Binance Thread – just this

https://mobile.twitter.com/ThomasDavies33/status/1400394138605047812

Anecdotally, there are increasing signs that the liquidity issues I’ve been harping on about are becoming a more recognised problem:

My own recent experience is starting to make me a little nervous as well. Last time I linked a bank account to withdrawal to, it was assigned to my account within 3 days. I’m now sitting at 3 weeks for a new bank account I wanted to add and still no response, despite two follow ups… and I haven’t even got to the withdrawing part yet.

It could be because they are completely snowed under, certainly very possible, or it could be because they are carefully guarding their own liquidity and fiat funds. The problem with such an un-regulated sector is that you just have no idea – nor do you have any regulator to which you can complain in order to have it escalated.

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Peachy

I’m now sitting at 3 weeks for a new bank account I wanted to add and still no response, despite two follow ups… and I haven’t even got to the withdrawing part yet. 

It could be because they are completely snowed under, certainly very possible, or it could be because they are carefully guarding their own liquidity and fiat funds. The problem with such an un-regulated sector is that you just have no idea – nor do you have any regulator to which you can complain in order to have it escalated.

but you can just vote with your feet – transfer your crypto to a platform that has the liquidity and cash out/withdraw from there.

Like…. competition!

while there is competition, we don’t need no regulation!

Last edited 1 month ago by Peachy
bjw678

I’d be starting that process at a few different exchanges that are trustworthy right now if I really believed I’d be losing the money.

Trustworthyness can be determined by both where they are located, and their business practices. ie, do they use tether, do they offer margin loans, what crypto do they actually sell, and what don’t they.

https://www.btcmarkets.net/ has been legit, no idea on current delay but not much when I set it up quite a while ago. Based in Australia, so you can take them to australian courts if it goes pear shaped. Limited to AUD though.

Last edited 1 month ago by bjw678
bjw678

It also indicates the attitude of the operators. If you are leaning towards scamming then you aren’t setting up in a place with strong law and order and making yourself easy to track through interactions with the financial system.
They seem quite happy taking their small cut off the top for virtually no risk on other peoples transactions.

bjw678

 however as they do carry USDT it is quite possible that they may end up being caught up in the same liquidity squeeze that imho is shortly going to shake the entire crypto space.

No exchange acting purely as an exchange can get “caught up” in anything, all transactions are between third parties and they just take a cut off the top.
All items being traded are also owned by third parties and not the exchange. The owners of the usdt could get caught up but the exchange should not care less.
A lot of “exchanges” in the crypto space are doing far more than acting as exchanges.

Coming

This is the only way a Ponzi/pyramid can finish

the only question is how long it takes

T

Hey mate can you do something on the more interesting tech type coins. So thinking Cardano vs ETH, or Helium, or Theta coin etc.

The ones where there is purpotedly some specific application. My understanding is these are closer to NFT’s.

I’d be super keen to learn more about these coins from your pov – muchos gracias if possible. no rush or anything.

Sacha

Michael Saylor and Max Keiser are sounding a bit unhinged.

The Saylor clip is an instant classic me thinks where he lays out some prudent advice for serious investors:
https://twitter.com/CryptoWhale/status/1398769233086009346

Keiser:
https://twitter.com/titodurriz/status/1400997001861296129

I was also thinking about how the crypto people were cheering on the Bitcoin investments of hedge funds and guys like Paul Tudor Jones and Druckenmiller. But I’m pretty sure these people are not hodlers. They will set a stop loss. I remember PTJ once mentioning years ago that his stop loss is when price goes below the 200 daily MA (Bitcoin is there now).

Will be interesting to see if they did sell and how they went with getting their money out. And if this was indeed problematic we probably won’t hear about it for a while because they are smart enough not to advertise issues like that as that would exacerbate the problem.

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bjw678

Will be interesting to see if they did sell and how they went with getting their money out.

Presumably these people are smart enough to work out what is a legitimate exchange that is acting purely as an intermediary taking a small % as a fee and what are the more questionable ones providing margin loan services, lack access to legitimate bank accounts and are not legal entities in a first world country.
The red flags aren’t that hard to work out. I really don’t think you get that level of wealth without being able to spot them and make reasonable decisions about the counter parties you are using to invest.

Sacha

Yes, you are right.
They knew exactly what they were doing.

These smart people did their due diligence and saw a prudent investment opportunity to screw over some muppets.

That’s how they got that level of wealth.

Sacha

Let’s presume Bitcoin follows more or less the same pattern as in 2013-2014 and 2017-2018.

If I then look at it with my own muppet TA eyes, a retracement to the 200 weekly MA at ~14k is a possibility; after the 2013 and 2017 top it took about one year to reach that point. But it could go back up to ~47.5k (+/-5k) first before starting a similarly long drawn out bear market.

Although in 2017 the top was 1500% above the 200 weekly MA, which is completely insane, the latest top is ‘only’ 500% above it, which is a little less insane and about the same as the 2013 top, so there is also the possibility that we could still go much higher first.

I think the probability is greater that we are in a long term bear market.
After that, who knows?
Thoughts?

Last edited 1 month ago by Sacha
Sacha

Would you be willing to buy back in if it gets that low?

Or does that depend on what the crypto climate is like then, also taking into considering where we are at that time with regulation etc.

A lot can happen in a year, so hard to say I guess.

Last edited 1 month ago by Sacha
bjw678

I’ll be buying back at that low, probably some before it gets that low.
Sit around for a while, and take mega profits again next bubble.

bjw678

A roll out of regulation will drive enterprise adoption. The fact it’s the wild west at the moment will be holding enterprise away.

If btc sees enterprise adoption the price will skyrocket as demand increases massively for the fixed supply.

bjw678

I guess it depends on what you think the use is.
Personally I think the digital contracts stuff is mostly useless in the corporate world since ultimately they will still need legal enforcement or be limited purely to things on the blockchain.
A digital contract can’t enforce delivery of goods or services.

Sacha

Thanks for your imput Stewie.

bjw678, Don’t you think that enterprise would adopt Bitcoin, or other crypto, more readily if it didn’t have to deal with these wild price swings?
As it is now some might accept crypto payments, but I guess the majority will be converting to fiat straight away to avoid those swings, unless they are true believers and want to hodl, but most people are not speculators and want security.

Maybe you shouldn’t wish for skyrocketing prices (and massive drops) as all this will do is delay adoption?
Wouldn’t it be better if e.g. Bitcoin had a stable price of $10k or $100k or $1 million?

Also the fixed supply might in the end be a problem as it turns people into hodlers that expect price to rise through scarcity. And for money to be functional it needs to have velocity, actually being used for payments.
If everyone just hodls there is no velocity?

bjw678

Yes, a fixed value would be better, but will not be achieved until we reach an equilibrium of adoption. As demand shifts price will shift. Maybe it will never be stable, gold and fiat currencies all fluctuate in value, even after decades or centuries of use.
BTC specifically will never be money in an everyday transactional sense as the system can’t, won’t and was never designed to, support enough transactions per day to ever be practical at any sort of scale.
Gold doesn’t have a particularly high velocity either…

Maybe you shouldn’t wish for skyrocketing prices (and massive drops) as all this will do is delay adoption?

I don’t wish for anything, I am but a tiny drop of oil in an enormous machine and anything I do makes no difference to the cog I’m on let alone the entire machine.

Predicting what is likely to happen is of far more value to me, and I think the bubble cycle repeating again is by far the most likely outcome.

I don’t feel so bad aboutthe prediction in this one

The price is definitely bubbly. Months ago I made a prediction of a peak of 100k AUD and a fall back to the 10-30k range being likely for the next bubble event in btc. I’m sure it’s on MB somewhere but really can’t be bothered looking for it.

And I still can’t be bothered finding it on MB, but peak seems to be in the 80,000’s AUD, and I still see a likely fall back to the same point.

Sacha

Thinking about it again I believe that the more some cryptos will be adopted for payment, this will actually accelerate their downfall.

As long as crypto is a speculative asset and people just trade them as widgets there is no issue.
But as soon as it threatens to become a parallel payment system that people can use to escape the existing fiat structure, it will be seen as a danger to central banking because they will have no control, and so they will be regulated or legalised back to just widgets or even out of existence.

And as you say, gold has no velocity either and that is correct, you can’t buy anything directly with gold, and for central banks that is a good thing. You will have to convert it back to fiat first, so there is no danger to the existing system. They know how much you got for the gold and will be able to tax it etc. as such they still have all the control.
So maybe if Bitcoin can avoid being used for regular daily payments and more as a store of value, or digital gold, that could be its saviour. 

I’m a crypto noob, and I’m basically trying to poke holes in the ‘crypto is going to save us from the evil bankers’ story. Because if you know a little about the history of central banking then you would realise they will never give up the control of money.

I’m also not against crypto. I read about Bitcoin first around 2011-2012 on Zerohedge, and Max Keiser was mentioning it also quite early on and I found the idea behind it very compelling.

It’s interesting to discuss crypto because it makes you think about what money is/could be/should be.

Sacha

“It’s interesting to discuss crypto because it makes you think about what money is/could be/should be.”

And I think that is one of the most fundamental issues you can ponder, as so much of what kind of society you become depends on how money is created, what it is used for and who is ultimately in control.

bjw678

But as soon as it threatens to become a parallel payment system that people can use to escape the existing fiat structure, it will be seen as a danger to central banking because they will have no control, and so they will be regulated or legalised back to just widgets or even out of existence.

https://bartercard.com.au/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Tire_money
EFTPOS.
Hell, cash itself is beyond the control of CB’s in terms of actual transactions.
History says this won’t happen.
Of course Past performance is no indication of future gains etc. but until Fiat itself is not being used or accepted and things are being priced directly in crypto without an exchange rate there is no threat to the cb’s control any more than gold already is.

Sacha

“Hell, cash itself is beyond the control of CB’s in terms of actual transactions.”

Yes, it still is, that’s why they hate it and with implementation of a CBDC cash will slowly be phased out.

The reason it hasn’t happened yet historically is only because until quite recently it has been impossible to collect and handle all the data that would come from tracing any and all payments. Now with enormous expansion of the internet of things and AI and data collection this has become a possibility. And they can and will have full control eventually.

At that point if they want to tax or fine you for whatever they can just debit your account. If they want to implement negative interest rates on your savings they will take credits from your account automatically and there will be nothing you can do about it.

The higher the debt burden becomes the more important it will be to be able to tax the people. They can only be sure to have full control if there is a closed system and there will be no ‘leaks’ allowed.

bjw678

People will always find alternatives, short of a total authoritarian state willing to dole out violence regularly.
During the cold war western items were available behind the iron curtain despite restrictions. USD has replaced many local currencies for everyday use despite the objection of the resident government.
The government can try to place the restrictions but at some point people will object or just start using alternatives. To effectively ban crypto they would have to ban the internet and I think that would be pushing to the point people would fight back.

But that sort of data collection has been going on for decades at this point, flybuys has been collecting this sort of data since 1994. Anyone using a card has had the same collected for just as long. CBDC is not required to collect most of the data.

Sacha

They don’t have to ban the internet.
All they have to do is make holding crypto illegal.

Are there still going to be people that find a way to hold crypto? Sure. But most people won’t want to run the risk of getting fined or prosecuted.

I hope people will object before it is too late, but I don’t have any confidence in that. And once all we have is a CBDC there won’t be any way of objecting because your Social Credit Score will suffer.

Maybe you are an optimist, I am not, too old and seen too much.

Sacha

Test
If you see this Peachy can be deleted.
Thank you

Last edited 1 month ago by Sacha
bjw678

you keep saying that, but it isn’t true.
BSV can do 50,000 transactions a second at the expense of the decentralisation that is the central thesis of bitcoin.

Last edited 1 month ago by bjw678