So we are 100 days into the Special Military Operation (SMO) by the forces of evil trying to take away the freedoms of an independent Ukraine. I thought it was a good time to take a look back and see what was and what may come.
First, a bit of history. I do not pretend to know all of the nuances that happened in the Imperial Russia / USSR times, although if necessary, I can certainly put up a post on that. Nor will I delve into NATO promises to Gorbachev in late 80’s to not extend NATO’s reach eastwards – many have covered that. This post will also not deal with Crimea – history there is long and complicated, but I can put up a post on that, but it will take tome. After all (disclosure: vested interests) I have family in Russia and in Ukraine, as well as Europe, USA, and, of course, here in the lucky country. So I will limit this post to what I believe (disclosure: personal opinion) caused where the world is today.
We start in 2014. I will do my best to take y’all (Peachy’s thAng) down the wormhole that is the current SMO, so as you emerge, you may be more edumacated when the ABC or other MSM outlets run a hatchet story on a leader of a nuclear-capable country. Yesterday I tuned in to the special Foreign Correspondent report on ABC and almost broke the TV
Opinions an innuendo presented as facts, a comical program presented as a mass opinion. Proof was lacking severely, although graphics were pretty allright. It made me want to be poisoned with Novichok if I ever went astray, since nobody has ever died from the most deadly agent.
What follows is the best selection of the “fake news” propaganda from fringe sites.
So where do we begin? I think late 2013 is a good start. The then democratically elected President Yanukovich was at a crossroads. He had a trade deal with the EU on the table, and Russia presented him with a sweeter option (sweeter for people or for him, the tea leaves are silent on this)
As a result, the “friends of Ukraine” mobilised their tried and true tactic – a Maidan! An uprising of ordinary citizens on the independent country, that has worked well to install the then President Yuschenko back in 2004 (never met the man, but met one of his daughters, but that’s another story). So, people were mobilised to go camping in a central square in the capital, Kiev, to make sure their will was heard. Victoria Nuland was there, passing out biccies, and strategizing as to whom would be the next big man.
Shortly after there was a shootout in the square, where ~100 people died, mostly cops (responsibility is still under suspicion), Yanukovich fled to Russia, and democracy prevailed. People took to the power and took their fate into their hands, and all was sweet. Except for a few minor hiccups, as, for example, people of Odessa, a city founded by Catherine the Great (Russian Empress, but she was doing horses, so who cares!), protesting and getting burned alive (at least 42 victims), but that is the price of freedom! The pushback spread throughout the eastern and southern part of the country.
So in April 2014, in response to wider protests, the Ukrainian army launched an offensive towards Donbass and Luhansk regions, heavily Russian-speaking (note: Ukraine launched an offensive). All-in-all, ~40% of the country identify as Russian, speak the language, and have close-knit ties to their largest neighbour. Don’t even get me started on a cultural differences in making borscht! Many of bottles of vodka lost their will to live in those circumstances.
Donbass and Luhansk people’s army put up one hell of a fight defending what they thought of their Motherland. By September 2014, Ukraine was forced to come to an agreement (not without aid of France, Germany, etcetera, etcetera) to make peace in a form of Minsk I. There are views that Russia conducted a direct invasion of Ukraine, but to me the jury is still out on this. Minsk I did not hold.
In late 2014, Minsk I fell apart, due to both sides violating it, so here came Minsk II.
Suffice it to say, this agreement was also not adhered to, or enforced. Here is the important bit
Fast forward to 2022. On 18 February, Ukrainian President Zelensky made a statement in Munich that Ukraine “may reconsider it’s nuclear status”.
On the same day, 18 February 2022, Ukrainian forces started heavy shelling of the “separatist” republics.
On 21 February, the separatists asked for assistance from Russia in light of the shelling
On the same day, Russia had recognised independence of the separatist republics
On 24 February Russia entered the fray to protect its subjects. Right, wrong, or indifferent. Russia thought it was the right thing to do.
And this is where we are. And where to from here? 100 days is a short time, I doubt all of us can get to some sort of meaningful goals in that time span, let alone conquer a country. So far, the eastern part of Ukraine is pretty much conquered, southern seaboard is ~100km away from linking in with Transinistria (remember Odessa), north is left wanting (Kharkiv, Kiev).
Your thoughts, comrades!