Recently the blokes at Macrobusiness are beginning to see bullish signs everywhere. And, every time, they only begin to see these signs some time after the herd of bulls have stampeded over them and vanished in the distance, leaving hoof-marks to be rubbed off their bearskins.
But here at EZFKA we’re a positive bunch, so come we to praise them, not to bury them, modest as their progress has been. In the hopes that encouragement breeds improvement, a brighter tomorrow, as it were. Here is an inventory of items where the blokes are beginning to see the signs:
Iron ore… after it hit record highs: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/11/daily-iron-ore-price-update-six-year-high/
Property…. after 20 years: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/12/rampaging-mortgage-growth-bullish-for-aussie-property/
AUD… after being wrong basically always: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/12/more-australian-dollar-upside-with-volatility/
And ASX and Global shares (i.e. basically everything else in the world) https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/12/global-boom-imminent/ :
And let’s not forget other awesome examples of being profoundly wrong, such as BTC and the COVID vaccine that would never happen (and now it seems we have about a dozen), car sales, HomeBuilder, gosh, this practically writes itself! (In the real world, hardly anyone is surprised by what twelvety gazillion Dollars -printed under the flimsy cover of a pandemic- have done, of course.)
How can you be wrong, so consistently, for so wrong? Without noticing. Is it some sort of record? Or a case of a broken record? Or is it broken clock. It’s hard to find answers, especially if you’ve locked yourself in an echo chamber of your own construction, superbly insulated from reality.
All that said, perhaps this bullish turn of Macrobusiness could be a sign. Blokes Beware!
It’s disturbing that their fund missed out on the biggest bull run in history and only just started buying equities again. Long the USD so took a double whammy. That’s surely some kind of professional negligence. I don’t understand why they wouldn’t have started dipping their toes in the water in March. They were already 30% ahead of other funds no matter what happened. That’s disturbing.
Even more disturbing is that people have their retirement savings tied up with these guys.
These mugs pray for a strong US dollar because it’s the only way they can make money.
Their about face into bulls might be a last ditch effort to save the fund and the site.
There are multiple lessons from history that they refuse to learn, such as (in no particular order):
– you are probably not smarter than everyone else
– don’t fight the Fed
– powerful interests don’t give up their power or position easily
– the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent
– history repeats
This is why they never believe in V-shaped recoveries and assume that any small hiccup will be enough to topple colossal structures (wealth & power structures)… while those at the top of the structures look the other way while it all falls down around their ears (…and presumably into MB‘s lap).
Every time, some combination of the historical lessons have combined to make MB wrong. Eventually the one about market being irrational longer than you can remain solvent knocked off many of their members and threatened to knock off their Fund, but for their recent pivot into bulls.
Timing matters – being “right” on the macro/fundamentals is of no use, if you get the timing wrong. Which they have consistently done.
I’d be too embarrassed to publish my thoughts if I were the Macro mugs.
They’re just digging a deeper hole for themselves. No credibility left after doing a complete 180, their whole philosophy as been thrown out of the window. Is it an overvalued bubble or not?
The S&P is up about 65% since its March low. What is it be fearful when others are greedy? There are individual stocks and sectors with room to grow but I wouldn’t have any faith in the Macro mugs getting it right.
They did get interest rates heading down right when the everywhere was still talking about the possibility of them rising. And economics aside, they’ve been right on the CCP.
Man imagine being this cut from being booted from a niche economics blog, that you go and set up a protest/whinge blog.
Guess it shouldn’t be surprising though that “Peachy” can dedicate the same level of energy to this as keeping up the charade of posing as a woman online for years.