I am becoming increasingly concerned about the disparate response/condition of the australian states with regards to Covid.
If Victoria is successful in eliminating covid again (and they are getting cases down at the moment), then it will be endemic in NSW and completely eliminated elsewhere.
Just today, Palletchook has completely closed the borders, shutting hotel quarantine for interstate refugees.
Let’s say that NSW gets 80% of its residents vaccinated, and the death rate carries on like it has in the UK or israel. We will still be seeing at least a dozen deaths per day, and plenty of hospital cases particularly in the winter months
Although as rational people we special few understand that really isn’t a huge deal, you can imagine that for the boomers and the doomers this will be completely unacceptable.
It is feasible that they continue to have their borders closed to NSW indefinitely
Now, in that situation which part of Australia would I rather live in?
-can travel overseas
-can receive tourists (though I doubt many would come just to see one state – its a very long way to go)
-lockdowns may be infrequent
-cant go anywhere else in australia
-mask mandates are likely to stay forever according to imbecilic Dr Chant
Rest of oz pros:
-don’t have to wear fucking masks
-can travel to all other states
Rest of oz cons:
-possible intermittent lockdowns
-can’t travel overseas
-economy likely to be absolute fucking disaster except for WA, given that no tourists can come
Now, with regards to economic factors.
WA doesnt really have to give a fuck at least for the moment, so we can forget about them
ALP governments in Victoria , SA and Qld have ALP governments, they may very well shut the door on migrants and “students” altogether. This would make those states great for young people as wage pressures would go up.
However one would have to imagine that it would be a very staglationary environment, as GDP will collapse without “students”, construction, tourism, rising real estate prices etc
The EZFKNSW will most definitely be hoovering in these same coolies and suppressing wages while building, building, building
We would then have a two speed economy – low (wage) inflation moderate “growth” in NSW, and high (wage) inflation deflation in the rest of the country ex-WA.
Probably with a lower AUD given the absolute chaos and division
Exactly how would the RBA and federal government handle this?
Certainly, the RBA wont be raising rates – that’s a given
The government redistributes more GST share to qld/vic/sa and supports them through lockdowns and decreased economic turnover?
Very unlikely while scomo is in power
Even federal labor probably has enough pressure from corporate donors to not want to reward the other states for continuing on the hermit path. However, imagine a scenario where the LNP is essentially only retaining support from NSW, while federal election voters in all other states punish them for trying to force the covid on them
This could get very fucking murky
Superimposed on this you may have changes in interstate migration – one can imagine that older boomers certainly wont want to stay in NSW where they risk dying (low risk but perceived as huge risk in their minds) and they will all flee interstate especially to QLD. Selling their huge real estate wealth in one place, and buying in another
All in all, this is an absolute shit show.
If victoria does lose control of the pandemic, its a slightly different story as NSW and VIC combined are more than half of the national population. But even then QLD and WA have the mineral wealth, and will probably attract all the boomers with their wealth.