The dream is over – Macrobusiness to close in 23 days. If they’re honest.

Yesterday Macrobusiness put up a post about the iron ore price, subtitled ‘the dream is over’:

…’cause they’re closing!

…or so I figured…. Surprisingly, it was just another tepid iron ore price post, and not an announcement about Davo’s imminent retirement, which I had been expecting.

Recall that 342 days ago (or is it 343? bloody leap years…), Davo committed to hang up the shingle if iron ore was over $80 on 11 December 2020:


So here we are, just 23 days from the due date, and even with the tailwind of a global disease calamity much bigger than Macrobusiness could have imagined, it looks like the $80 iron ore prediction is set to join a veritable echelon of other rubbish predictions.

This, of course, includes the famous “$20 iron ore” prediction, which goes back at least 5 years, like here in 2015:

and has been repeated recently…like here a few months ago:

This has $20 iron ore written all over it.

Inquiring minds are probably wondering exactly how the $80 prediction had played out over the last 12 months. Well, this is how:

…Couldn’t have done any worse. $80 is precisely the level that the iron ore price could not get below. How funny is that?!

Of course, there is a litany of other funnily woeful Macrobusiness predictions, recently documented at the EZFKA:

Looks like it will take some sort of Christmas miracle to save Davo! Retirement beckons….

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Mr macrotard

“David is a macroeconomic analyst and former trader.”

I like to think of myself as a macroeconomic analyst and former trader too – I love listening to the opinions of taxi drivers and I used to trade basketball cards with me mates when I was a kid

Chinese Astroturfer

That’s one thing. He can blow up his own account all he likes.

But he’s “Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super”.

He’s become increasingly erratic in his views I think lockdown has affected him.

All those guys that write their tabloid articles spend way too much time behind the screen looking at numbers and putting graphs together they really need insiders on the ground giving them a true picture of what’s going on out their in the economy. They missed the retail boom, car sales boom, housing boom.

Chinese Astroturfer

In fairness to it would have been excruciating to watch everything fall apart from March onwards. Late March the Aussie dollar is 56 cents with MB predicting it to hit 40 cents lol! ASX at 4500 with predictions of a 3 handle, S&P at 2200.

Aussie dollar now 75 cents with no end to its rise in sight, ASX at 6600, S&P at 3600.

They went from the highest of highs to the lowest of lows. Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

It would be distressing to wake up every morning for months on end and see all those gains progressively eroded to the point come December you’re miles behind the other funds having missed out on the biggest bull run in history. It’s enough to break even the strongest of men.

I’d call it a day if that was me. Just admit I’m not cut out to trade. You could have picked a stock out of a hat and made a bundle since late March. Dave didn’t make a cracker. Probably lost money in Aussie dollar terms.

Chinese Astroturfer

He should get his real estate licence. Probably a good time to get in the game.