, let us now quickly compare how the MB boys understanding of the environment compares to Peachy’s. Here’s what the MB fund has done lately:
MB fund performance
It peaked in early 2020, fell to March (red line above) and has done bugger all since, perhaps falling some. Flat, fizzling, falling. The boys haven’t published any updates since October, despite it being late December. Go figure.
Even looking at things since inception, the boys haven’t even managed to eke out 10%pa:
So if you put $20,000 into the fund in March this year, you’d still have $20,000 or so. (If you put it in at inception, you’d have $26,000.)
(refer update below)
Update: newer figures. Worse news.
So, since this was originally posted, some Peachy Partisans have shares more recent MB find performance figures:
It is now abundantly clear that most recent values are below March peaks. Eyeballing it, it’s gone from 131 to 128.
With that sort of pricing, someone who put in $20,000 in March would now have $19,500.
All this at a time when a blindfolded hairdresser with a dartboard would have struggled not to bank some serious profits in stonks! Yikes! To add insult to fiscal injury, this is how the losses have been narrated:
we have missed some recovery upside but caution was warranted given the unprecedented nature of the virus risk.Extract of a recent dispatch from the Deflation Imaginarium
Nobody wants to say it. So I will, as usual. DUDES! YOU HAVENT “MISSED SOME UPSIDE”. YOU HAVE LOST MONEY!
Peachy Portfolio Performance
Now, let us turn to the Peachy Portfolio. What’s the Peachy Portfolio, you ask? Well, this was announced in March 2020, which enables comparisons between the MB Fund and the Peachy Portfolio from that date:
Here are Credit Corp and Afterpay from 23 March 2020, courtesy of Investing.com:
So if you put $20,000 into the Peachy Portfolio in March this year (equally split for diversification!), you’d have $150,000!
“Laughing all the way!” as is the customary quip this season. Hahahahaha!
So, to end, an Enlightening Epilogue Echoing the Pretentious Peachy Prologue. Understanding your environment pays very handomely. Misunderstanding the environment costs a lot. A lot of time, a lot of money, a lot of frustration.
Learn and understand the workings of the #ezfka. Ignore or misunderstand it at your own risk!
PS: Subsequent update here: