Lots of media chatter about house prices falls becoming entrenched last 2 weeks. They were precipitated by Labor’s budget. MB and many of us have been arguing for these things for years:
- ending negative gearing
- bringing real estate into anti money laundering regime
- ending SMSF residential property lending
I think they acted for ideological reasons, to bring down house prices while keeping up migration levels.
Doing this a few years ago when we all wanted it eg during COVID would have been fine, but their timing now is bad.
Socialist policies across the west have led to great inflation and debt essentially to fund lifestyles and ideology and not to build productive capacity. That is almost a textbook definition of what being anti-capitalist means. Capitalism is investing profits to improve production. If you’re not improving production you’re going to destroy it in a free market because competitors will do what you don’t.
Australian food production is in decline and has been for a while:
- The Netherlands earns more from agricultural exports than Australia
- Commentary on Matt Canavan’s recent comments on agricultural productivity noted:
- “The Australian reported that the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences have projected shortfalls in production of basic Australian foodstuffs”
- It’s been several years since SPC Ardmona was complaining that it was having a hard time, not sure if they still are. Maybe they got a gov subsidy. Heinz moved its food processing to NZ some years ago.
This is partly a result of the special agricultural worker visas which have disincentivised farmers from becoming more productive. When they can’t get the workers they do things like spend $20m on robots: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-23/avocado-packing-shed-manjimup-robotic-upgrade/107059672
As global bond yields keep rising, governments in debt will have to make hard choices. Bank interest rates will follow bond rates. More of the budget is going to be taken up with interest payments. Govs can either print money or cut spending. Australia is not ready to become a latin american delinquent so spending is going to be cut. That will at least keep a lid on demand pressure, but given so much of recent employment growth has been in gov jobs, that will mean more unemployment.
Ongoing high oil prices are going to feed inflation and thence interest rates too…but this is about more than just expensive fuel. Snowy Hydro, Melbourne infrastructure (SRL) and more are money pits and inflation contributors.
Australia’s productivity growth has been falling for years and may even be negative now. That’s going to matter now that the cracks can’t be papered over by growing debt. It’s the inevitable consequence of not investing in improving your production processes. Dumber people in larger numbers are a part of that. Immigration will have to be cut.
Labor’s changes plus rising rates mean property is falling, and the falls are gathering pace. We haven’t even seen unemployment rise yet.
The trouble is that so much of the economy revolves around real estate. People have been putting their money into real estate rather than starting or growing businesses: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/wealth-exodus-australians-flock-property-investment-over-business . It was mad not to. But those days are over and now the skills required to start and run profitable enterprises simply aren’t there in high enough numbers many parts of the country. Work quality is suffering. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-18/sydney-airport-collision-chances-safety-issues/107035398….think of DLS’s experience with VIC mental health system…or this: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-27/perth-mother-blames-systemic-failures-for-her-daughter-death/106396758
Lots of people are renting https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-08-27/more-children-are-growing-up-in-rental-housing/107082682….and therefore insecurely housed. Australia is now a pretty unhappy place https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-income-needed-to-be-happy-by-country/ because it costs so much for basic needs. Unhappy people vote against the status quo.
The role of AI in all this is important. Firstly, the AI build out is hugely expensive and may continue to be so as the software-hardware development loop cycles. Tech corps (so I’ve read) are funding through debt and not free cashflow and equity floats. The numbers are too big. This debt is competing with gov bonds and contributing to rising gov bond yields. Second, harnessing LLMs and other AIs is the obvious route to the next productivity boom.
The ending of Australia’s long running real estate boom is going to be bumpy, but we are a desirable place to build data centres because of space and distance…redundancy matters. There are lots of issues with data centres, but at least their construction and maintenance is generating some local upskilling and ongoing revenue. That skill base is something that can be built on, perhaps dramatically so if investing in productive capacity is more profitable than betting on government backing of the housing market. It will be tough for many as the economy is weaned off real estate debt, but it can come out swinging.
- My 1-2 year long positioning is energy, gold, BTC, industrial metals, agriculture, tech.
- Shorting local banks might work too. I note CBA , WBC and NAB are red on tradingview all the way out to the 1 year mark. ANZ to 6 month.
Volatility is mad so either strap in or swing trade.
Nice thinking Robert.
I can only add that importing millions of 80 IQ retarded Indians under the guise of “skilled workers” hasn’t helped one single aspect of the Australian economy or society.
I was taking a break in Oberon west of Sydney on my way to some bushwalking the other day, and a couple of Indian women with kids sat down next to me in the cafe and jabbered away in Hindi or whatever their ugly and stupid language was. All I could think was “WTF are these vermin doing here, and what are the contributing?”
Short answer? Sucking up resources while contributing nothing.
I drove down from Sydney to Canberra this arvo, and the amount of utterly incompetent and dangerous driving on display by blokes wearing Turbans in big trucks was mind boggling. I don’t understand why there aren’t major semi trailer pileups on that road every day.
My missus said she was turning into me, because every time we overtook a semi that had done something stupid she observed, yes, Indian driver.
Competency based continuous assessment by instructors made driving tests optional a while ago, I think they brought tests back in, but not sure. Some of those guys might have been waved through by their mates.
I worked as a paramedic along the Hume mate, believe me there is plenty of semi accidents along there. I’d say one a month and it’s always raj behind the wheel. Pre Covid there was definitely less.
ending neg gearing has created rental price surge. landlords have stuck up rents to cover their investments that are no longer being compensated through negative gearing. i think it has happened to my property and many others in the area.
pop growth is source of productivity stagnation, we are expanding the number of labor hours but not at a rate that capital investment can keep up, as well reducing incentive to capital deepen like you noted.
final point we haven’t noted recently is PHON has recently backflipped hard on immigration and now more or less has the same immigration policy as the other two parties (at least in terms of numbers). from what i have seen so far there has been no polling backlash to this move, with PHON maintaining the same ~25%-30% holding pattern of the vote in polls they have maintained for the last few months. there is therefore little electoral incentive for PHON to return to its prior net negative NOM policy unless this changes.
global bond market is super spooky right now. commodities seems to be the play for the indeterminate future; i’m looking to liquidate a lot of my positions otherwise but timing seems crucial.
PHON’s policy is in question, but I don’t think David Fairley’s comments should be seen as policy. The closer they are to power the more mainstream grifters like him will infiltrate. But I don’t think it matters all that much. Immigration demand juicing is done. The debt required to make it work is now unaffordable and getting more expensive. The only way out of the coming collapse is productivity gains which means doing more with less labor. Importing low skill Nepalis, Phillipinos and other 3rd world flesh will only make things worse and no government can afford to do that. A PHON victory will put some high conviction people in parliament who will be use their platform to break away as form a party further to the right.
I don’t think you’re right about negative gearing driving up rents. That cannot have happened yet due to the grandfathering of existing properties afaik. That’s still being driven by high immigration and reduced construction.
It’s not just Farley, PH more or less confirmed the Net Migration bait n switch at the bush summit in Dubbo a few weeks ago
I don’t think they have an immigration policy at all but what you’re getting is a 130k floor, plus lots of temps through various other visa schemes
Something suss really happened bc they basically flipped all the rentals around including mine right after the changes by like 100-150, mine went up a straight $200 in one rental increase which I have never seen before practically a few weeks after but it’s probably coincidental
Maybe investors are anticipating less capital gain and want to squeeze more money from their tenants going forward to make up for it ??
I don’t think immigration can push up prices much anymore either there are obvious limits to that
High skilled labor is only useful insofar as it can be utilised but a lot of labor aus is importing regardless of human capital level is going to end up (if it remains in the country) in uber eats and trolley pushing regardless bc there’s no outlet for skills, mining sector is so hyperproductive it puts upward pressure on labor costs economy wide which makes australia uncompetitive with much of the world too. truth is australia needs less people period as its economy seems to produce more output per cpaita better with less rather than more population
Sounds like PHON is getting suckered by farmers used to cheap labour. Hope not.
I thought it was about appeasing regional electorates which is their core constituency too
Why are investors in Australia raising rent? I thought the negative gearing changes were grandfathered?
Nevermind just saw Robert’s comments and your reply.
yes any excuse to raise rent and be greedy
Anyone else following this Lindsay Clancy shit lol
This is the OJ Simpson trial for white women
Yeah. The husband clearly killed the kids because he’s a Gemini.
American women appear to be completely insane. My first wife was American, and she’s the craziest person I’ve ever known.
It’s entirely women on TikTok. I can’t believe western countries are allowing this app that’s clearly being used to psychologically manipulate people. China doesn’t even have to go to war, can just convince white mums to kill their own kids.
Tik Tok in the USA is now owned by a chew.
Therefore lots of crazy women screaming and no one at all Qing the holohoax.
Good post. Good to see some commentary like the old ezfka days. Seems to be a distinct change since the guy who likes to watch his wife get fucked has been awol.
its fascinating to watch after 15 years when I first stumbled on MB is people like LVO, Steven keen and Martin north, suddenly getting their time in the sun. i guess the users that used to say a broken clock is right twice a day were spot on.
If you bought a house in 2010 when Steve keen was preaching “Don’t buy now” you’d be doing be doing alright lol
Few grasped the obvious: we were being swamped and it wasn’t going to stop. Australian immigration rates and policy were and are unprecedented in all of the history of borders and nations, and even tribes.
We have no national cultural references any more. We don’t watch the same TV, listen to the same radio, read the same books, watch the same news, and more and more haven’t grown up with any of those things either. The classics of English literature are neglected, the history of our non nation is cursorily denigrated with no effort at real understanding, every bit as bad as when people avoided talking about the impact of colonisation on native hunter gatherer tribes in polite company (and they still do that). Public discourse is boring. There are no public intellectuals any more. The best I can come up with from the recent past was Andrew Denton, and no one replaced him.
The daily word salad from politicians and business “leaders” is uninspired dross. They say things they think they have to say in order not to be bothered by anyone while they loot the place with great refinement and subtlety. “larrikin”, “mateship”, even “bogan”…all those tired cliches wrought by data poor observers decades ago, recycled ad nauseam by those who have nothing else to say and cannot publicly admit that we are not a nation just a bunch of randoms living in close proximity to one other but kept apart by expensive property, tyrannical laws governing public places, and mutual disregard.
Where the immigration was moderate, eg Perth, MB was spot on. I didn’t buy and I kept not buying until the start of 2021 and got the turning point spot on.
stuff flips fast. PHON has now proposed a new immigration plan that’s more similar to their pre-modified one from before, and it could be in anticipation of labor announcing immigration cuts soon themselves. immigration is getting cut in aus regardless of whose in power (probably) but whose in power will seem to modify by how much.
Looks like pretty good news: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-14/joyce-net-migration-tanked-economy-will-voters/107152378
Like I’ve been saying…one way or another.
They’re broadcasting the warning for those with the means and know-how to prepare. There’s still time to act. I’m seriously thinking of selling my house and moving to somewhere super cheap in the bush to wait it out. When unemployment rises so will crime.
For city folk this is the top I think but regional top coming too eventually
Whyalla is cheap as chips as has been recommended here a bunch of times, i’m seeing a lot of places renting for $200 p/w
Steel plant closing. The town has much reduced economic basis.
Incorrect. The current blast furnace is stuffed and closing. To be replaced with a new one by whichever owner takes it over, although it will take a good 3-4 years to build one would imagine.
thanks for that – good to be clear
Whyalla rents are about to nosedive 15-20% best place in the country to rent
You absolutely should move there
I am probably due for a follow up to my death of the sub $250k house post I made 18 months ago or so.
But many many regional areas are booming the past 6 months even post the budget changes. Every single regional property I have bought has made 15-20% capital growth the last 12 months alone.
The major capital cities are looking fatigued however, Sydney, Canberra and Adelaide in particular. A 10-15% peak to trough correction is the likely outcome followed by a stagnation period. Indeed we are already down 5-7%+ it is in Sydney.
Blame Albo and his budget which has thrown a hand grenade into the housing market and therefore the economy.
Dubbo market is seriously red hot
They are putting in a new Aldi at the mall and just completed a new shopping centre with a Coles, a 4th McDonalds is being built near the hospital and a new residential high rise is nearly complete in the cbd (the crane that was building it fell on it earlier this year which delayed its completion)
all of the area in the red will be developed in a few years
Dubbo is an interesting market and is getting very expensive for what it is IMO. I see it as being very similar to Mildura as a town economically yet Mildura is 25-30% cheaper to buy for like for like housing.
Arguably the same comparison could be made for much of NSW versus Vic.
It’s overvalued, it’s way too far from anything to warrant premium prices, if you live here dubbo is really all you can viably “do” and see and you end up never leaving town
Summers are unlivable
Why on earth did they build a 17 storey apartment tower there also what is up with that
Surely you can go out somewhere and shoot pigs?
Cranes falling over on construction sites is a very Indian thing. I wonder what the ethnic make-up of the crane crew was.
Modis main cheap export. Who TF wants them? Why are Aus and NZ so dumb.
At least most folks i talk to are happy to admit its PHON or bust.
What the fuck is going on?
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1FG11cYmEe/
100 acres in Shepparton. Selling in Hindi and all the comments are Indians wanting to buy? This isn’t a fucking 350sqm block in Tarneit. Why are these cunts so keen to own 100 acres in Shep?
What’s the bet they will be turning them into slums?
They do this everywhere – they are a clan people. They come in, buy a farm work on it collectively, then buy another and another. There are lots of regional towns where this is happening, many in the MIA – Shepparton is another intensive agricultural area where they can maximise profit by using clan workers for harvest.
The country is honestly fucked imo. They are quietly taking over everything and by the time people wake up to it, it will be to late.
Another thing I think people are not realising is that with house prices going down and a credit freeze on FHB. I think Indians are going to be the ones buying up property.
Yup – there is only one political party offering to deal with these issues, but the mainstream parties and jews have banned it… most people whinge and say something should be done, but then are so brainwashed they reflexively recoil from the one party offering a solution because “You bro – they’re racists”.
You’ll have to spell it out for me because the only two possible parties that come to mind are one nation or Thomas sewells party?
Oh it is absolutely Thomas Sewell’s party – they are the only political organisation in Australia that is prepared to address these issues.
As I have often said, you lead from the edges and govern from the center – if you listen to Sewell or other senior members of the WAP talk this is 100% where they are coming from. Their goal is to widen the Overton window and PULL the center towards themselves.
They know they aren’t going to be elected (at least straight away) and even if they were they’re not going to go rounding up people door to door, that just won’t work.
Their talk of the “white race” is a direct counter to the predominently jew and associated leftist propaganda that “white people & culture doesn’t exist”. It is crucial that these ideas and identities are discussed and popularised, if only to act as a counter to the msm narrative.
Unlike the mainstream parties, including Hanson’s, WAP have a goal of repatriation and they are prepared to implement policies to achieve this; pay migrants to leave and never come back, cut off welfare and generally make Australia inhospitable to migrants who depend on our welfare in order to exist in our society (mainly Africans, Arabs and Indians), while implementing policies to encourage integration and assimilation of the remainder into ‘white Australia’.
These are viable solutions to our “intractable” problems, but they will never be discussed by any of the major parties because “racism” which mainly stems from jews intense ethnocentrisim and their own view that assimilation and integration of jewish people into any society is genocide.
The same thing in European countries they are just ahead of Australia.
It’s interesting what EZFKA started as and here you are talking about Thomas Sewell’s political party lol.
Interestingly there is a similar conversation going on on a aussie body building forum I’m on. About Indians and mass immigration so it seems it’s becoming more mainstream for the average unit to be waking up and talking about it which can only be a good thing to ending the madness,
Paging Stewie: https://youtu.be/EcyytLshj_I?si=LEfRdEAEmNMKjCJo
If you are not aware of Will Sexton, check him out. From a sociological perspective I find it fascinating a rich kid from upstate New York is putting out pretty polished cultural critiques.
Good video. I’ve already said it here before they are the new colonizers and nothing is being done to stop it.
delete
Yup a good video on bringing people up to speed on India and the cultural values that make them useful as weapons of the Globalists. A disgusting people, as he says.
That is one of the reasons why I stopped caring so much about MacroBusiness an why I was trying to popularise and use the phrase “Culture Matters” so much.
My own opinion that eventually formed through the failure to address such obvious solutions to our intractable problems, was that everything – Politics, Economics, Social behaviour was all downstream of Culture, while culture itself was a function of i) genes and ii) religion… I’d say in the ratio of about 70:30… definitely more than 50:50.
I couldn’t understand why obvious solutions to common problems, eg housing affordability weren’t being pursued – eventually I realised that it wasn’t in the interests of those who ran Australia, and those that ran Australia from behind the curtain, weren’t really Australian.
With regard to MB it simply became repeditive reading the site – it was like a Doctor who repeatedly described the symptoms, but could never articulate the disease.
MultiCult and immigration are simply weapons against a united minority… coincidently, as between the time I started typing out this reply and hitting send I was interupted, and in the interval happened to see this recent ZH article:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/founding-fathers-never-would-have-tolerated-multiculturalism
I don’t think I could have said it better myself, and so rather than continue rambling will urge you to read the ZH, but as is want to my fashion, replace elites, with Zionists or jews as you read it with your internal voice.
I’ve started trolling that celebrity REA Tom Panos on his youtube comments. He’s been posting a lot about “won’t somebody think of the poor real estate agents or brokers” type of posts lately 😂
He was on Mark Bouris podcast saying how he’s worried for renters blah blah. But every now and then he lets the mask slip and he slides back to his greedy real estate speak. Making out he’s all altruistic now he’s not getting any auctions.
Oh and talking about how vendors need to lower their expectations! What a time to be alive hahaha
If there was one thing that I’ve been dying to see since my days on MB it’s to see real estate agents out of a job and in the centrelink line wearing their tarocash suits. Fucking year 10 drop outs who think they are better than everyone else in a once in a lifetime booming market. Bring it on I say.
LOL – did a quick scan but couldn’t discern an obvious DD…. anyone trolling the RE Industry is doing God’s work.